Posted by InsiderShark > 2022-06-01 13:05 | Report Abuse

the problem is you expect it to fly after you buy. go back and look at other charts, companies like PPB, QL, or Harta (Before covid) had a few years of flat share price, sometimes as long as 4 years, then it flies. sometimes 2 years, we dont know. The key is to buy a company that wants to grow their earnings and wait.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-06-01 17:08 | Report Abuse

@steady31
Are you sure you are looking at the right chart?
With exception for the panic selling at the early stage of pandemic in March 2020, from Jan 2020 to June 2022, the stock price (adjusted for stock split) appreciated 44% excluding dividend. If you had collected it during the march 2020 selloff, you would have made 140%.

Posted by snowball2000 > 2022-06-02 16:00 | Report Abuse

MFCB is heavily traded (>3.5mil shares at time of writing, with positive bias) with uptrend today. Does anyone have any news?

Posted by nickinvests > 2022-06-08 23:22 | Report Abuse

steady rock stock. recession proof.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-17 09:57 | Report Abuse

https://www.ft.com/content/1f53abbd-2e49-4fe2-809c-f6dde97632fe

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-06-17 11:08 | Report Abuse

@nickinvests

Without a good dividend yield, it would still be volatile.
It's almost 10% off it's 52-week high.
Probably slow down as it reached closer to 3.35

Posted by BursaVulture > 2022-06-17 11:30 | Report Abuse

@Just88

Don Sahong sells power to Cambodia, not Laos. Cambodia is the one you should be looking at. If you attend the AGM, you'll know this.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-17 15:15 | Report Abuse

Only 195MW out of 260MW is sold to Cambodia. I might be wrong, you can check it up.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-17 15:25 | Report Abuse

The electricity is sold to cambodia thru EDL, who will collect the payment and pay to MFCB. Any risk ?

Posted by DannyArcher > 2022-06-17 17:56 | Report Abuse

260 is the max capacity, dont expect them to generate 100% all the time all day. In the AGM, I heard the director said all power are sold to cambodia, not to laos. Worry when Cambodia got problem.

Posted by DannyArcher > 2022-06-17 18:16 | Report Abuse

80% of 260 is about 200, plus minus, one average if we factor dry season and service downtime.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2022-06-17 20:13 | Report Abuse

Obviously EDL will collect the bill. EDL also owns 10% or was it 20% of Don Sahong, not sure which. Don Sahong is generating foreign cash for Laos. 25 years later, they will have the entire dam. They want FDI to come in and build dam to generate power to sell to the entire SEA and China, thus they know they need to honor their words regardless of what.

Their goal is to be the battery of SEA, by selling power to many countries including Singapore via Thailand-Malaysia.

https://www.andritz.com/hydro-en/hydronews/hydro-news-asia/laos

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-18 15:13 | Report Abuse

On this Laos thing. Here is my take.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/perfect-storm-of-turbulence-for-indebted-little-laos/

"Laos had the chance to sign up for the World Bank’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative but decided instead to go down the path of direct debt restructuring arrangements with China, its largest creditor. That saw Electricité du Laos, the state-run power company, partially sold off to a Chinese firm."

- DSH sells 100% power to Cambodia, not Laos
- DSH earn USD for Laos, Laos needs all the USD they can get.
- EDL is partially own by China
- Laos gov owns 20% of DSH
- DSH is profitable for all parties
- Unlikely for Laos to nationalize any foreign dam, this will chase away FDI which they badly needs.
- The risk is high, thus explains the very low PE, at PE7.
- Very likely China will help Laos to roll over the debt, push the problem down the road so to speak.
- Unlikely for China to let Laos collapse and allow countries like USA to be friendly to Laos. China will not want to see IMF or World Bank bail out Laos and to have a say in how Laos is run - becomes a democracy.
- China will do whatever it takes to prop up Laos, just like how China prop up North Korea. Better to have a friendly nation at your border than to have an enemy with US putting missiles on Laos soil. China is already not on good terms with vietnam.
- Will EDL delay payment? Possible. This is the biggest risk factor.
- Will EDL renego the contract? Possible but unlikely. if they do, it will probably extend the 25 years to 30 years or more.

I see MFCB as a high risk investment on the short term, if nothing bad happens within this coming 10 years, they would have made enough to diversify into other business to balance their cash flow.

Currently 90% of their profit comes from the hydro, based on my calculation, if all things goes accordingly, 10 years time it will be 50% hydro and 50% others. Which is good enough.

