RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS OF MRCB : A REALITY CHECK (PROMPTED BY RECENT EXTREME VOLATILITY OF ITS SHARE PRICES DUE TO LATEST REPORTS) MRCB still in talks with govt on EDL concession termination ============================================= Asked how the compensation would impact MRCB’s financials, Affin Hwang Capital Research analyst Loong Chee Wei told SunBiz that the compensation is expected to improve the earnings and cash flow of the group, adding that the estimated RM70 million cash compensation per annum to MRCB should be sufficient to offset the group’s losses incurred due to interest expense, amortisation as well as operating costs. Nevertheless, Loong said there is still uncertainty on whether the government will take over the debts of the EDL concession. “If not, the compensation is just sufficient to defray the total costs of operating the expressway but does not generate a good return on investment,” he added. The 8.1km EDL was built at a cost of RM1.2 billion. The government will reportedly settle an amount of RM2.2 billion to PLUSMalaysia Bhd for the abolishment of tolls in three other locations, namely Batu Tiga, Sg Rasau in Selangor and Bukit Kayu Hitam in Kedah, as announced under Budget 2018.
(NOT LOGICAL AND UNREALISTIC FOR GOVT TO ABSORB MRCB’S SUKUK RM1B LOAN. OTHERWISE GOVT ALSO HAVE TO ABSORB PLUSMALAYSIA’S DEBTS RELATED TO ABOLISHMENTS OF PLUS’s 3 TOLL CONCESSIONS)
IF THE GOVT DO NOT TAKE OVER EDL’S RM1B LOAN IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ADVERSELY IMPACT MRCB’S RISKS PROFILE WHICH WILL REMAIN VERY HIGHLY GEARED AT RM4B
MRCB-Quill REIT's Q4 net profit down 80% on deficit in revaluation =================================================== PETALING JAYA: MRCB-Quill REIT's (MQREIT) net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 plunged 80% on a RM18.2 million deficit in revaluation of its investment properties. It made a net profit of RM3.3 million for the quarter under review, compared with Rm16.9 million for the same quarter in 2016. The REIT comprises of 10 buildings worth a market value of RM2.2 billion as at Dec 31, 2017 (THIS PROVED THAT TOD/TRANSPORT HUB CONNECTED PROPERTIES CAN ALSO BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY ANY PROPERTY DOWNTURN )
CIMB Research optimistic on YTL Corp securing HSR contract ================================================ KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 17): Following YTL Corp Bhd emerging as one of the five known joint venture (JV) consortiums bidding for the project delivery partner (PDP), operating company (OpCo) and assets company (AssetsCo) tenders for the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR), CIMB Research views this positively as it could increase its chances of securing an HSR contract. According to its research note yesterday, the key catalysts for YTL Corp are the rail contract wins and the new HSR tender details. The research house emphasised its optimism on YTL Corp’s chances to bid for the HSR’s rail operating company (OpCo) tender. CIMB Research explained the OpCo tenders would be more relevant to YTL Corp, given its experience in the 45%-owned Express Rail Link (ERL) — the sole domestic high speed rail service concession built at only RM35 million per km cost — arguably the lowest cost in the region. “As such, the OpCo would therefore be the most relevant tender for YTL Corp’s ERL, given ERL’s 14-year track record in operating its 57km high speed rail service (both direct airport express and transit service),” CIMB Research said. “While the press had recently reported that the group secured the RM8.9 billion Gemas-JB rail project contract (via a JV with SIPP Rail Sdn Bhd), the group has yet to make an official announcement, which we suspect is pending finalisation of details of the contract,” the research house said.
THE ABOVE NEGATIVE REPORTS HAD MADE ME BECOME LESS OPTIMISTIC OF MRCB’S PROSPECTS. WILL REVIEW FURTHER WHEN MORE REPORTS ARE RECEIVED
Precisely due to recent negative news of EDL compensation delay, Ytl being contender for Hsr PDP, fear of short term Esos (Rm1.07) to staff & MQReit Marked down valuation there is a sell down of Mrcb shares.
