Posted by tonylim > 2013-09-15 15:30 | Report Abuse

Some retards here think that bursa investing is all about googling to learn financials and whatnot. There are one or two aspects they probably cant learn from the internet except in forums like this. What about macro aspects like applied economics, fiscal policies and forex.

They like to challenge who has the right info who figures was right or wrong. What they dont realise is financials is an art (as pointed out by kcchong yesterday) working on many assumptions. If an IPP concessions expire on certain days it is still not wrong to factor in so long as it is mentioned in yr numbers. No need to use crude rude or unparlimentary language on a fellow forumer who like to contribute for free.

To all the retards here .. there is No free lunch

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-15 15:39 | Report Abuse

Can't agree with you more Tony. However there are still people out there who do not appreciate the free lunches thrown by kcchongnz and otb etc...

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-15 21:32 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz... from d postings tat i c here nobody really gives a damn abt wat u put in ur valuation so long as u stir up d interest in d counter n its price moved up... n everybody made a profit... n cheers all round..... so far so good cos as d liquidity bull is stil around.... but d test is wait till they made losses later u c if d love is stil there...

very well wish u all good luck.... u bunch wit a combined age of more thn 600 years but somehow never got wiser freaking seniles morons retards idiots ...

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-09-15 21:42 | Report Abuse

Jcool , i think you are looking for affirmation , and i have to agree with you, putting a disclaimer is better than none, no one will getting harm with an extra '' disclaimer ''

right?

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-09-15 21:48 | Report Abuse

Jcool really like to describe himself in depth and surprisingly extremely precisely accurate as below

Posted by JCool > Sep 15, 2013 09:32 PM
...freaking seniles morons retards idiots ...

gotta give u the thumbs up

Posted by Stockwatch > 2013-09-15 22:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by Hafiz Millip > Sep 15, 2013 10:06 PM | Report Abuse

Look, if anyone of you want recommendation by paid analysts then just pick this jewels by RHB. http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/19589pub.jsp There's no glory picking someone who obviously doing us a great favour in this forum only to get bash for nothing...its sick...

Well said Hafiz....now wonder if Public Investment Bank will feel the heat now....with its 41% share of the total unit trusts market in Malaysia...it better goreng ..goreng..and kaw...kaw too! :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 04:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > Sep 15, 2013 09:42 PM | Report Abuse
Jcool , i think you are looking for affirmation , and i have to agree with you, putting a disclaimer is better than none, no one will getting harm with an extra '' disclaimer ''
right?

Hey please don't flag this comment.What is wrong with this comment? The same thing I see many other comments flagged, for what?

The cool guy has been keep on asking me to put a disclaimer as he doesn't seem to able to rebuke any of my responses, not a single one, despite his initial sarcastic and cynical jab on me. I am still waiting for his response even on this disclaimer thingy as below:

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 14, 2013 07:45 PM | Report Abuse X
I3 administrator, why you still haven't answer my questions
1do I have to put a disclaimer when putting my valuation of a stock here?
2 do I have to be a CFA to write an analysis in i3?
3 do I have to be licensed with security commission to put up an analysis of a stock here?
4 do I have to be a FAR licensed with Bank Negara put put up a valuation here?
5 do I have to visit the management, the factory, the site, dig through the company's account, ledger, check books etc to make sure everything is correct befor I write anything here?
6 if I don't do all the above, will you inform the police to take me to jail?
7 etc etc etc

For fat cat's comment, I would answer here. Yes, there is no harm at all to put the disclaimer. But I also want to ask you this:

1) No harm, but do I have to?
2) Am I peddling for others to buy stocks? Note I only talk about intrinsic value. I don't talk about this share price should go up to $10, $20 etc, do I?
3) Does providing an education piece, showing how to read and interpret financial statements, doing valuation in a public forum needs disclaimer?
4) Do I force you to learn?
5) Am I one of those licensed financial planner, financial adviser representative, CFA etc?
6) Do I really have to waste time, writing more with those disclaimers?
7) What is the purpose of those disclaimers then?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 04:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by sephiroth > Sep 15, 2013 09:48 PM | Report Abuse
Jcool really like to describe himself in depth and surprisingly extremely precisely accurate as below
Posted by JCool > Sep 15, 2013 09:32 PM
...freaking seniles morons retards idiots ...
gotta give u the thumbs up

Sephiroth, that is why I ask others not to flag his comments. He has a right to say what he wants. We also have a right to see if this guy really that good as shown by what he said and his sarcastic and cynical comments. Notice he even said he knows how to do valuation?

Most of all, we have the right to see his real character.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 05:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 15, 2013 09:32 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz... from d postings tat i c here nobody really gives a damn abt wat u put in ur valuation so long as u stir up d interest in d counter n its price moved up... n everybody made a profit... n cheers all round..... so far so good cos as d liquidity bull is stil around.... but d test is wait till they made losses later u c if d love is stil there...

LIQUIDITY FOR MFCB? I DON'T SEE ANY WOH. NOBODY GIVES A DAMN OF WHAT i PUT IN MY VALUATION? IS IT MY FAULT? DO I CARE?

BUT IF YOU GO TO THESE THREADS BELOW, MANY SEEM TO BE ASKING ME QUESTIONS WOH, ABOUT FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS, VALUATIONS ETC. dON'T BELIEVE, GO THERE AND SEE FOR YOURSELF:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900172429.jsp?ftp=2
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900255072.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp

very well wish u all good luck.... u bunch wit a combined age of more thn 600 years but somehow never got wiser freaking seniles morons retards idiots ...