I understand the management is focusing on renewable and ESG, I still think ESG is just a scam. If the bankers and funds are so concern about ESG, MFCB would not be at such low valuation, right? In the end, it is all about profits.

Thus, I dont understand why they choose not to continue their coal or gas power plant. They should just build more, or buy up some palm oil plantation when palm oil price crash, not now. Do whatever it takes to boost earnings. ESG is a scam and renewables are not profitable.

Posted by DannyArcher > 2022-06-20 17:20 | Report Abuse

The battery of SEA

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/06/20/laos-to-sell-electricity-to-singapore

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-06-20 19:21 | Report Abuse

@LongTermInvestor8

Don Sahong has COD since Sept 2020.

Didn't see any news from Management on the delay in payment during AGM or bursa news.

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-20 20:04 | Report Abuse

someone correct me if I am wrong, I read somewhere that delayed payment was paid already. I think from the AGM Q&A or something like this, someone asked, they replied regarding this issue.

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-20 20:09 | Report Abuse

Quote: "A common concern is with regards to high receivables and potential bad debt. In Q4 2020, management guided that increment in receivables was due to December payments came in January due to late acceptance in EDC which subsequently causing EDL to pay late. By Feb, receivables had gone back down to 3-4 months. Management also mentioned that EDL will not be bankrupt as it’s guaranteed by the MOF."

Payment cleared.

p.s. I can't post the URL or PDF file. i3 dont allow me to. The info is by Rondy, go check his website, the pdf if there, he is the host for MFCB live AGM.

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-20 20:11 | Report Abuse

Here is the pdf
https://docdro.id/x9kBp2X

Posted by snowball2000 > 2022-06-21 10:54 | Report Abuse

MFCB keeps dropping.... How low can it go?

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-06-21 11:25 | Report Abuse

@LongTermInvestor8

It was a one time off delay in 2020.
Since then, didn't hear any more delays.

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-21 13:36 | Report Abuse

Quote Public Bank Report 21/6/22: "Troubled state-owned electricity operator, Electricite du Laos (EDL) accounted for nearly a third of publicly-guaranteed debt last year and much was owed to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. This raises concerns over the collection for MFCB’s 80%-owned Don Sahong Hydropower plant. Nevertheless, we think that it is unlikely to see payment defaults from EDL as the electricity is effectively sold to neighbouring Cambodia under a 700MW G-to-G PPA contract signed in 2019. We understand that there is a legal arrangement for EDL to use the proceeds from the sale of electricity to Cambodia for the payment to Don Sahong Hydropower before it is allowed to be used for other purposes."

To simply summarise:
1) EDL payment a function of whether EDC pays EDL. Cambodia needs power & is in much stronger financial position than Laos.
2) Legal arrangement for EDL to pay EDC proceeds to MFCB *FIRST* before they can use balance for own purposes.

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-21 13:37 | Report Abuse

https://docdro.id/W8PLM4X

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-06-21 18:33 | Report Abuse

@LongTermInvestor8
Thanks for the details.
Looks like just posted today by PBB.
Good thing Finance Minister addressed on this concern a few hours ago.
Lao Finance Minister Bounchom Oubonpaseuth has assured National Assembly (NA) members that public debt is still manageable, despite the total amount remaining considerable, Vientiane Times reported.
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/laos-public-debt-remains-manageable-minister/231465.vnp

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-06-22 11:19 | Report Abuse

sendiri jaga jaga lo.. this company many hidden problems .. high chance like serbadk

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-22 12:01 | Report Abuse

Lao kips is dropping at an alarming rate ....

Posted by BursaVulture > 2022-06-22 20:00 | Report Abuse

Government of Laos to export 100 MW of electricity to Singapore
https://southeastasiainfra.com/government-of-laos-to-export-100-mw-of-electricity-to-singapore/

Posted by BursaVulture > 2022-06-24 00:10 | Report Abuse

Singapore began receiving hydropower from Laos wired through Thailand and Malaysia on Thursday, the city-state’s first renewable electricity imports as it looks beyond its borders to meet climate change goals.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/singapore-imports-clean-power-first-time-buying-laos

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-06-24 00:22 | Report Abuse

don't bodoh bodoh... distance from Laos to SG around 2000km, a lot of energy loss in the process

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-06-24 10:20 | Report Abuse

@HengyuanZai

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/03/28/australia-to-singapore-solar-power-project-clears-another-hurdle

It's possible.

