Steel tariff fears have subsided and broad market is less volatile now. Huaan took such a bad beating over the last 2 weeks and it is worthy to have at least some technical rebound.. But why is it doing so badly? Is there something going terribly wrong with the company's fundamentals and core business that we are missing?
Yesterday, I was looking at Southern Steel. It had dropped from the recent high of RM 2.37 in Feb 18 to 1.67 yesterday, despite reporting good result last quarter. A drop of close to 30% with very low vol traded.
So, Hua An is not alone. The only difference is Hua An had more speculative interest previously.
I am very positive about this coming QR as coke price were up by at least 10% comparing to previous QR. The 3 ovens cannot be shut down without any reasons exept planned maintenance, so this means production is as usual.
In my opinion, this QR should show at least 33 milions in gross profit.
The question here is what would the opperator do, or keep doing? keep pressing down or release their hands?.
I am sure that the current share fall has to do with multiple factors such as market sentiment related to steel tariffs, potantial trade war with China, potantial fall in prices, weak share holders, fear, and most of all a strong and fearless opperators who manage to use this sentiment to press the share down with minimum cost and taking opportunity to collect at cheap price. By now he should have been able to collect 90 to 95 % of floating shares.
Neverless, I am confident that the Company fundamental are still intact and stronger then ever especially the winter season is over and the coming 6 month will see even better outlook. The weaker quarters are actualy each year from Nov to March. With QR4 Y17 shows 30 milions in gross profit is realy a good sign. Now the share trade volume came down to below 20 milions a day and the share value is about same as EPS value, this means we are in the phase of consolidation, and right time to start buying back the share.
Anyway, my advise to you to study the company and market first befor you decide. I have done mine.
To consider whether this is a good stock, check out this report by the world coal organisation:
"Increasing Demand for Steel Over the last 35 years steel production worldwide has almost doubled, from less than 600 million tonnes (Mt) in 1970 to around 1.2 billion tonnes in 2006. The period 2000-2006 has seen unprecedented growth, with global figures rising over 47%. Coal & Steel 3 Much of the demand for steel is being driven by the strong and rapid economic growth of China and India. In 2006, economic growth rates in those countries were 11% and 9% respectively. With a population of over 1 billion in India, and almost 1.3 billion in China, the demand for products and services has fuelled an almost insatiable demand for steel. China and India together consumed over 445Mt of steel in 2006, around 40% of total global crude steel consumption. This is set to continue as India is projected to eclipse China in population size by 2025 and the two countries will account for around 36% of the global population. Rapid urbanisation worldwide is driving demand still further – as cities grow, housing, water and electricity are urgently required. Transport links must be expanded to meet the geographical growth of urban and peri-urban areas. The availability and reliability of modern communication systems also becomes ever more important as urban economies become more sophisticated. Around 4.9 billion people are expected to be urban-dwellers by 2030 - 60% of the world’s population. This will place huge pressure on existing infrastructure and create significant demand for housing, better transport systems, communications networks, energy, sanitation and healthcare. Coal will continue to play a major part in the manufacture of the world’s steel for the foreseeable future. The well-supplied world market means that metallurgical coal can be delivered worldwide, facilitating the manufacture of steels which will ultimately deliver the goods and services that growing economies demand."
Why are people looking only to China and not India? Read this: "India will be the single largest driver of global steel demand growth over the next 20 years. Finished steel consumption in the country grew significantly between 2010 and 2015, rising from 63 Mt to over 80 Mt, and CRU forecasts that consumption will surpass 100 Mt by 2021 and grow to near 280 Mt by 2035."
The internet holds a wealth of knowledge before investing. I had been watching comments on Huaan and it amuses me that one only needs to search the right words to know whether to buy, hold or sell, without losing sleep.
Just for info. About 85% of all China steel sold localy to Chinese infrastructures and manufactures in China. 14% exported to the global market outside US and only 1% goes to US ( about 800,000 t). So we can all agree that there should be no impact due to steel tariffs.
The other 60 bilions global tariffs on Chinese products are mainly targeting on tech equipments, toys, houhold, etc.. these tariffs will not impact the Chinese steel production at all.
Remember that China trade volume globaly is more than 7 trillions usd/ year.
Agreed with GM68 and bowman, very good analysis and outlook for steel demand. I think this is the best time to collect Huaan at this low price, or you will miss the rocket which is flying high soon.
