Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-18 16:53 | Report Abuse

If you did not see IBM not meeting their forecast and having to throw it out their target for 2014, then you must have missed the part that they were selling some of their products to Lenovo, the more notable one is the X Series and if you miss the BOJ stimulus and you also missed the fact that Japan did not meet first of the earlier quarter GDP, and you are surprise again at Japan being in recession, then you should be short term trader and not an investor.

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-18 16:54 | Report Abuse

Again I wish to warn all who are not in this game or not familiar with EnO, not to play.

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-18 20:16 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha Sifu Saturn

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 06:51 | Report Abuse

I was merely stating and sharing factual data...no punt intended #peace
IBM us$20 EPS was a 5 year target (we called it roadmap) set in 2010 for 2015, and not of late nor was it a 2014 target
E&O still on track :-)

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-19 07:33 | Report Abuse

Charlie82, this is what I found out, price plummet because forecast was abandon. Share your link to say that it was a financial road map & target pls. As I understand tech company have tech road maps but no 5 years financial forecast target because the market keeps changing. This target is yearly target

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-20/ibm-abandons-2015-earnings-goal-as-rometty-divests-assets-1-.html

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 09:54 | Report Abuse

Fatso, no problem see below 1st link 1st 5 short para, u will see that it clearly confirms what I have factually highlighted. This was broadcasted to Wall Street during Sam Palmisano's tenure as CEO. The 2nd link is from IBM investor page showing the slides that Sam used during his presentation to Wall Street
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ibm-gives-up-on-its-2015-promise-2014-10
http://www.ibm.com/investor/events/jpmorgan0510/presentation/slide.pdf

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 09:57 | Report Abuse

However IBM is irrelevant, here we are E&O fans. I am tracking to see announcements in Bursa relating to treasury shares sale (if any at all in the next few weeks) which will give me the prompt to collect more. Happy hunting E&O :thup

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-19 12:16 | Report Abuse

Charlie, IBM internal roadmap not the yearly target. The US20/share is their own target not for the public. I think what we are talking here is the target as the uSD20 per share has been a moving target of every 5 years whereas the share drop because they didn't meet quarterly target. I was interested because I use to work in IBM and a secondy to MAS.

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 13:26 | Report Abuse

Fatso haha u x-ibmer 2 huh. that $20 eps roadmap was declared to Wall Street after IBM achieved $10 eps easily that time (many ibmers then called it roadkill cos we knew what's coming). that's why u see those 2015 roadmap slides are lodged in the IBM public site under investor page which always holds all public announcements to Wall Street. If u don't believe you can google "IBM eps roadmap" and read articles from business week, business insider, etc. still don't believe, u can view link below on E&O public website and check out their investor page that holds all public announcement to Bursa :-)

Posted by ShwuJen > 2014-11-19 13:27 | Report Abuse

Hi, I am new here and just came across to discover that, some of the blog over here is not bad, example like KLSE Technical Analysis, They were writing analysis for Solutn, today it fly like god, hit their TP!! Now is time to go for Ijacobs? i think so..hehe >>

https://tr.im/dcf2d - KLSE Technical Analysis

https://tr.im/535f0 - Solutn Technical Analysis

https://tr.im/d497d - Ijacobs Technical Analysis

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 13:29 | Report Abuse

http://www.easternandoriental.com/investors-highlights.php

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-19 13:33 | Report Abuse

Charlie, You bought heavy into ENO?

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 15:01 | Report Abuse

Buy a bit lo nothing venture nothing gain ;-)

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-19 15:29 | Report Abuse

This means that mother + warrant is better than pre ex- date bonus dilution because of the 10-1 bonus in which better holding ability.

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 17:41 | Report Abuse

it's very simple call especially for good counters that have pending corp exercise and priced at premium for rights, private placement and/or warrant exercise price (barring mkt crash)

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-19 17:48 | Report Abuse

good example: protasco was trading around 1.40 earlier Jan while its private placement was priced @1.65 n free warrant exercise priced @2.00, then sold all their treasury shares in late Jan 2014 for 1.40-1.43, prior to entitlement dates

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-19 19:58 | Report Abuse

You are into warrant and bonus too ? Fitters was good but I didn't have enough in then. It was doing VWAP up to 22 Sept at 0.97cents. The warrant and bonus was at 2 for every 5. Technically 2 for 5 at 97cents execise = 27.7 cents per warrant with price before bonus ex date 9 Oct 97+ 27.7 = 1.25 and on ex 89cents approx. you can ref to historical price for this. Warrant must come after bonus although their ex date can be same but issue date has to be after bonus diluted .