I NO NEED TO RESPOND HERE. SEPHIROTH HAS BEEN THAT.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-09-16 08:00 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 15, 2013 09:32 PM | Report Abuse

"kcchongnz... from d postings tat i c here nobody really gives a damn abt wat u put in ur valuation so long as u stir up d interest in d counter n its price moved up... n everybody made a profit... n cheers all round..... so far so good cos as d liquidity bull is stil around.... but d test is wait till they made losses later u c if d love is stil there... "

Hey JCool, what you said is not true, at least for me, I refer to the annual report and found KC figure corresponded to the report. I am convinced about his valuation. Even if the price dropped back to 70 sen of 2009 after tapering of QE3, it is not KC's fault but market force. I am prepared to weather this consequences.
16/09/2013 07:56

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-16 08:24 | Report Abuse

As I mentioned earlier, I would prefer not to get involved but I just cannot tolerate someone calling another names like idiots etc. What is the purpose of doing so. The whole thing is so simple. If you do not believe or subscribe to what others write, just don't read the article or just ignore the contents after reading it. You are at liberty to do so but what gives you the right to bombard the writer with sarcastic, rude and cynical comments. This is totally unethical, immoral and unacceptable. And what is wrong with people's ages? Everyone gets old one day - it's inevitable ! Why bring this up ? Just can't understand.

Posted by wajatimur_28 > 2013-09-16 10:13 | Report Abuse

Jgnla gaduh2..mau car mkn ka,...mau cari gaduh?tak bagusla ini mcm..kita ni mcm saudara jg dlm i3investor ni...jgn gaduh2 ma..anyway, tqvm mr. Kcong&mr. Otb...ur contribution are always welcome...tqvm..

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-16 10:39 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz.. i dont know abt ur other valuations la... i hv neither d interest nor d time to look thru... if others want to follow it is their business....

But i hv jz looked at jz one of ur valuation that is of MFCB i hv found these

JCool Kcchongnz... I hv pointed out why ur valuation may b too high... u jz refused to listen...ok one more time.... As jaack1 posted above d IPP concessions of 21 22 year will end soon by 2017.... but d balances u used for discounting r from last year... by using last year balances u hv actually made d assumption tat for all d coming years till perpetuity ie forever d balances from MFCB wil b nice like last year... but since d concessions wil end by 2017... so after 2017 d balances would not b as high as nice like last year cos d contributions from d concessions wil not b there anymore... understand?? If u use 2018 balances to discount d valuation wil b lower understand?? Tat right way wld b u may use last yaer balances to discount upto 2017 then plus use 2018 balances to discount from then on.. understand? It is not d valuation methods... uncle... it is your inputs

JCool Kcchongnz... lets stop d childish name calling cos i m JCool not kuching kurap.... Uncle seriously.... really la... it is now obvious to me tat u hv not done even d most basic of facts finding before u came up wit ur valuation n going on n on abt how good MFCB is... cos as jackk1 pointed out... d fact tat d two IPP concessions, which by ur own account contribute 76% of MFCB income, r coming to an end by 2017 is clearly stated in MFCB OWN WEDSITE... if u hv checked u wld hv known... Asking u to put a disclaimer is for ur own good... cos based tis MFCB case it seems u hv copied d valuation method from a book n jz proceed to fill d blanks without checking... Tis is dangerous cos jz imagine someone putting all his money into MFCB based on ur valuation n in 2016 realized too late tat d two IPP concessions wld end next year n MFCB profit n hence share price wld drop by 76%... all his life saving wld b gone... how can u sleep knowing tis...

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-16 10:40 | Report Abuse

Ok i hv wasted enough of my time here... wish u all good luck..

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-16 10:59 | Report Abuse

Am glad that at last you realized you have wasted your time here. In fact what have you achieved besides running down the writer. And I noticed in the Malton thread you are talking about cash flow, bad assets etc. Wow, you are learning fast from kcchongnz as basically as some of the key criteria in his assessment of a company. Wish you luck in your trading !

Posted by Jaack1 > 2013-09-16 11:32 | Report Abuse

Gentlemen,

As JCool’s assumption that MFCB’s concession end in 31.12.13 is in corrected, I posted the actual concession dates.

From 2008 ~ 2012 (5 years) the, PBT generated by power division is RM 384,309,000 - breakdown as follows: -

2008 44,354,000
2009 76,851,000
2010 74,001,000
2011 90,662,000
2012 98,442,000

PBT shows increasing trend – it is safe to assume that there will be positive contribution to MFCB’s bottom line for the next five years - from 2013 till expiry of concession.

Tks/Rgds
Jaack1

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-16 12:37 | Report Abuse

INVEST88.. HAHA.... BETTER WEAR YOUR SPEC N LOOK AT MALTON THREAD AGAIN...

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/6181.jsp

THAT THREAD IS FOR TAT ULTIMATE MORON N IDIOT Sephiroth WHO BLAMED MY POSTS THERE FOR CAUSING MALTON PRICE TO DROP WHEN IN FACT IT WAS ALL BCOS OF HIS ULTIMATE STUPIDITY.... N HE HAS TO LIE TAT HE HAS SOLD AT HIGH.. FREAKING ULTIMATE MORON N LIAR..