Sorry to speak out but I noticed a lot people saying this counter is good and supported by fundamental, especially closed green. A lot of analysis and bla bla bla. I hope u guys are correct. But somehow the price was down about 45% from 60c plus since qr released with profit. I totally feels weird. Just a sharing anyway.
U & yr dumb gang lost $500+k when it tumbled from 66c to 32.5c...luckily everyone learnt from yr first pump & dump attempt...notice no one respond to yr offer compared to >20 begging u the last time LOLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!
I only earned $56k from selling down my Huaan from 63c to 36.5c lately but much much BETTER than yr $500k+ loss!
Extracted from investing.com (updated to 30 Mar 2018)
Average metallurgical coke price comparison: 1 Jan 2018 to 30 Mar 2018 RMB2,106 1 Oct 2017 to 31 Dec 2017 RMB2,016
Average coking coal price comparison: 1 Jan 2018 to 30 Mar 2018 RMB1,339 1 Oct 2017 to 31 Dec 2017 RMB1,176
Average GP Margin / GP %: 1 Jan 2018 to 30 Mar 2018 RMB767 / 36.4% 1 Oct 2017 to 31 Dec 2017 RMB840 / 41.7%
GP margin has dropped MARGINALLY during this quarter as compared with the previous quarter. If the previous quarter can have RM30Mil GP as reported, assuming all things being equal (such as demand although many reports seem to report higher domestic demand in China) the coming quarter's results won't be too far off after all. A drop of 4.7% in GP margin does not appear to affect the fundamentals of the business that much given the fact that previous quarter's opex is only about RM4+Mil.
While NTA is lower than the share price as someone highlighted, this does not appear to be an appropriate valuation technique for a manufacturing business like Huaan.
Medium to Long term shareholders - what do you think?
Spectre007, fully agree with your comparison, however,
-the average cost of raw material is less than RMB1,250, because Huaan buy his coal material unwashed as he have his own washing line and this make this quarter margin in the range of 40% almost same as previous quarter.
-in addition we need not to forget the additional sale of by product whitch is increasing every quarter and count for 20% of Huaan revenue.
The currency fluctuation between RMB and MYR is neglegiable.
To be noted that Jan to Mar is winter time and usualy the price of met coke goes down however this year the price went up suggesting that demand for steel was very strong and it look like the summer period the average price will further go up. It is wiser to keep monitoring the met coke sale price with or without hedging.
In the first quarter, China's steel companies defied expectations for a winter lull and continued to ramp up output in response to strong sales, while boosting borrowing, capital expenditure and hiring.
That would keep synchronized global growth on track for a while longer. But economists are sticking to forecasts that China's pace will slow to around 6.5 percent by the end of the year, weighed down by the cooling property market and rising borrowing costs, even if there are no global trade shocks.
The Trump administration slapped hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum imports last week and then targeted China specifically by announcing plans for additional tariffs of up to $60 billion of Chinese goods, which are expected to focus largely on its tech and telecommunications products.
My opinion is that all steel related stocks including Huaan were affected by Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trump's ultimate goal is to impose the additional tariffs on Usd60 billions worth of China's goods and this is to protect their intellectual property against China's tech and Telecom products. This has nothing to do with steel related productions.
With the above news about China March factory growth stronger than expected, I am sure investors must have already seen through this and they must have been collecting more steel related shares from weak holders at this low price as there are fears and worries about the downtrend of steel stocks. I am confident that steel stocks will come back stronger than expected and it would be too late for those who already sold their shares and intend to chase back...
Lets not forget China 2030 target and its ambition for Asia and Africa continent and increased defence budget for 2018, more steel is required domesticaly and globaly.
China have reduced its export tariffs on steel in Jan 2018, to counter US import tariffs.
most welcome stockmoney,most important thing is we don't waste time with low life fellas who needs to cheat others into membership so that this small timers gets more money to invest
fellow investors in the market don't waste time talking nonsense with small timers,time is money.we use our time to help others get more money without risk of being cheated by small timers conman
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Fly25
8 posts
Posted by Fly25 > 2018-03-30 11:30 | Report Abuse
Steel tariff fears have subsided and broad market is less volatile now. Huaan took such a bad beating over the last 2 weeks and it is worthy to have at least some technical rebound.. But why is it doing so badly? Is there something going terribly wrong with the company's fundamentals and core business that we are missing?