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-19 23:18 | Report Abuse

I must commend the calculation done earlier n this one. The focus here is the TEBC OR VWAP. Normally TEBC is lower than the actual diluted price due to bonus on ex-day, Since you brought up Fitters, I did a check on Fitters owing to the VWAP done the 5 days after EGM. For those who do not understand VWAP have a read on this one. To achieve the VWAP to favor is difficult as it requires volume and price. If any syndicate push to early, they will lose the volume when it matters most ie during the 5 days.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:vwap_intraday

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-19 23:19 | Report Abuse

Any game now is for collectors n not speculators

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-20 03:25 | Report Abuse

Yup traded fitters, I normally take profit once it reach price/profit target
You can take a look at Jadi too

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-20 23:34 | Report Abuse

Even though EnO gave a fixed warrant exercise price at 2.90, many still unsure. Rightfully they should b unsure and EnO must give more direction ASAP. Ppl are unsure becoz talk is cheap however in my opinion EnO under Terry has never let down or contradict their own statement but this one came fr Eric.

Posted by jeannie > 2014-11-21 00:09 | Report Abuse

worst part its sinking down day by day, hopefully they give us the confidence again...I used to like this counter...its scaring me atm...

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-21 07:44 | Report Abuse

Upon EGM next week 28 Nov, by which the proposal of PDS, warrant and bonus should be approve by shareholders, it should be viewed as money in pocket for both investors and EnO & staff while awaiting the last piece of approval ie the DEIA final guideline. This guideline will be used in the tender and the award of the tender shall be weighted on it. This approval is part of the stringent accountability taken up by the penang Goverment to protect the shoreline and Eco enviroment that may arise due to the reclaim activity of coming stp2. The penang govt has earlier approved the project however subjected to this coming guideline of Deia being followed stringently.
So view this as good planning by EnO, if all the money is secured prior to the funding required for stp2. The tendering should be soon and award should b by Jan or Feb 2015.
I understand they want to fix the exercise price of warrant at rm2.90. This makes perfect sense becoz the recent buyback of 9.94% block fr Sime was at rm2.90 also. This mean everything will be weighted on the TEBC or VWAP price to calculate the premium since conversion is fixed. The premium must ensure the price looks attractive. To be attractive, the premium % must be as small as positive if in +ve region while premium in negative will raise the attractiveness of the warrant.

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-21 08:02 | Report Abuse

In most cases, the TEBP/VWAP which is the base of most calculation prior to the exercise is normally lower than the actual ex bonus price itself. Example if the TEBP(theoretical ex bonus price) is 2.854, this price is the indication of ex bonus however the real situation will depend on the run up to the day before the bonus ex date. If the run up is 3.5 on eve of bonus ex, the bonus ex day will be 3.18 base on 1 for 10. Note this is just an example as no one knows what the run up price will be. If the TEBP is approx what that have been slated, base of 1 for 5 warrant it should be around 47.5cents.
Do your own math and find the range base on the example I have given. Once you got that range, only then put in you bets as all of us bought at different price and have diff exposure.

Good luck!

Posted by Fatso8 > 2014-11-21 08:14 | Report Abuse

Thank you. My calculation is almost there also but my price after bonus ex at rm3.02 (technical calculation) but I put in a lower warrant price much below the 48cents boundary due to the 1:5. I put in 20+ cents region which is almost half of 48cents. I have only 1 question though,can the VWAP price be taken up to Sept 4 as coverage by Thestar business if the EGM approval is on 28Nov?

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-21 08:40 | Report Abuse

As I mention, I do not know what is the run up price before ex bonus however most cases the ex bonus is higher than the TEBP. Your 3.02 is higher than TEBP. The example of 3.5 is only illustration and we never know what will happen on run up. Suffice to say it will be higher than TEBP for now.
As for the other one on VWAP avg, it is possible the example given by the business coverage of 2.854 up to Sept 4 can be used because it's stated in most practices that VWAP price can be capture before ex date but I doubt you can use logically results longer than one quarter before the approval as fundamentally results are reported quarterly.

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-21 11:34 | Report Abuse

I suggest Eric Chan to reiterate the fixed 2.90 exercise price for warrant again and get the whole news flowing and not leave too long.

Posted by tan5995 > 2014-11-21 16:31 | Report Abuse

Good news also not use, still down ! Ha ha ha !

Posted by DreamConqueror > 2014-11-22 18:47 | Report Abuse

Edge TP = RM4

Posted by SaturnRises > 2014-11-23 18:53 | Report Abuse

We will need to see if it's TEAP or TEBP as PDS is not clearly stated yet!

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-11-23 22:59 | Report Abuse

We have seen recently how some so call SIFU making and leaving ordious mark of their legacy. These ppl have no morals, lack ability except self selling. They are stuck at that level and require additional tuition fee to subsidize their trading game. Has it come to that level? How else do you explain integrity when a person threatens to leave a forum only to come back time and time again. Do these ppl not feel embarrassed?
The answer as many have describe him as greedy, is not an extreme statement.
Even coming back time and time again, he has managed to give an excuse....
Even failure in his stock pick, he has found an excuse
And the reasons go on n on
Why?
Simple, these ppl leave in a denial world where lost is computed as holding cost while gain is seen as opportunity to market. I hv seen in my experience this type of ppl who don't serve the society for what is right but their own insatiable appetite for their onn consumption.
Still think I m far fetch? Watch him defend himself tooth n nail as he so called reputation however he is not able to directly defend himself and depend on hench man to sell him. On top of that, his only backup statement is all are the same person w new Id. I'm here because my id is as old as dinarsour here and I wish to refute that.
This is what that is happening to malaysia when the BN Govt treat all complain as the same person ie the opposition n they continue with the ruckus. OTB is no different, this is called divide n conquer as old fart are normally accustom to.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-11-25 11:13 | Report Abuse

Today I am inspired to write a piece on resistance and support. This area is very much a TA area of term usage as resistance and support has got to do with the number of overall buyers and and seller volume at a particular price. You can easily obtain that in the stock info summary of the day. I won't talk about the TA part per say as many are already familiar.

