Refinery’s profit is very sensitive to Crack spread and sales volume. For this year, refinery will enjoy historical high crack spread and high sales volume due to economy reopening. Tight supply of oil and the sanction on Russia will most likely keep crack spread high for the rest of this year .
In 2017, average crack spread was usd11 per barrel. Average crack spread ytd April 2022 is usd15 per barrel. Both hengyuan and petronM made crazy profit in 2017 ( Hengyuan’s EPS $3.0, PetronM’s EPS $1.50). Correspondingly share price reach as high as $18 for hengyuan and $15 for petronM
Investing in integrated refinery & retail petrol stations outlets is a safer preposition compare to investing in pure refinery business which is very volatile.
Based on past trends, I've noticed that Petron is quick to rise & remains lofty for brief moments & then falls steeply. Let's hope that this time it's different.
Upstream O&G – pure upstream player Hibiscs is the first beneficiary in near term and share price already up more than 100%.
Downstream O&G – Hengyuan, PetronM and Petdag started to augur some profit as the rise of oil product spread price. Those share prices up 20 to 50% and need to take note that both Hengyuan and PetronM is pure downstream player.
O&G service provider – Dayang, Waseong, Penergy, Deleum, Uzma, Carimin and RL will be the last beneficiary with promising contract awarded from PETRONAS. Those share prices is on the move.
We are on the USD100++ Crude oil era which happened 10yrs ago couple with high inflation
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Johnzhang
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Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-29 10:39 | Report Abuse
Refinery’s profit is very sensitive to Crack spread and sales volume. For this year, refinery will enjoy historical high crack spread and high sales volume due to economy reopening. Tight supply of oil and the sanction on Russia will most likely keep crack spread high for the rest of this year .