Dear Mikecyc, please stop spamming..... as told you before, Careplus did not spend a single cent to buy back careglove. Descarpack still owe them money, so they just write off the debt. Below link for your reference. Btw, what's the point sharing financial result for FY17 & FY18? You invest for the future of the company, not the past. Descarpack have about 24mil debt throughout the years, I guess that is why they are showing negative profit in the past, now different story already....
Yes , he gets a high when you name him and address him . Just ignore his comments like all of us . He must be burning inside because he could not poop and scoop . Every hour is here
Don't forget winter is coming, cases are gonna spike up once more. Vacinne is far from ready. Even it is ready, to distribute the vacinne to the whole world in a short period of time is impossible.
Dialling back to the basics Diving into sustainable fair values following two bumper years Recent volatility in sector share prices despite no change in fundamentals has led us to question if investors are now looking beyond two years of stellar earnings growth. Valuations are undoubtedly attractive across glove-makers, in our view, at single-digit PEs pegged to peak 12-month forward earnings, further backed by c.5%-9% dividend yields. However, we aim to provide a yardstick for investors by capturing both the value of the short-term boom period coupled with the long-term value from higher, sustainable earnings. This exercise still yields upside potential for glove stocks from current share prices, further affirming our Overweight stance on the sector.
Tying in our base case and timeline >The mass availability of an effective Covid-19 vaccine, especially in the glove-makers key US market, will ndeniably spell the end of the sector’s hyper-normal era. >Our base case assumes a mass vaccination by mid-2021, and that the vaccination process coupled with restocking activity will sustain utilisation rates. >Our near-term ASPs therefore continue to price-in an uptrend up until mid-2021 where we expect price-leader, Top Glove’s ASPs to converge with that of peers Hartalega and Kossan. We subsequently expect the three glove makers to see the gradual normalization of their ASPs at c.US$50/1,000 pcs for nitrile gloves by end-2021. >The key risk to our base case is potential oversupply from new entrants, although see this as unlikely given constraints in synthetic latex raw materials, whereby we estimate the global raw material supply to just be sufficient to meet the current demand of the major glove players (Figure 5).
End-users will likely be conditioned-to higher ASPs in two years >A major conundrum amongst investors is on where ASPs will land post-demand normalisation which we expect to be in mid-2022. >We take the view price stickiness will lead to longer-term nitrile ASPs of c.US$30/1,000pcs, and latex ASPs to average at US$22/1,000 pcs. This translates to a 35%/15% higher sustainable increase versus pre-Covid-19 levels. >Inelastic glove demand coupled with a limited number of players controlling the lion’s share of global glove capacity are prime factors for higher sustainable ASPs. After 2-3 years of hyper-normal ASPs, end-users will have been conditioned for high ASPs, in our view, while there is limited incentive for manufacturers or distributors to lower the prices in quick succession due to inelastic demand.
Valuing the short-term boom while considering the longer-term earnings base >The glove mania has split investors along two camps with one arguing it is unreasonable for the sector trades at single-to-low double-digit forward 12-month multiples while the second argues it is unrealistic to pay a mean multiple on peak forward earnings which are unsustainable. Both views have merits. >With market expectations of supernormal profits increasingly being priced-in, it is necessary to value the sector from the perspective of a long-term strategic investor, where we still see significant value being derived on a medium-term horizon. >Our revised valuation methodology discounts at the cost of equity the FCFE during the boom period (FY20-23) and the target market cap at the end of the boom period by employing a target PE multiple on sustainable earnings and ASPs.
Maintain BUY ratings post-earnings revisions and valuation methodology changes >Hartalega: We forecast FY21/22/23 (Mar) NP of RM3.1/RM4.7/RM2.0bn (+5.6x/+50%/-56% YoY). We lower our target price from RM25 to RM20 implying an FY22CL PE of 15x and a 21CL yield of c.7%. >Top Glove: We forecast FY20/21/22 (Aug) NP at RM1.8/RM11.2/RM4.2bn (+64%/+5.2x/-63% YoY). We lift our target price from RM9.33 to RM10.00 (bonus adjusted), implying a FY21CL PE of 7x and a 21CL yield of 9%. >Kossan Rubber: We forecast FY20/21/22 (Dec) NP of RM758m/RM2.5bn/RM830m (+2.4x/+2.3x/-67% YoY). We lower our target price from RM17.40 to RM16.10 implying a FY21CL PE of 8x and a 21CL yield of c.5%.
Continue holding, Top Glove QR is coming out on 17th Sep. Once they are out, careplus will fly high too because people will come to careplus for affordable glove share. This week is good week. Hang in there!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mikecyc
45,136 posts
Posted by Mikecyc > 2020-09-14 09:05 |
Post removed.Why?