Last Thurs huge volume. So Fri is T+1, this Tues is T+2 and today is T+3. Friday’s volume was small, coz of AGM with everyone adopting a “wait and see.” So, today is last day for forced selling and last chance to pick up at 0.055. 14/08/2019 10:31 AM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I tend to agree with GuaKaLuKong. His analysis is spot on, imho.Over 21 million shares traded in today's morning session and the majority was done at 5.5 sen. It's obvious, imho, the Big Boys are once again in collection mode for the next big push which is most likely just around the corner.
Good closing once again at 6 sen. A lot of late buying up at 6 sen. Up on considerable volume of more than 31million shares traded. Positive sign for next price rally.
Critically, as Jim Grant noted recently, the spread between the 10-year and three-month yields is an important indicator, James Bianco, president and eponym of Bianco Research LLC notes today. On six occasions over the past 50 years when the three-month yield exceeded that of the 10-year, economic recession invariably followed, commencing an average of 311 days after the initial signal.
Finally, Joseph Carson, former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein, notes that recessions are far from being alike and their symptoms and causes differ over time. Despite its many shapes and sizes the historical regularity that an inverted Treasury yield curve has coincided with recession has raised concern now that yields on longer-dated Treasuries have fallen been below shorter-term yields for several months running.
The power of the term spread to predict or anticipate economic recessions needs to be respected, but there are several new domestic and global factors that are present today, suggesting that the signaling effect from changes in the Treasury yield curve directly to the economy's future performance might not be as robust as it was past periods.
First, this is the first economic cycle that involved a bond-buying program by the Federal Reserve. The quantitative bond-buying program produced a technical anchoring effect at the long-end of the bond market that was not present in prior cycles. While this program did not cause a yield curve inversion by itself it did result in a flatter yield curve than what otherwise would have been the case, and as a result, it would not take much force from other factors to trigger an inversion in the term spread of yields.
Second, given the increased globalization of the financial markets the appeal and demand of long-dated US Treasury securities is often based on the yields available in other major economies. Long bond yields in a number of major economies (such Germany, Japan and France) are negative and many others (including the UK, Spain and Australia) are below 1% and that has led to an increase in global demand for long-dated US Treasury securities since yields in the US are in some cases 100 to 200 basis points over the yields of comparable maturities in other economies. That increased global demand for US securities is a new technical factor and unrelated to the performance of the US economy.
Third, this is the first time the inversion of the Treasury curve occurred with nominal yields at the short and long end that were well below the growth in nominal income and GDP (or the economy's yield curve). Why is that important? There is a direct negative consequence to the economy's performance when the cost of borrowing exceeds the growth in nominal income. At that point, the cost of new borrowing starts to become too costly, leading to a slowdown or a decline in credit use, and a weaker economy.
Although it is often overlooked, all of the Treasury yield curve inversions that have preceded recessions have coincided with an inversion in the economy's yield curve, or when short and long-term nominal rates were above the growth in nominal income and GDP. The fact that the Treasury yield curve has inverted at relatively low nominal yields, suggests that the interest rate channel is not producing the restrictive influences on the economy as it did during prior inversions and instead is actually providing a cushion (or stimulus) to the economy. Policymakers should take note of this unusual occurrence and not rush to ease policy further, saving its interest rate powder for another time.
If the Treasury curve inversion is not producing a restrictive influence on the economy as it did in the past can the US still experience a recession? Yes, but it would come from different channels.
The biggest recession risk today centers around the trade dispute between the US and China. Trade disputes have the potential to be very disruptive and contractionary and can operate through a number of channels, such as trade volumes and production, currencies and prices and asset markets.
Of all of these channels, the biggest vulnerability for the US is the equity channel since the market value of equities relative to income and GDP is at record highs, providing consumers with vast sums of liquidity and wealth. If the imposition of new tariffs and the uncertainty over what may follow triggers a de-risking and rush to exit, sparking a sustained 25% to 30% correction in the equity market that by itself could trigger a recession as it would deal a substantial blow to consumer liquidity and wealth, and an abrupt and sharp decline in spending and confidence.
That is not a forecast or a prediction but merely an observation that all recessions have been caused by some form of a demand shock, and the inverted yield curve merely highlighted the vulnerability of the economy to a potential bad outcome.
“If the imposition of new tariffs and the uncertainty over what may follow triggers a de-risking and rush to exit”
All Trump’s own doing. He’s pinned his own re-election to the Dow and he’s now caught between a rock and a hard place. Only thing that’s certain is you can expect another tweet from him to cause Wall Street to soar in the next trading session. As sure as day follows night, you can be certain of that! History’s greatest market manipulator has done so time and again, tweeting the market up and down! It’s happened so many times, it’s now a given. I’ve always profited from a Trump-induced market fall coz I know the next day will be a Trump-induced market pump! I’m going in today to buy kau kau.
that diehardunited need to eat a chill pill. one day writes article ask to sell, next day write article ask to buy lol no credibility should stop writing at all
I’ve been long time follower of this stock , and I know the pattern. This month will go around. 0.055- 0.060 . Then will one time will go deep down. To 0.040 - 0.045 for short while .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
iluminati
112 posts
Posted by iluminati > 2019-08-14 12:11 | Report Abuse
yes if possible buy and hold!!!