“NOT LOGICAL AND UNREALISTIC FOR GOVT TO ABSORB MRCB’S SUKUK RM1B LOAN. OTHERWISE GOVT ALSO HAVE TO ABSORB PLUSMALAYSIA’S DEBTS RELATED TO ABOLISHMENTS OF PLUS’s 3 TOLL CONCESSIONS)
IF THE GOVT DO NOT TAKE OVER EDL’S RM1B LOAN IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ADVERSELY IMPACT MRCB’S RISKS PROFILE WHICH WILL REMAIN VERY HIGHLY GEARED AT RM4B “
I STILL BELIEVE MY ABOVE RATIONALE POINTING TO THE EDL RELATED SUKUK LOAN OF RM1 B WILL NOT BE ABSORBED BY THE GOVT. IT IS TOO GLARING AND WILL BE SEVERELY CRITICISED BY THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC THAT IT IS A BAILOUT.
HOW CAN THE GOVT COMPENSATE MRCB FOR LOSS OF TOLL COLLECTION AND STILL HAVE ITS EDL RELATED RM1B LOAN ABSORBED BY THE GOVT. I AM SURE PLUS-MALAYSIA WILL ALSO DEMAND SUCH AN OVER GENEREOUS DEAL
UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN. IT IS TOO UNREASONABLE AND TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE
BN govn stupid. If we in power wait until GE over only decide pay or not for EDL. HSR the more bidders the merrier. Why not China and Japan bid to consider as well?
WOULD LIKE TO ADD ONE MORE POINT. MRCB STILL NEEDS TO PAY EPF RM738M CASH FOR FOR ITS J/V WITH EPF FOR KUWASA DAMANSARA BCOS THE LAND BELONGS TO EPF. ITS WAS REPORTED EARLIER BY MACQUARIE EQUITIES RESEARCH THAT MRCB WILL BE TAKING A NEW LOAN FOR THIS PAYMENT. HENCE ITS REVISED TOTAL BORROWINGS WILL INCREASE TO RM4.73B FIRST
Mrcb will be a Cash Rich Company after Assets disposal.
In any case debt is not totally wrong if it is backed by Assets & with multiplying future growth.
Why Public Banks lent out monies?
Because the Customers know how to make monies from the borrowings & in turn repay Public Bank with good interests.
For Singapore Govt its Debt is even higher than its GDP
How come Singapore Govt got so high debt? More than Malaysia?
Answer:
Singapore Govt is very wise to borrow monies from CPF & invest in higher yielding Assets all over the world like Student Accommodation in Germany, Healthcare Stocks in Malaysia & other Income Generating Assets.
So is MRCB. Debt used productively will add Value & Amplify Profits
Go in slow and steady not sure how the market react yet. Like I said there will number of up/down wave before it reach 1.8. How long it would take to reach 1.8 is the question!
BTW, Gamuda-MRCB competitor in HSR PDP should be IJM-SUNWAY and 2 influencial Sarawak Corp, they r top 2 and top 3 player in the industry. It is not easy to win in this tender. YTL just tender for HSR OpCo. I also hope MRCB is competing with YTL.
Winner , in MRCB case this share has been going up for a period of time I personally think it might has met its limit should come down a while before it can reach a new high. Please be honest and comment according to fact to be respected, check the technical chart. For those who got stuck better average down when it goes lower. Still highly recommend this counter!
Generally true that business loans when used productively and in a strong economy can be positive. But highly geared companies carry higher risks :- 1) Reduced profit margins due to high interest costs 2) Rising interest rate environment (like now) will aggravate (1) above 3) Higher risks of loan defaulting when a company become highly geared with excessive borrowings especially during general economic recessions or hit by cyclical downturns in specific industries/economic sectors. Examples include our Oil & Gas sector which was very badly hit by the collapse of crude oil prices during the past few years. Many highly geared O&G companies incurred heavy losses and defaulted on their loans/bonds. Their share prices collapsed (some to only a fraction of their prices during good times. Many listed O&G company share prices are still very low even with some recovery in crude prices)
Now our Property Sector is currently in its downturn. Our Property Sector had been downgraded due to excessive over supplies and increasing unsold overhangs. Property companies with high gearings can be hit by the same problems that affected the O&G companies. Bank Negara and our Govt had already sounded their alarm over our property sector. Banks who gave excessive loans to O&G sector sufferred heavy losses on delinquent loans. Now Banks can also exposed to non performing loans given to the property developers.