KCCHONGNZ AREN'T U WORRY? U FOLLOWER IS LIKE TIS O.... NOT DANGEROUS KA??

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-16 12:42 | Report Abuse

Jaack1... after 2017 d 98442000 will not b there anymore but kcchongnz valuation is inclusive of tis 9844200 till perpetuity... till forever... u tell me if he valuation is right?

Nokenzo u get it or not?

Anyway... wish u all good luck...

No more posting from me here.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-09-16 12:56 | Report Abuse

JCool, this was actually what you wanted to say. LOL

Jaack1... after 2017 d 98442000 will not b there anymore but kcchongnz valuation is inclusive of tis 9844200 till perpetuity... till forever... u tell me if he valuation is right?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 13:15 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 16, 2013 12:37 PM | Report Abuse

INVEST88.. HAHA.... BETTER WEAR YOUR SPEC N LOOK AT MALTON THREAD AGAIN...

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/6181.jsp

THAT THREAD IS FOR TAT ULTIMATE MORON N IDIOT Sephiroth WHO BLAMED MY POSTS THERE FOR CAUSING MALTON PRICE TO DROP WHEN IN FACT IT WAS ALL BCOS OF HIS ULTIMATE STUPIDITY.... N HE HAS TO LIE TAT HE HAS SOLD AT HIGH.. FREAKING ULTIMATE MORON N LIAR..

KCCHONGNZ AREN'T U WORRY? U FOLLOWER IS LIKE TIS O.... NOT DANGEROUS KA??


Do I worry? Why should I worry? If Inwest88 lose money anything to do with me? That is his problem, isn't it ,Inwest88? Sephiroth?

Dangerous or not? Oh this one definitely I don't think so. You go and read Inwest88 posts about his philosophies of investing. He is one of the most conservative guy. Sephiroth even appear to be making a lot of money in the stock market recently.

But seriously, is it worrisome or dangerous if anyone here insist following my writeup and go and buy those shares in my list (without my approval, hehe), is it really dangerous and worrisome? Go read what I have posted at 2.18pm yesterday here. It is just on this page here.

1) None of those stocks in my list of 10 in the negative territory, all positive.
2) The average compounded annual return of the portfolio out-perform the broad market by a huge margin for the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5-year return.
3) the portfolio out-perform all the unit trusts, hundreds of them investing in KLSE for the last 5 years as shown in the fundSupermart website.

Hey I never heard of anyone complain that he loses money because of me. If there is, I also ask him to go and fly kite as whenever I have asked him to buy. And alos those people who made money also is their own effort, none of my business also.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 13:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 16, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

Jaack1... after 2017 d 98442000 will not b there anymore but kcchongnz valuation is inclusive of tis 9844200 till perpetuity... till forever... u tell me if he valuation is right?


Where the hell you find this 9844200 appear in my valuation? Till perpetuity? Till forever? Do you really understood what I do or not?

If the valuation is right? Valuation is an art. There is no right or wrong. It all depend on what is your assumptions.


Okokok, my valuation is wrong lah. Show us yours then? If you can't, get your professional analysts friends to do and show us here. As I have said before, I guarantee you I will give you a lot of constructive criticism, unlike you just simply say this and that without showing what you got.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-16 13:38 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, as I mentioned I bought Fibon strictly based on your write-up (there is not an iota of recommendation from you) and if it really drops by 90% or 100%, it's purely my decision. In fact I wondered if I had joined this forum at the beginning of the year, I would have made quite a bit of money from some of your stock picks. And you are absolutely right in saying I am a conservative trader, not only conservative but compulsive also - LOL. Even I have some stocks to be held over a medium to long term basis, I like to trade and would go in and out very frequently. Most of the time I cut my losses and tend to liquidate early after the price has gone up by more than 10%. In the past 30 years of involvement in stocks, do you believe that I have went in and out in 630 different counters (up to end of 2012). Sometimes I just trade for fun. Luckily at this point in time I am still on the plus side. In fact I kept all records of all my transactions since 1989 (I think I started in 1982 or 1983). Played 630 counters - 339 with profits 291 with losses.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 14:16 | Report Abuse

Do I worry about people following my postings and buy stocks and become bankrupt?

A regular unit trust agent (or is he a financial adviser, not sure) posts the performance of unit trusts in Malaysia. I just stumbled into his latest posting today:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/invest_made_easy/36962.jsp

So I have summarized the top three unit trust funds invested in Malaysian equity as below together with my portfolio return for the 1, 3 and 5 years as at 15/9/2013 as shown.

Year CAR 1 3 5
Kenanga Growth Fund 18.8 20.1 20.5
Philip Master Equity Fund 28.8 16.82 20.5
MAAKL 16.4 17.2 20.3
My portfolio 42.9 21.5 27.3

My portfolio return beats all of them in every category. Mind you these are the top three Malaysian equity funds. Yes all of them and also with a huge margin.

But seriously unit trusts funds have some restrictions which are at their disadvantage; they have too much money to invest and they cannot invest in some shares with low liquidity. Of course the other thing is the fees and transaction costs etc.

I am not trying to brag or what, but just to stfu those fellows who said my postings and stock picks (even though I didn't ask anyone to buy) can make people bankrupt. That I bullshit, tipu pusing or whatnot.

No, I am still not asking you to buy those stocks I have written. they are for fun only.

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-09-16 14:30 | Report Abuse

jcool, u r indeed very cool to keep describing yourself very nicely as below, i gotta give 100 thumbs out, good for u. You should be the supreme leader and ceo of FREAKING ULTIMATE MORON N LIAR INC.

