Nothing in stock investing comes with absolute 100% certainty, if that is what anybody us expecting.
All you can do is conduct your own appropriate diligence. At the end of the day, it is then your own personal individual call. Whatever happens later, it is all just your own call. Can't go blaming anybody else.
You might decide to take zero risk & just walk away. Or you might want to take some measured calculated risk with your own informed judgement & give yourself the chance of making some good gains.
I would choose a penny stock over a third or second liner anytime. Becos the price is much cheaper, so you can ride on volume.
For example, say you have 100k to play with. If you play a 10 sen stock, you can be playing 1,000 big lots. From which, rveru 1 senngain will give you 10k profit.
But if you play a RM1 stock, you can only play 100 big lots. And you would need a 10 sen gain to make 10k profit.
Point is, it is much, much easier for a 10 sen stock to rise 1 sen, than for a RM1 stock to rise 10 sen. Becos a 10 sen stock is much lighter & much more agile, so much easier to push up & move up.
I personally would not be going around looking for something of hunky dory perfection & rock solid stability. Becos this kind of stock would then not be having that much upside for me, their price would already be around top level.
Rather, I would be scouting for something in kind of somewhat distressed condition, but whose three or four most recent quarter reports show earlier stages of a turnaround, or even just verging on a turnaround, whose then current price was hovering not far above their all time lows e.g. TDM, RSawit etc. around March - April 2019.
I would also be zooming my search onto a business or industry sector that is also showing early stages of a turnaround or just verging on a turnaround. Around the same period in 2018 it was O&G. This time around it was palm oil.
1) Health care is good business. Healthcare business provide more consistent income, and it will not affected by commodities price or weather changes. That why, health care business will entitled for higher PE (i.e 15-25 times) compare to plantation (i.e. 10-15 times PE).
2) Health care business has no bad debt issue. The cash flow is very strong, that why many investor like Health Care business. Recently Hong Leong Group has buy the Columbia Hospital at very very high price, this proof that cash rich investor are looking for healthcare business.
3) Compare to 10 years ago, more n more people have medical card. Compare to 10 years ago, the medical card claim value is always capped to XX thousand per year, XXX thousand per life time. But now, most of the medical card in market are having XXX thousand annual limit, and unlimited claim for lifetime. I remember I study a report before, more than 70% of the patient in private hospital are using medical card to pay for their bill. So for those who using medical card, they dont bother how much the medical cost, because all will be borned by the insurance company.
So if you are buying on RSAWIT, you are putting a single betting the commodities price.
But if you buying on TDM, you are like betting on commodities, plus buying a insurance on the healthcare business.
Currently TDM own 4 hospital, if TDM really plan to listed the healthcare unit, it could easily worth RM800m - RM1bil. If the hospital unit can generate PAT RM40mil per annum, or RM10mil per quarter, then I am pretty sure it will worth RM800mil.
Newbie4444, no need to be cracking your head big time on the pure technicals, academics & fundamentals of it. Generally, they do not work.
Better be saving a good part of your mind for thinking with guided internal analysis & inspired gut instinct.
Take it from me. Stock prices do not follow fundamentals. This is a myth only propagated by the textbooks. The real market is guided much much more - 75 to 80% at the very least - by mood & perception of the investing community, including you & me. And the skill & competence to jufge this mood & perception, you can only pick up gradually through actual real world investing experience.
Yes. I have also read that the healthcare division is eventually going to be separated & listed under a different company. So, that part is going to be a separate listed subsidiary of TDM.
This forum is open for talk and sharing. of coz i have my own opinion to share what i know about TDM. Anyway, no worry about that. The time will prove everything.
This is good news ... will further support the demand side of cpo while supply is not . This will give rise to further fcpo price increase , and tdm price upwards push next few days
More and more countries will follow implement Biodiesel in 2020s.....palm oil in high demand but supplies are less....... CPO price to continue uptrend moving forward.
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Posted by BeastOfTheEast > 2020-01-01 07:54 | Report Abuse
Nothing in stock investing comes with absolute 100% certainty, if that is what anybody us expecting.
All you can do is conduct your own appropriate diligence. At the end of the day, it is then your own personal individual call. Whatever happens later, it is all just your own call. Can't go blaming anybody else.
You might decide to take zero risk & just walk away. Or you might want to take some measured calculated risk with your own informed judgement & give yourself the chance of making some good gains.