Nobody give a shyt about him anyway. Just go with the flow and you won’t be wrong. He may sound he controls a multi billion fund but his calls are all going against him. Pity his investors having to bear the loss as a result of his dumbness.
There are four main reasons behind the explosion in refining margins.
1. First, demand — particularly for diesel — has rebounded strongly, depleting global inventories. In some markets, like the US East Coast, diesel stocks have fallen to a 30-year low.
Despite rising prices and fears of an economic slowdown later this year, oil executive say they see strong consumption for now. “Demand is not that easily destroyed,” Shell plc CEO Ben van Beurden told investors last week.
2. Second, the US and its allies have tapped their strategic petroleum reserves to cap the rally in oil prices. That has provided extra crude, which has put a lid on WTI prices, but it hasn’t addressed the tightness in refined products. Only a small fraction of the emergency release is in the form of refined products, and only in Europe.
3. Third, and perhaps most importantly, refining capacity has declined where it matters for the market now, and the plants that are operating are struggling to process enough crude to satisfy the demand for fuel. Martijn Rats, an oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that outside China and the Middle East, oil distillation capacity fell by 1.9 million barrels a day from the end of 2019 to today — that’s the largest decline in 30 years.
The downward trend started well before the pandemic hit, as old Western refineries struggled to compete, environmental regulations increased costs and the unfounded fear of peak oil demand amid the energy transition prompted some companies to close plants. The fuel-demand collapse triggered by Covid-19 only turbo-charged the trend, resulting in dozens of refinery operations shutting down for good in Europe and the US in 2020 and 2021. New capacity has emerged in China. However, Beijing tightly controls how much fuel its refiners can export so that capacity is effectively out of reach of the global market.
4. Fourth, are the sanctions and unilateral embargos — also known as self-sanctions — on Russian oil. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a major exporter not just of crude, but also of diesel and semi-processed oil that Western refiners turned into fuel. Europe, in particular, relied on Russian refineries for a significant chunk of its diesel imports. The flow has now dried.
Europe not only needs to find extra crude to produce the diesel and other fuels it’s not buying from Russia, but,
crucially, it needs the refining capacity to do so, too. It’s a double blow. Oil traders estimate that Russia has shut down 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels a day of refining capacity as result of the self-sanctions.
Who’s benefitting? The pure-play oil refiners, which are quietly enjoying record-high profit margins. While OPEC and Big Oil get the blame, independent refiners are cashing-in. The sky-high crack margins explains why the share prices of US refining giants Marathon Petroleum Corp and Valero Energy Corp have surged to all-time highs. The longer the refiners make super-profits, the harder the energy shock will hit the economy.
supersinginvestor @sheldon Thot u so negative about petronm Wat happened? Lol
I was justified with shares trading at single digit PEs, low dividends & several other real or imagined issues, some of which I had raised with our watchdog. But money talks and all's forgotten when the share price skyrockets. Now we smoke peace pipe.
With KYY and his supporters loading up PetronM, it’s share price may soon overtake HRC. KYY can not eat his humble pie following his mistaken comment on HRC recently.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Johnzhang
3,098 posts
Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-17 16:47 | Report Abuse
PetronM is fast catching up to Hengyuan