Posted by JCool > Sep 16, 2013 12:37 PM

ULTIMATE MORON N IDIOT...FREAKING ULTIMATE MORON N LIAR..

fyi, i exit malton at 0.905 (buy 0.49) after kcchongnz give warning sign on malton

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-09-16 18:32 | Report Abuse

1) No harm, but do I have to?
2) Am I peddling for others to buy stocks? Note I only talk about intrinsic value. I don't talk about this share price should go up to $10, $20 etc, do I?
3) Does providing an education piece, showing how to read and interpret financial statements, doing valuation in a public forum needs disclaimer?
4) Do I force you to learn?
5) Am I one of those licensed financial planner, financial adviser representative, CFA etc?
6) Do I really have to waste time, writing more with those disclaimers?
7) What is the purpose of those disclaimers then?

1. No you dont have to if you dont want.

6.if you use so much time to analysis a company , why you so reluctant to type a small sentences of disclaimers? just make it short yet clear and sound then it is enough, no need long winded.

7. the purpose of disclaimers is to avoid responsibility, if you dont want to get kacau by ppl in the future, just put it to avoid problems. it is good for you.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-16 19:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 19:59 | Report Abuse

Disclaimer: I am not an analyst, neither have I gone through any formal training as an analyst. I am not an accountant, and neither have I gone through any training in accounting. Nevertheless I will pretend myself to be an investment analyst and an accountant. I will act like one now.

The information and analysis contained herein, is for information and fun purpose. It is not guaranteed by me. This is because the future is unknown. I have good intentions but my financial statement analysis and valuations could likely be wrong.

If you choose to buy the stock, you could lose your entire investment and please plant into your head that it is your own responsibilities. And make sure that you shed no tears. But if you make money, please ensure that you deposit 20% of your gain in the account number 12-345-678-90.

Lastly, this disclaimer is for fun only.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-16 20:01 | Report Abuse

FCTB - firstly let me make it clear. I am not taking sides but just want to present a fair and honest view as to why you seem to insist on a disclaimer.

1) kcchongnz is just putting up his views and in no way in the entire write-up did he mention or imply that it is a recommendation to buy. No target prices are given but just a computed intrinsic value to ascertain the margin of safety
2) it's the sole responsibility of the reader to make his own judgement and decision
3) hence when one loses money he should not blame the writer. On the other hand if one profits from kcchongnz's views, he need not have to reward him with a single sen
4) everyday you can see in the newspapers stocks recommendation by institutions. Do all of them put up disclaimers ?
5) no where in this forum is there is a condition that all comments or opinion have to be accompanied by a disclaimer (am I right, Admin ?)
6) and if you were to refer back to your posting below, it is more likely that you are suggesting, if not recommending, to sell and buy. Did you put up a disclaimer ? What if the price of ytlp goes up and the others drop ?

" 爱丽斯 梦幻世界's Portfolio: Alice Wonderland 2013"
May 13, 2013 05:57 AM | Report Abuse
if i was you, i will sell all the ytlp shares , and go buy something else. if you asking for my advise, i would suggest you sell half of ytlp and use the money to buy other more potential stocks such as pwroots, inari , magni. pwroots is already kind of high, inari and magni , this 2 is still very worth for buying now. ""

From the above, it is very clear and obvious that there is no rationale, logic or justification whatsoever for a writer to put up a disclaimer. There are so many people in the forum who shouts buy buy buy, sell sell sell and even state target prices. Do they put up any disclaimer?

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-16 20:10 | Report Abuse

A well produced disclaimer - full of wits, wisdom and humor albeit with a bit of sarcasm - LOL !

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-16 20:17 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz... IT IS PRECISELY TIS COCKY VAIN OF U TAT I CANNOT STAND... A DISCLAIMER IS FOR UR OWN GOOD COS UR VALUATIONS COULD B TOTALLY WRONG BUT PEOPLE HV PUT IN ALL THEIR RETIREMENT FUND BASED ON RECOMMENDATIONS.. HOW CAN U SLEEP?

Jz one last attempt for nozeka n Jaack1 sacks....

Ok assumed nothing changes... no new bizs n existing bizs remain... so tat d profit n cashflow for 2016 will b d same as ur 2012 balances... n d two IPP concessions which contribute 76‰of these stil wil end by early 2017...

Since d profit n cashflow for 2016 will b d same as ur 2012 balances.... so if u used ur valuation method n applied d 2016 bals... ur valuation of MFCB as at end of 2016 wil b d same as for 2012 tat is 4.02... How can tat b when come 2017 thr wil b 0 profit n cashflow from d two concessions..

Surely u must b out of ur mind to pay 4.02 for MFCB as at end 2016 when d two concessions wil end by 2017....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-16 20:33 | Report Abuse

Disclaimer continue
My analysis could be totally wrong. If you put your entire retirement fund and buy those stocks in the list, and if go bankrupt, please don,t come crying to me and want to borrow money. I won't give a damn. I still could sleep like a baby.

Oh yeah another thing, if you can't stand reading my disclaimer, you could sit anywhere you like.