PROPERTY SECTOR (LIKE O&G SECTOR) IS CYCLICAL IN ITS BUSINESS PROSPECTS THE CURRENT PROPERTY SECTOR DOWNTURN ARE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTY DEVELOPERS’ BUSINESSES :-
The latest poorer 4Q results of MRCB-Quill Reits is a case in point :- MRCB-Quill REIT's Q4 net profit down 80% on deficit in revaluation Posted on 19 January 2018 - 01:32pm Last updated on 19 January 2018 - 03:32pm sunbiz@thesundaily.com Print PETALING JAYA: MRCB-Quill REIT's (MQREIT) net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 plunged 80% on a RM18.2 million deficit in revaluation of its investment properties.
Another case in point was Rating Agency’s recent report :- MRCB Southern Link Sukuk on rating watch, negative outlook KUALA LUMPUR: RAM Ratings has placed the BB3 rating of MRCB Southern Link Bhd’s RM845mil senior Sukuk on rating watch, with a negative outlook.
LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 13-Dec-2017 Disposed 2,250,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 11-Dec-2017 Disposed 76,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 08-Dec-2017 Disposed 1,142,100 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 07-Dec-2017 Disposed 348,500 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 06-Dec-2017 Disposed 2,750,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 30-Nov-2017 Disposed 2,246,600 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 29-Nov-2017 Disposed 6,000,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 29-Nov-2017 Disposed 96,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 07-Nov-2017 Disposed 700,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 06-Jul-2017 Disposed 300,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 18-May-2017 Disposed 1,293,100 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 17-May-2017 Disposed 3,217,500 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 17-May-2017 Disposed 216,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 16-May-2017 Disposed 2,200,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 15-May-2017 Disposed 2,083,700 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 12-May-2017 Disposed 2,000,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 11-May-2017 Disposed 3,000,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 11-May-2017 Disposed 411,700 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 09-May-2017 Disposed 235,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 09-May-2017 Disposed 82,400 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 08-May-2017 Disposed 574,500 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 08-May-2017 Disposed 298,900 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 05-Apr-2017 Disposed 1,000,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 03-Apr-2017 Disposed 277,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 31-Mar-2017 Disposed 41,100 0.000 View Detail https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/1651.jsp?type=Dispositions
LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 05-Jan-2018 Acquired 1,257,900 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 03-Jan-2018 Acquired 2,255,200 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 03-Jan-2018 Acquired 1,086,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 13-Dec-2017 Disposed 2,250,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 11-Dec-2017 Disposed 76,000 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 08-Dec-2017 Disposed 1,142,100 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 07-Dec-2017 Disposed 348,500 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 06-Dec-2017 Disposed 2,750,000 0.000 View Detail
LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 05-Jan-2018 Acquired (BUY!!) 1,257,900 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 03-Jan-2018 Acquired (BUY!!) 2,255,200 0.000 View Detail LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 03-Jan-2018 Acquired (BUY!!) 1,086,000 0.000 View Detail
I collect mrcb warrants due to weakness until out of fund. Bonus from company only come out in March. Haiz. Gonna miss the low price buying opportunity. May need to buy higher price in March. Hopefully can still catch the train around 1.60 by March and not higher than that.
MRT2 projects at Cyberjaya City valued at RM148 millionCyberjaya City project which it will invest RM229 million for a controlling stake. See the link with the MRT2 project.Big one - Kwasa Damansara which it will subscribe for probably the most premium land (commercial center) there for 70% stake - project called MX1 - costing RM737.88 million.project delivery partner for LRT3 with George Kent - the project is a RM9 billion project.partnership with Gamuda to bid for High Speed Rail project - which I think the partnership has a fairly good chance of winning considering that Gamuda has experience in the MRT1 and MRT2 while as mentioned MRCB is working on the LRT3 with another partner.
