BURSA better do something tomorrow, prove to Bloomberg that your little brother can stand up straight & not only below 5%. If not, we really shame on you.
Q4 already pass 1.5 month.. base on current average coke and coal price.. and calculate by 1.41 tone coal to produce 1 tone coke.. Huaan still earn around 322 RMB / tone of coke , which same as profit during Q2 ( April , May , June ). Extimate coming qr eps will be around 1.5 - 2.0 .. : )
Though futures has up a lot lately, spot still at bottom. For those who follow spot rate (which is the correct method), DON'T worry, spot rate is reversing soon. Spot is always about 4 weeks SLOWER than futures !
See the comparision between spot (blue) and future chart. http://www.100ppi.com/sf/617.html When future started to dive in mid Sept, spot remain high for the whole of Sept and even 1st half of Oct. Spot only start to slide in 2nd half of Oct (about 4 weeks later than futures).
From the chart, we can see that futures bottomed near early Nov and started to reverse. So we can expect spot to reverse by early Dec. So stay cool bros ........ in any event this low spot rates will be very well mitigated by hedging (as explained earlier).
Good news .... Linyi city coke price has bottom and today start to rise ! Linyi city coke price has been down for almost 2 months, from 2300 (on 29/9) to 1650 (22/11) and never up a single time during the period. But today it is up by 50 to 1700. This is a good sign of reversing. http://www.52steel.com/market/2017-11-23/1a84e79e-ba4d-46dd-af8f-32c6ee27e673.html
Guided by the coke futures (which spot price follow in delayed fashion) which has risen steadily since early Nov, we can expect Linyi coke spot to rise steadily from now on. This will stabilise Q4 coke spot average, which today stand at 1938. Great !
Furthermore, today by-products prices up again ! Coal tar up by 75 to 3519.50 and crude benzene up by 50 to 6775. Since 9/10, coal tar has risen 19% while crude benzene has risen 10%. The by-products are going to bring good profit to Huaan in Q4. http://www.sci99.com/monitor-386-0.html http://www.sci99.com/monitor-377-0.html
So now Huaan have 3 horses running for them. 1) profits from hedging (when futures price was sky high) 2) profits from by-products (selling prices which keep on going up in Q4) 3) stabilised coke spot price (Linyi coke spot has bottom and start to rise)
With collaboration of these 3 horses, Huaan is going to have an excellent Q4, rather than a poor Q4 as many have anticipated due to the depressed coke price.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
anson8222
915 posts
Posted by anson8222 > 2017-11-21 17:22 | Report Abuse
BURSA better do something tomorrow, prove to Bloomberg that your little brother can stand up straight & not only below 5%. If not, we really shame on you.
Malaysia becomes Asia’s worst stock market as election looms
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-becomes-asias-worst-stock-market-election-looms