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-16 20:57 | Report Abuse

KCCHONGNZ... MY 4TH ATTEMPTS TO PUT FORWARD MY CASE.. N JX YET ANOTHER QUICK N EMPTY REBUKE FROM U.... ANY MORE RESPONSIBLE N RESPECTABLE PERSON WOULD HV SAID.. O.. JKHOO LOOKS LIKE U HV A POINT THERE... LET ME TAKE A LOOK AT MY VALUATION AGAIN...... BUT U R SHIT LA..

BUT SINCE $$$ INVOLVED N YOUNGSTERS... YOUNGSTERS WHO THUS FAR HV RESPECT FOR U R WAITING... I URGE U TO GIVE A GOOD TECHNICAL ANSWER BEFITTING UR VAIN...

Posted by alenac > 2013-09-16 21:02 | Report Abuse

So If cash streams gonna end in a few years, possible that MFCB is likely to be another YTL power. Should be fully valued now.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-09-16 21:24 | Report Abuse

Jcool, no one force anyone to buy anythings, the decision is make by the own individual.

if they lose money , that is their own problem.

how can they blame other while they make the decision by themselves?

there is too many stupid people in the world, agree?

Posted by alenac > 2013-09-16 22:29 | Report Abuse

Jcool you got a point on expiring of the concessions. But perhaps maybe some people will overlook this point when market is hot and all time high. Anyway valuation of shares are just maths and not pure science. Volume that drives prices is based on demand and supply. DD/SS are determined by speculative as well as fundamentals. No one can see when MFCB will move to RM4 anyway. All valuations are selling hopes.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-09-16 23:59 | Report Abuse

Well said alenac.
lets putting the "disclaimer" aside, Jcool is saying right on the valuation for me.. simply put in everything and come out with a fair value by using any valuation method can be really misleading, especially when one does not really understand the financial reporting. Of course i am not being doubtful on kcchong valuation as i believe he is the one who understand the flaw of the valuation.. just to be fair

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-17 05:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 16, 2013 08:57 PM | Report Abuse

KCCHONGNZ... MY 4TH ATTEMPTS TO PUT FORWARD MY CASE.. N JX YET ANOTHER QUICK N EMPTY REBUKE FROM U.... ANY MORE RESPONSIBLE N RESPECTABLE PERSON WOULD HV SAID.. O.. JKHOO LOOKS LIKE U HV A POINT THERE... LET ME TAKE A LOOK AT MY VALUATION AGAIN...... BUT U R SHIT LA..

Do I really have to follow your "advice" to forecast the future cash flows of MFCB 10-20 years down the road and entertain you and give you a "scientific" and mathematical "exact" valuation? Read these below:

Posted by JCool > Sep 8, 2013 01:37 PM | Report Abuse
Who wrote this? Long analysis..... must have spent days weeks or months on it but jz siok sendiri n waste of time Totally useless n no influence on d share price at all

Posted by JCool > Sep 11, 2013 04:25 PM | Report Abuse
HaHa I m here for d $$$$$ u r going for d i love u bro.. really trully love u.. muack muack.... let's go for laksa.... Luv Luv.. : )

That is precisely d problem... That is why MFCB never moved.
Posted by JCool > Sep 14, 2013 05:59 PM | Report Abuse
HaHa..... copy and paste lah, tipu-pusing lah, bullshit lah, liar lah.... looks like it is not jz all love love o... uncle.... ; )

Posted by JCool > Sep 15, 2013 09:32 PM | Report Abuse
very well wish u all good luck.... u bunch wit a combined age of more thn 600 years but somehow never got wiser freaking seniles morons retards idiots ...


BUT SINCE $$$ INVOLVED N YOUNGSTERS... YOUNGSTERS WHO THUS FAR HV RESPECT FOR U R WAITING... I URGE U TO GIVE A GOOD TECHNICAL ANSWER BEFITTING UR VAIN...

Oh now you are acknowledging that the writeup is not just "siok sendiri n waste of time Totally useless"?

Wow, "YOUNGSTERS WHO THUS FAR HV RESPECT FOR U R WAITING". No more saying "nobody gives a damn" to my writeup?

"Youngsters"? I don't know if they are "youngsters" as claimed by you. But I do know many of them are very experience investors; inwest88 ( an experience and prudent investor), Ooi Teik Bee (we are of different school of thoughts), Fat Cat, ipomember (I have argued with him constructively before), houseofordos (many ideas of my new stock list came from him), nokenzo, hakeiyila,Frank Soweto (well seasoned and have invaluable experience money and university education can't buy), bsngpg (well experienced and seasoned too and we also differ in some investment choices), sh2383jbt, choolooi, Jaack1 (he is the one who alert me of this good stock), Hafiz, Saturn, Sephiroth, Jimmy, tonylim (Lou chiow), wajatimur, stockwatch, and alenac. How do you know they are youngsters ah?

I must give you a good technical answer? To you? Do I owe you? Do I owe anyone? Why you still do not agree with me that I don't owe any "technical answer" after all my rational arguments?

Posted by haikeyila > 2013-09-17 09:25 | Report Abuse

another forum contaminated with playground name-calling kids. great.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-17 10:46 | Report Abuse

Anybody who has read my posts about my rationales of picking the companies for long term investment would have notice that theoretical valuation of a stock is not the first thing I would do. I look at its business, its margins and efficiencies, growth, cash flows, financial health etc first. Then I see what is its market valuation such as Price-to-sale, Price-to-book, PE, earnings yield of enterprise etc. Then if I find the company interesting, only I look at valuation to see if it is worthwhile to buy or not. This process I call it looking for a good company to invest at a bargain price.

