Esceramic not glove counter but also cannot go up. This company is doing ceramic hand former. Should be up. Meaning this counter no one knows about it. And this counter seems to be uninterested by many funds.
Last QR was announced in late July. Naturally, you have to wait around 3 months, so probably late next month. Just click the financials tab on i3 and you can see.
As I commented earlier, Q 1 2022 profit will definitely be lower than Q4 2021 as MCO. All manufacturing plants will be impacted. So to me it's not a major event..
I thought it might be timely to repost something I put up in this thread back in June 5. Only once since I posted the comment has the price touched 46.5, very briefly intraday.
I hope it stays above 45/46 for holders. I don't hold, purely a technical exercise for me.
June 5 post below. *****************************************************
Stock: [ESCERAM]: ES CERAMICS TECHNOLOGY BHD
Jun 5, 2021 9:33 AM | Report Abuse
Technically it looks to be about to test the 7th December intraday low of 45 cents. Too early to say if yesterday's (Friday) price drop on increased volume is capitulation but if I was a holder then I'd be hoping it was.
A break below 45/46 could turn ugly, so I definitely hope that is not the outcome for holders. Downtrend Fibonacci figures for a break of 46 are, 40,33.5 and 28.5. Those numbers indicate how important this 45/46 support level is!
Disclaimer: Purely technical interest for me here as I'm not a holder. Hope you all get a price turn around next week.
Cause retailers and newbies dont know what they are buying and selling. Just follow the wind. Keep to your own investment strategy. Up and down in market is normal due to negative sentiment and positive sentiment/confidence plus some manipulation.
StockGodFatt Esceram sells formers to China should be good news for them. So why follow gloves down? 08/09/2021 2:26 PM
AGM on Tues 28th September 2021 10am. The agendas silent on few thgs that investors have been anticipating all this while 1. Declaration of Dividend 2. Application as Shariah Compliance 3. Transfer to Main Board If none of the above is in the Current management mind,and coupled with negative sentiments on Glove stocks then the future looks bleak for the price to go up. The mgmt has to wakeup and realised that with no Investor Relation exercise, there wont be much interest from insti and hence price will dwindle downwards.
Collected at 0.445. Been waiting to collect when it moved below 0.5 but been telling myself to wait and see if can collect lower. Next collection is below 0.4 if any since glove trend is overly negative now and would affect Esceramic too.
Esceramic in a unique position whether China expanding gloves capacity or Malaysia or Thailand, Esceramic will have more biz. It s not competing against China or Thailand, it is supplying to them. We only heard of newplayers starting gloves manufacturing but no big players plan to start former manufacturing since it is a more complex process and low market. Nobody is interested to earn a 10mil - 15mil per quarter biz. Only existing players can cont on with this.
With a current rolling 4 quarters EPS of 7.07 cents, I can't see why people think this is undervalued. If you were to give it a PE ratio of 10, then yes, it would be seen as undervalued but this industry is not achieving anywhere near that PE level.
I'd suggest any potential buyers consider what they think is a fair PE to set, then work from there.
Precisely agree with TreeTopView above. I was blindly speculating in this stock, until I looked into the 1:1 bonus issue done in 2019, coupled with a 1:1 warrants issued. That severely diluted the shares, increasing the issued shares by 2.5 - 3 times. Dato Tan family and ES originating shareholders are extremely shrewd, they manuevoured the stock to ride on this covid, and they cashed out with huge gains. In the past they could never unlock its value.
Even in the best of past 10 years, they struggle to NP RM5-7m per year, so once this covid and glove boom burst, my guess is RM10m max of NP. So investors can easily calc their EPS, and apply their PER to it. For me shares worth 30-35c at most.
I guess retail investors here are eternal optimist, every morsel of news, bad or worst, they twist it to compliment themselves........lol
The warrants were free and plentiful to all the substantial shareholders. At 20c conversion, they still double their money convert and dump....further diluting your shares and EPS. Which KLCI counter gets a 3x dilution of shares, and yet retailers are pegging them to some historical highs or stratosphere price.
I'm not trying to talk this share down. But just highlighting its fair fundamental value, while TreeTop's 2 post above have balanced both a FA and TA view to it.......
@emailpete, 2021 Revenue 92.9 m with Profit 30.2 m . Now doubling capacity by 4th Q and order book full for next 2 years and you say going forward max 10 m profit per year!. 4th Q profit alone was 14.5 m. They are turning away orders because order book is full. What am I missing? Please clarify as I want to learn from you....
If you purely based it on the existing production capacity in 2019, then it s already at its fair value. The growth is that Esceramic is expanding as it has acquired two plot of lands to build additional factories in Malaysia and Thailand last year. That would easily double their current production. In addition, for the next 2-3 years, many new comers join the bandwagon of manufacturing gloves and already building their new factories in China, Thailand and Malaysia. To Esceramic, it would cont to sell the former regardless if ASP for gloves down or not and these 3 countries are its market with some even to South America. With higher expansion and some which plan to even double their current production, recurring incomes for Esceramic would be higher due to wear and tear of the former within 12-18 months. In the next 2-3 years even when the pandemic subsided, Esceramic would have more clients to service and supply of formers especially for their wear and tear. For now, the business is secured for the next 2 years.
Yes, you are not wrong either. Hence each to their own valuation. As a preamble, I've walked away from this stock, made a few thousand lost back double. Small change to be honest. Riding on my "gambling streak" friend, he's still hugging his 3m shares @70c ave cost. Poor guy keeps ave down at every fall. He recently asked me how to study this stock .....
Guided him to a reasonable PER (6 or 8 or 10 years). I'm a manufacturer too, as boring a product as ES, certaiinly no rocket science or futuristic....If fact a too sharp rocket boom always leads to a major crash....
And if one thinks covid will last 10 years, then take 30.2m x 10 years = its market cap. Divide that by the huge (huge !!) paid up shares + warrants. That's your indicative fair price.
In his case, he felt maybe 1 more year of 30.2m followed by a sharp drop back to earthly profits. So him & I came to own timeline and valuation......
Just like covid, none is the wiser, each DYODD......
N.B: I'm not an active converser here. Stumbled upon Treetops posts, which I felt made the most sense....
@emailpete, thanks for sharing. To me it s worth keeping for now and monitor the price movement as esceramic may attract new big investors or acquired by the deep pockets glove manufacturers as now they have billions of cash. when they have ton of cash, the next thing they do is to do shopping. Should after two years, and there s nothing much and growth and exhausted all their orders and biz and back to normalized, we should move on.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
AdCool
3,864 posts
Posted by AdCool > 2021-09-03 14:43 | Report Abuse
Seem 0.485 is a stable price now.