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-06-24 10:55 | Report Abuse

my take is that mfcb will drop below 3.00 in a few months

Posted by walkman660 > 2022-06-24 11:09 | Report Abuse

aiyo hengyuanzai , please lar, when comment please dun just comment half half.

(i) you said many hidden problem, what's that? at least elaborate it lar
(ii) drop below 3.00 in a few months ? how long ?

this counter YTD drop only 4 ~ 5% & I believe outperform at least 80% of the counters in Malaysia, what else you want? I've been follow this counter for more than 2 years after hydropower plant started operates, also attended few post QR briefing, so please be responsible when you give comment, else just don't comment. Cash flow, trade receivable all are ok, so i really don't know what's your "hidden problem".

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-06-24 11:59 | Report Abuse

sooner later you will know

Posted by walkman660 > 2022-06-24 12:09 | Report Abuse

instead of put ur nickname as hengyuanzai, better you put as so zai , I only want you elaborate on the hidden problems , and u reply "sooner later you will know" ?

Posted by BursaVulture > 2022-06-24 16:59 | Report Abuse

HengyuanZai, I dont think you understand how it works. They dont really transfer from Laos to Singapore. Simply put it Malaysia will sell to Singapore, Thailand will sell to Malaysia, and the Laos sells to Thailand. Contra it, and Singapore will pay for it.

Posted by LongTermInvestor8 > 2022-06-25 12:29 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/06/25/no-significant-fallout-from-laos-woes


“We do not foresee the current crisis in Laos to have a significant impact on MFCB. The power generated by DSPC in Laos is 100% evacuated to Cambodia via two government-to-government power purchase agreements signed between Electricite Du Laos (EDL) and Cambodia’s Electricity Authority (EDC),” MFCB executive director Khoo Teng Keat tells StarBizWeek.

Elaborating, Khoo says revenue collection is smooth.

“Cambodia’s EDC has been prompt in its payment to EDL. In turn, EDL has been paying DSPC every month,” he adds.

Posted by snowball2000 > 2022-07-04 15:59 | Report Abuse

MFCB experiencing selling pressure, -0.11 and in top 30 losers.... :(

Posted by snowball2000 > 2022-07-04 16:03 | Report Abuse

Mayday mayday mayday...

Posted by snowball2000 > 2022-07-04 16:09 | Report Abuse

Does anyone have any news on MFCB?

Posted by Souljaboiiii > 2022-07-04 21:57 | Report Abuse

My wild guess is due to the collapse of CPO price.

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-07-05 00:04 | Report Abuse

just the beginning before it will get worse...

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-07-05 10:08 | Report Abuse

@snowball2000

Since 1 year ago, the share price have hover range bound between 3.35 to 3.70.
Nothing to be concerned about.

@Souljaboiiii
Emery focus on oleochemicals especially specialty chemicals.
Input cost can be passed on to customers depending on types of chemicals and their margin.
No concern here also.

@HengyuanZai
Nothing to share on the reason?

Posted by Souljaboiiii > 2022-07-05 10:46 | Report Abuse

@newbie8080
It is not as easy as it sounds. Great volatility in the CPO price will lead to the termination of the customer's contract.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-07-05 11:12 | Report Abuse

@Souljaboiiii

Then MFCB may not be your cup of tea.
You can try other stocks which have less or zero dependent on commodity price.

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-07-05 12:06 | Report Abuse

company with hidden problems....

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-07-05 12:20 | Report Abuse

@HengyuanZai
Point noted.
Just like Souljaboiiii, he too has some concerns.
Then MFCB is not your cup of tea.
You can look for other stocks which has zero hidden problems.

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-07-05 12:28 | Report Abuse

Emery oleo is one of the biggest problem

Posted by Souljaboiiii > 2022-07-05 14:51 | Report Abuse

I am not a troll like @HengyuanZai. 

I am just saying what Mr. Yeow said during the briefing with investors. 

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-07-05 15:44 | Report Abuse

@Souljaboiiii
@HengyuanZai

Let the coming quarter results do the talking and we will see who is right or wrong.

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-07-05 19:18 | Report Abuse

sure no problem , we shall see then . good luck

Posted by HengyuanZai > 2022-07-05 19:19 | Report Abuse

trying to turn over Oleochemical within a short time meaning the previous management is a joke. definitely something wrong with this company