In MFCB’s case, its enterprise value at the present share price of 1.83 is just 269m and its latest earnings before interest and tax (ebit) is 120m. This means that you can buy over the firm with 269m and earn an ebit of 120m each year.

Let us just assume that MFCB earns this ebit (assume no growth) for another 5 years for its entire business just before one of its power plant operating agreements expires. The total ebit amounts to 1.3m. The present value of this ebit discounted at a rate of 10% is 455m. So is it expensive to buy the company with a present value of its ebit at 455m with 269m? Please note that after 5 years, although one of its operating agreement of a power plant ceases (or both?), it still has its other assets in place such as its limestone business, property development, cash and cash equivalent etc which are very substantial. Of course things may not be that simplistic.

Why don’t I straightaway do theoretical valuations? Valuation is an art but not a science. There are huge limitations in valuation in investment. But does it mean that it is useless? Some savvy investors do just the above before investing and not bother too much about valuation. Of course we can’t say they are wrong. They have their valid reasons. But for me, just like buying a house, we have to have a feel of what its value is before I fork out my money, even though how much I like about the house. To buy a stock, I treat it as investing in part of the company’s business and I must have a feel of its value as a guide. Even in valuation, I use various methods to countercheck.
Then only I will look at its market price now, is there an adequate margin of safety in investing in this share? This is because I very well know that my assumptions in my theoretical valuations could be wrong. Protecting the downward risk (In my case is not cut loss) is more important than high upside potential.

There are numerous methods of valuation, discount cash flow is only one of them. It is more sophisticated method but it doesn’t mean it is better. This is because the more important part is the assumptions. In this case the assumption of its future cash flow is the most tricky. If you read all the research reports about the forecast of professional analysts, you would know that most of them miss the forecast by a huge margin. For example in the US from 2001 to 2006, the average 24-month forecast error is a whopping 93%, 12-month 47%. The absolute scale of the average forecast error is 25% (US Global Research).

In MFCB’s case I am using the Earnings Power Valuation method for the analysis of its theoretical enterprise value. This is done with the normalized ebit done with the average ebit margin of the last few years and assuming there is no growth of its ebit forever, which is a conservative approach. Then the debts and minority interest is deducted and excess cash added back to obtain the theoretical present value of equity attributed to the common shareholders. In this case the EPV/share is RM2.71, 48% higher than its share price of RM1.83.
However, I am not asking anyone to buy the share at RM2.71, am I? I said the margin of safety for investing in this share is 33%.

How else do you expect me to do it? By separating the cash flow of each individual power plant, each business units, and forecast their respective cash flows year by year and after 5 years to 10 years, 20 years and then calculate the present value of each and sum them up? And also forecast its potential other power plants which they may get, the cash flow from its new plantation venture in Cambodia, the growth in revenue and cash flow from other divisions like quarry, limestone products, property development etc. How much work got to be done and how many assumptions have to be made and so many analysis to be done? Do you have a clue of that? Are you out of your mind? Who am I? What kind of resources do I have?

If you think this must be the way to do it, then show me how you do it? Talk is easy. If you are not able to, then get some professional analysts to do it and show me. Tell me how do most professional analysts do their analysis? Do they do like what you want me to do? Just go and read those analysis there are doing now.

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-17 12:04 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz.... NO ANSWER IS BAD ENOUGH.. WAT IS WORST IS TAT U HV ACTUALLY FLAGGED ME FOR ABUSE FOR A TOTAL OF 17 TIMES...17 TIMES!!!

CAN'T ANSWER IS ALREADY NO GOOD INSTEAD TRIED SO HARD TO SILENCE ME!!?? OMG!! REALLY DID NOT EXPECT U TO SCOOP SO LOW.... OMG!!

KCCHONGNZ... NOW WE REALLY KNOW WAT KIND OF PERSON U R!!!

N REALLY WAT KIND OF SECRET DEN R U RUNNING?? TAT U HV TO TRY SO HARD TO SILENCE SOMEONE WHO JZ SO MUCH AS QUESTIONING UR VALUATION ??!! OMG!! OMG!!

I3 administrator well done.... good work.. N kindly do something abt tis guy who abused d Report Abuse... TVQM..

kcchongnz..... i dont nid ur answer la.... i can point out ur mistakes.... i of cos knew d answer.... u mr empty vain...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-17 14:34 | Report Abuse

Hey the cool guy, by reading the comments on mine below, you can come to the conclusion that I flagged you?

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 14, 2013 06:18 PM | Report Abuse X
Hafiz, please don't flag anybody here. I think we are getting into better discussion now.

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 14, 2013 08:00 PM | Report Abuse X
Hafiz, I don't think it is appropriate to raise the flag. He must be given the right to speak

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 16, 2013 04:51 AM | Report Abuse X
Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > Sep 15, 2013 09:42 PM | Report Abuse
Hey please don't flag this comment.What is wrong with this comment? The same thing I see many other comments flagged, for what?


Hahaha, the cool guy, what kind of analytical skill do you have? No wonder inwest88 posted this?

Posted by inwest88 > Sep 14, 2013 03:12 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong, I reckon you should not waste your valuable time disputing with someone who is far below your league.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-17 14:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 17, 2013 12:04 PM | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz.... NO ANSWER IS BAD ENOUGH.. WAT IS WORST IS TAT U HV ACTUALLY FLAGGED ME FOR ABUSE FOR A TOTAL OF 17 TIMES...17 TIMES!!!