U want bullish? Chart cannot help u. Only this rabbit can help u. Offer me tribute and sacrifice a hundred bulls...then i see whether i happy or not. Kekekekeke
Why mrcb got alot move like ri and sell debt? Because must have qualiflier before get bigger project.. Mrcb sure have bigger coming..donnot which 1 coming first..
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
darrenliew
968 posts
Posted by darrenliew > 2018-01-21 16:16 | Report Abuse
RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS OF MRCB : A REALITY CHECK
(PROMPTED BY RECENT EXTREME VOLATILITY OF ITS SHARE PRICES DUE TO LATEST REPORTS)
MRCB still in talks with govt on EDL concession termination
=============================================
Asked how the compensation would impact MRCB’s financials, Affin Hwang Capital Research analyst Loong Chee Wei told SunBiz that the compensation is expected to improve the earnings and cash flow of the group, adding that the estimated RM70 million cash compensation per annum to MRCB should be sufficient to offset the group’s losses incurred due to interest expense, amortisation as well as operating costs.
Nevertheless, Loong said there is still uncertainty on whether the government will take over the debts of the EDL concession.
“If not, the compensation is just sufficient to defray the total costs of operating the expressway but does not generate a good return on investment,” he added.
The 8.1km EDL was built at a cost of RM1.2 billion.
The government will reportedly settle an amount of RM2.2 billion to PLUSMalaysia Bhd for the abolishment of tolls in three other locations, namely Batu Tiga, Sg Rasau in Selangor and Bukit Kayu Hitam in Kedah, as announced under Budget 2018.
(NOT LOGICAL AND UNREALISTIC FOR GOVT TO ABSORB MRCB’S SUKUK RM1B LOAN.
OTHERWISE GOVT ALSO HAVE TO ABSORB PLUSMALAYSIA’S DEBTS RELATED TO
ABOLISHMENTS OF PLUS’s 3 TOLL CONCESSIONS)
IF THE GOVT DO NOT TAKE OVER EDL’S RM1B LOAN IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ADVERSELY IMPACT MRCB’S RISKS PROFILE WHICH WILL REMAIN VERY HIGHLY GEARED AT RM4B
MRCB-Quill REIT's Q4 net profit down 80% on deficit in revaluation
===================================================
PETALING JAYA: MRCB-Quill REIT's (MQREIT) net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 plunged 80% on a RM18.2 million deficit in revaluation of its investment properties.
It made a net profit of RM3.3 million for the quarter under review, compared with Rm16.9 million for the same quarter in 2016.
The REIT comprises of 10 buildings worth a market value of RM2.2 billion as at Dec 31, 2017
(THIS PROVED THAT TOD/TRANSPORT HUB CONNECTED PROPERTIES CAN ALSO BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY ANY PROPERTY DOWNTURN )
CIMB Research optimistic on YTL Corp securing HSR contract
================================================
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 17): Following YTL Corp Bhd emerging as one of the five known joint venture (JV) consortiums bidding for the project delivery partner (PDP), operating company (OpCo) and assets company (AssetsCo) tenders for the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR), CIMB Research views this positively as it could increase its chances of securing an HSR contract.
According to its research note yesterday, the key catalysts for YTL Corp are the rail contract wins and the new HSR tender details.
The research house emphasised its optimism on YTL Corp’s chances to bid for the HSR’s rail operating company (OpCo) tender.
CIMB Research explained the OpCo tenders would be more relevant to YTL Corp, given its experience in the 45%-owned Express Rail Link (ERL) — the sole domestic high speed rail service concession built at only RM35 million per km cost — arguably the lowest cost in the region.
“As such, the OpCo would therefore be the most relevant tender for YTL Corp’s ERL, given ERL’s 14-year track record in operating its 57km high speed rail service (both direct airport express and transit service),” CIMB Research said.
“While the press had recently reported that the group secured the RM8.9 billion Gemas-JB rail project contract (via a JV with SIPP Rail Sdn Bhd), the group has yet to make an official announcement, which we suspect is pending finalisation of details of the contract,” the research house said.
THE ABOVE NEGATIVE REPORTS HAD MADE ME BECOME LESS OPTIMISTIC OF MRCB’S PROSPECTS. WILL REVIEW FURTHER WHEN MORE REPORTS ARE RECEIVED