pity those panic selling this morning. just read the maybank investment article just now, still foreseen the merger will go through.the press also saying EPF might selling its stake to 3rd party in order to vote in the meeting
There is more uncertainties now with regards to the deal. A 3rd party has to buy over EPF's stake of CIMB at RM 7.27 a share, the block will cost RM 8.8 Bil. With CIMB presently at 6.30 plus, which party would be interested? Not forgetting the 3rd party has to pay RM10 plus for the RHB shares and RM 2.82 for MBSB, when both counters have not reached that price at all. The merger may go through, but will MBSB shareholders be offered the same price of 2.82 or possibly lower? That is the question.
Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd also said Bursa's decision could “throw a spanner in the works”.
But Kenanga said that did not mean the planned merger would fall through.
“Although this development could throw a spanner in the works, it does not mean that the proposed merger will come crumbling down so long as there is strong support from other shareholders ex-EPF,” Kenanga said.
anyway, i dun mind collecting if it drops back to 2.2X. Cause MBSB has a history to be a great dividend collector. And those Arab boys have held back on dividend payout to bolster balance sheet.
Also resorted to Share Option Scheme to give out shares directly to themselves rather that giving dividnd out blankly in the market.
if deal don't go through likely this year's Q4 dividend will be about 16-20 cents per share cause have held back for 2 quarters. if there greedy, probably announce 8-10cents on q3 dividend, but that depends on the deal.
IF it is a wayang; i'll play the script like this. Kasi drama and make a killing in the market. a) During nego. someone will leak out ARab fellas want 2.5X NTA. at RM3.25 b) Upon which CIMB says need few days to think. c) Next day market go crazy. Arab boys and big players sell off shares. d) The say ok, nego back to 2.9X. Everyone wins. TWICE!
While I don't see MBSB dropping to 2.2x in the near future, neither do I see the Arab boys wanting MBSB at price anywhere near 3.00. Ever since BNM came out with strict guidelines on personal loans, EPF have been trying to get rid of its huge shareholdings of MBSB. RHB has gone through the books of MBSB and has no appetite to take up MBSB as MBSB is far from ready or qualified to be a full fledged bank. CIMB is dying to be the biggest bank, so EPF is willing to divest its RHB block provided CIMB takes up its (EPF) MBSB shares. It could be many more months before anything definite will materialise, in the meantime, those who had hoped for a quick killing will have their money stuck for at least another year.
thanks apprentice....this is just the truth...im not trying to splash cold water to anyone...abu dhabi already upset over this deal where they have no say...what for they want to buy at 2.82 now?...dont u realise today u can easily buy mbsb at 2.56??...funds are already unloading...
If dont belive the merger will sucess or not...pls throw your holding share of MBSB...dont waste time .....because i trust this counter can achive to 2.82 or more....if unsucess of merger this counter still have its value ....its time frame only....
maybe we can think ... 1. why epf wanna merge this 3 bank? 2. if mbsb not worth 2.82, why they agree during meeting? anyone will do losing business? 3. if you are those big shot, how u gonna do to max yr profit on this merger? 4. relationship btw cimb, epf, khazanah, mbsb
out of this few, i believe q3 is the most interesting part, we cant fight big shot but we can follow them
bmwm5 got a point there. This merger is definitely a plus for CIMB and whoever owns the bigger chuck of CIMB. No one will wanna do loosing business. Unless there is a more attractive and bigger benefit offer by the Arabs behind close door for this meager not to go thru. And that my friend is another story.
bmwm5, please get your facts right. There are no 3 banks, only 2. MBSB is a building society set up to build houses and provide housing loans. They have 'expanded' their business and gone into personal loans while not adhering to BNM guidelines. EPF is only a major shareholder of MBSB and has no control of how MBSB runs its business. EPF wants to dispose of its share in MBSB and the 2.82 is put up to keep shareholders happy. Its not their money to spend, so why not? Looking at the price of CIMB and RHB today, it is obvious both the bank's shareholders are unimpressed with the deal.
Can MBSB go on its own, ie without the merger? Of course it can but will it be able to fetch 2.82? With the household debt at 86.8% at end of last year, there are not many who qualify for loans anymore. More worrying is the NPL and non collateral loans taken in by MBSB. And now CIMB may have to carry the baby.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
98265
82 posts
Posted by 98265 > 2014-10-23 08:46 | Report Abuse
Faced to the reality. It wont up today!