Hey the cool guy, I have just respond to your superb analysis that I flagged you above.

CAN'T ANSWER IS ALREADY NO GOOD INSTEAD TRIED SO HARD TO SILENCE ME!!?? OMG!! REALLY DID NOT EXPECT U TO SCOOP SO LOW.... OMG!!

Can't answer or you don't understand what I am talking about? Read my posting today at 10.46am above. Long respond to you. Please rebuke.

KCCHONGNZ... NOW WE REALLY KNOW WAT KIND OF PERSON U R!!!

so what kind of person am I?

N REALLY WAT KIND OF SECRET DEN R U RUNNING?? TAT U HV TO TRY SO HARD TO SILENCE SOMEONE WHO JZ SO MUCH AS QUESTIONING UR VALUATION ??!! OMG!! OMG!!

Try so hard to silent your questioning on my valuation? What for? Are you in my league as stated by inwest88? Very cute statement.

I3 administrator well done.... good work.. N kindly do something abt
tis guy who abused d Report Abuse... TVQM..

i3 administrator, yeah do something to me, fast fast. But for what???

kcchongnz..... i dont nid ur answer la.... i can point out ur mistakes.... i of cos knew d answer.... u mr empty vain...

You point out my mistake? So rebuke my response at 10.46am today please! You know the answer? Really ah? What answer? Show some valuations of MFCB here please!

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-20 21:02 | Report Abuse

I WAS FLAGGED17 TIMES...U CAN CHECK URSELF.... WELL DONE TO U N UR CAHOOTS ...


WHY STIL NID AN ANSWER?? ISNT UR OWN POST IS SELF -EXPLANATORY ENOUGH??

ANYWAY... OK...

How else do you expect me to do it? By separating the cash flow of each individual power plant, each business units, and forecast their respective cash flows year by year and after 5 years to 10 years, 20 years and then calculate the present value of each and sum them up? 

NOW U R TALKING.... FINALLY U GOT IT.. AFTER MY 4TH ATTEMPT TO GET IT INTO UR HEAD...

HOW COME SUDDENLY U KNOW??? JZ READ UP FURTHER OR ASKED SOMEONE WHO REALLY KNOW VALUATION?

How much work got to be done and how many assumptions have to be made and so many analysis to be done? Do you have a clue of that? Are you out of your mind? Who am I? What kind of resources do I have? 

IN D IMPORTANT MATTER OF STOCK VALUATION WHERE $$$$ IS INVOLVED... U CANT GO FOR CONVIENENCE AT D EXPENSE OF ACCURACY!!!
IF U DONT HV D EXPERTISE N RESOURCES TO DO IT.... U SHOULD REFRAIN.. REFRAIN... FROM DOING IT..... NOT B RECKLESS N COME OUT WIT A HALF BAKED ONE... UNDERSTAND??

If you think this must be the way to do it, then show me how you do it? Talk is easy. If you are not able to, then get some professional analysts to do it and show me. Tell me how do most professional analysts do their analysis? Do they do like what you want me to do? Just go and read those analysis there are doing now.

I HV TOLD U I REFRAINED COS I KNOW WAT IS INVOLVED TO DO A PROPER VALUATION... I REFRAINED U DONT...

PROFESSIONALS R OF COS DOING IT IN D WAY I HV TOLD U IN MY EARLIER POSTS... THEY MAY NOT SHOW U THEIR CALCULATIONS UPFRONT... BUT IF THEY ARE SUED BY THEIR CLIENTS FOR WRONG VALUATION THEY WILL HV THEIR CALCULATIONS TO BACK UP THEIR VALUATIONS!


DID U KNOW HOW TIS SUBPRIME FINANCIAL CRISIS WHICH IS IN ITS 5TH ANNVERSARY STARTED???

IT STARED LIKE THIS...  TIS IS D TRUTH TAT I READ SOMEWHERE... NOT MADE UP BY ME OK.... 

STANDARD & POOR... MOODY... UPON SEEING D BUNDLES OF LOANS FROM D INVESTMENT BANKS SAID SOMETHING LIKE THIS:

How else do you expect me to do it? By separating the cash flow of each individual power plant, each business units, and forecast their respective cash flows year by year and after 5 years to 10 years, 20 years and then calculate the present value of each and sum them up?  How much work got to be done and how many assumptions have to be made and so many analysis to be done? Do you have a clue of that? Are you out of your mind? What kind of resources do I have? 

N THEN WHITOUT SITE VISIT.. WHITOUT CLARIFICATION FROM MANAGEMENT.. WITOUT FACTS FINDING.... PROMPTLY USED A SIMPLICITIC VALUATION FORMULA.. KEYED IN SOME BALANCES.... N CAME UP WIT A VALUATION OF "AAA"....... THE REST IS HISTORY AS WE KNOW IT...

D point is mr vain IF U DONT HV D EXPERTISE N RESOURCES.. U DONT GO N DO A VALUATION ANYWAY... U REFRAIN... REFRAIN.. REFRAIN!!!! UNDERSTAND OR  NOT???  u mr feel so good abt urself... yes u r so at d top of "i m so vain league of ur own"!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 08:57 | Report Abuse

Posted by JCool > Sep 20, 2013 09:02 PM | Report Abuse

I WAS FLAGGED17 TIMES...U CAN CHECK URSELF.... WELL DONE TO U N UR CAHOOTS ...

Yeah ah, why people flagged you ah? Despite me asking them not to.

NOW U R TALKING.... FINALLY U GOT IT.. AFTER MY 4TH ATTEMPT TO GET IT INTO UR HEAD...

HOW COME SUDDENLY U KNOW??? JZ READ UP FURTHER OR ASKED SOMEONE WHO REALLY KNOW VALUATION?

Yeah I got it from you. Thank you thank you, thank you.

IN D IMPORTANT MATTER OF STOCK VALUATION WHERE $$$$ IS INVOLVED... U CANT GO FOR CONVIENENCE AT D EXPENSE OF ACCURACY!!!
IF U DONT HV D EXPERTISE N RESOURCES TO DO IT.... U SHOULD REFRAIN.. REFRAIN... FROM DOING IT..... NOT B RECKLESS N COME OUT WIT A HALF BAKED ONE... UNDERSTAND??

Okokok, sorry sorry sorry. Sorry i didn't know my valuation could make you so upset. Sorry again. Understand understand understand.

I HV TOLD U I REFRAINED COS I KNOW WAT IS INVOLVED TO DO A PROPER VALUATION... I REFRAINED U DONT...

Okokok, I refrained from doing any valuation for you to read. Sorry sorry sorry.

PROFESSIONALS R OF COS DOING IT IN D WAY I HV TOLD U IN MY EARLIER POSTS... THEY MAY NOT SHOW U THEIR CALCULATIONS UPFRONT... BUT IF THEY ARE SUED BY THEIR CLIENTS FOR WRONG VALUATION THEY WILL HV THEIR CALCULATIONS TO BACK UP THEIR VALUATIONS!

Yeah yeah yeah, professionals do it the way you show them.


DID U KNOW HOW TIS SUBPRIME FINANCIAL CRISIS WHICH IS IN ITS 5TH ANNVERSARY STARTED???

IT STARED LIKE THIS... TIS IS D TRUTH TAT I READ SOMEWHERE... NOT MADE UP BY ME OK....

STANDARD & POOR... MOODY... UPON SEEING D BUNDLES OF LOANS FROM D INVESTMENT BANKS SAID SOMETHING LIKE THIS:

Oh, what subprime (or sublime)ah? Sorry sorry sorry, I didn't know anything about it.

N THEN WHITOUT SITE VISIT.. WHITOUT CLARIFICATION FROM MANAGEMENT.. WITOUT FACTS FINDING.... PROMPTLY USED A SIMPLICITIC VALUATION FORMULA.. KEYED IN SOME BALANCES.... N CAME UP WIT A VALUATION OF "AAA"....... THE REST IS HISTORY AS WE KNOW IT...

Oh S&P, Moody didn't visit site, didn't talk to management, no fact finding, simply use a formula (what formula ah?), keyed in some balances (?) and came up with a valuation amount to "AAA"? Okokok, understand now. Thank you thank you thank you.

D point is mr vain IF U DONT HV D EXPERTISE N RESOURCES.. U DONT GO N DO A VALUATION ANYWAY... U REFRAIN... REFRAIN.. REFRAIN!!!! UNDERSTAND OR NOT??? u mr feel so good abt urself... yes u r so at d top of "i m so vain league of ur own"!

Okokok, next time I refrain, refrain refrain!!!!!!! Understand already. Thank you thank you thank you.

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-21 13:32 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz... never heard of d subprime crisis... tat is why i say... young man.. u must check ur youthful recklessness...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 13:50 | Report Abuse

"N THEN WHITOUT SITE VISIT.. WHITOUT CLARIFICATION FROM MANAGEMENT.. WITOUT FACTS FINDING.... PROMPTLY USED A SIMPLICITIC VALUATION FORMULA.. KEYED IN SOME BALANCES.... N CAME UP WIT A VALUATION OF "AAA"....... THE REST IS HISTORY AS WE KNOW IT... "

Okokok, sub-prime crisis like that one. Thank you thank you thank you.

So all must refrain refrain refrain because:

N THEN WHITOUT SITE VISIT.. WHITOUT CLARIFICATION FROM MANAGEMENT.. WITOUT FACTS FINDING.... PROMPTLY USED A SIMPLICITIC VALUATION FORMULA.. KEYED IN SOME BALANCES.... N CAME UP WIT A VALUATION OF "AAA"....... THE REST IS HISTORY AS WE KNOW IT...

Got it. Thank you thank you thank you.

Posted by JCool > 2013-09-21 14:27 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz.... Ya it is d truth... STANDARD & POOR... MOODY... jz simply valued d subprimes as 'AAA' without doing a thorough job... i read tis somewhere... not made up by me..

Posted by anbz > 2013-09-22 23:19 | Report Abuse

if everybody that wants to share some sighting or info of a counter...must 1st check with the management...must go to their site 1st...it will be the end of the world...lol...if u want that...go buy the analytic report..yeah "BUY"...don't come to i3investor...haha

Posted by anbz > 2013-09-22 23:28 | Report Abuse

yeah STANDARD & POOR... MOODY are so poor in their job...this cool guy must be great...lol...i think i want to e-jcool-ate...tak tahan wo..hehe

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-10-14 13:06 | Report Abuse

Some negative publicity on the upcoming dam construction project by MFCB in Laos is appearing. According to TheEdge Review, the Don Sahong dam will cause serious environmental repercussions in the Mekong river by preventing the migration of fish and affecting livelihood of fishermen.