To understand this volume, there are three types of player
1. Those who follow when the price starts to breakaway hence contributing to the volume
2. Those premeditated, where they collect at every level, usually an investor
3. Those who use TA to ensure the price is above the resistance convincingly, normally traders before indulging in a buy

However what you do not know is that, there is a fourth type.
4. The fourth type is a party of interest. They create an enviroment for a specific exercise.
How does it work? Normally this works with an specific interest. Example. Your normal term used here I read is "someone is creating a roadblock..." A roadblock could mean many sellers buying at a specific price hence the price cannot move up until the sellers are cleared. Right?
Yes, and seller sells because they are either in a hurry to sell for what ever reason OR a premeditated selling
A premeditated selling is normally by a party of interest to ensure the volume of selling in The QUEUE in so high that it deter buyers especially when the buyer volume is very small.
This usually happen with an intent to ensure that buyers postpone their buying to a later date for the reason that they need consolidated buyers later to create volume and price. If you understand exactly what I am saying, you should also understand that there are only so many buyers And so much of money that will be transacted in a week or a mth.

Players already know the range by which volume of transaction and money exchanging hands that can be achieve. More so they know what volume during a bull, a bear or a stagnant situation. Volume is almost contained.

So understand that if there is 48Million to 50Million in volume (this is just an example) to be transacted within this week, and only 40 Million is trasacted at this point, they want to postpone as much as possible the 10 million to next week for a specific reason. GOT it?

Good Luck and happy reading

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-11-25 15:41 | Report Abuse

How do you know when a collector or investor is collecting? If they sizable player, they (collector) may buy up most of the seller's volume. If the seller's volume is also sizable, the price won't move much however if the volume of seller is small, the price will take up to the highest price the seller may offer. The catch is this, once all seller are taken up,what is left may not suffice to sustain the price, hence the price will drop.
What normally would be nice is a catalyst that come in timely which create further volume.
I like to use this analogy
A utility based service is always better and more efficient. You pay as you use. Much like the analogy of a continental car where turbo is fitted as oppose to Japanese 2.4 or 3 litre cc cars, which you carry around when most of the time you don't need the power. In Turbo, the power kicks in when the rev demands it to do so. This creates a continuous powertrain. This turbo fitted even on 1.8cc has much better torque than a 2.4 or 3 litre Japanese car as it is design for this purpose.

So in understanding that analogy, the stock you choose, you have to understand whether there is a turbo fitted to ensure that the price continues to move up north. If otherwise, you have chosen a stock without a supplement turbo or catalyst to power it to the next level.

Another utility is nitrogen fitted into the gas chamber, however when these nitrogen is used, it gives a temporary short boost.

So here I have shared
1. A non utility base ie the analogy of a high cc japanese cars which cars power 24 by 7 even when not required
2. A utility base power ie the analogy of a turbo which when need base on the rev, they kick in
3. A utility base booster ie the nitrogen into gas chamber which is finite and is used only for a good finishing

So have a thought what type of stock you hold.
I hear some asking what about EnO?
EnO 's case is this, because it carries a PE of 27 , I would akin this to .....EnO not having no 1 or no 2 at this point but it carries no 3. This no 3 can very quickly change the race when all the car fuel is low now in an endurance race in the property sector. So once the STP 2 is in, the booster kicks in as a multi year revenue generator. What is good is focus on a large piece of valuable product considered done deal while they can continue with their other endevour in London and Iskandar


Hope it makes good sense for you as it is for me.! cheers

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-11-25 16:02 | Report Abuse

Finally I have to say this, pls don't buy EnO if you cannot the booster being utilize soon. Believe to buy, don't buy to believe.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-11-25 16:54 | Report Abuse

I have said many times earlier, that the financial Instituitions will be saddled very soon. Reason I gave was, loans were very stringent & scarce and their loan base were shrinking. The only thing holding the banks together in my opinion was Zeti from the broad perspective. Here we are trying to say that the banks are trying to avoid NPL while on the other hand they needed to grow. Most like Cimb and Maybank has been hit by their foreign investment then.

We have recently seen both Cimb and RHB results reflecting exactly just that and today HLFG also show similar trend. The saying goes that if you cannot grow your business in your own country whilst your foreign investment is showing weakness, the only way is merge. When you merge, the probability of resizing your workforce and improving efficiency is greater.

If you cannot make more business in revenue, does not mean you cannot improve your profitability. Because profitability is a measure of efficiency when growth is not abound. Like Steve Job always said...." It's not about making it faster or better than your competitor but it's about making it different.
Hence in a way, it meant if your competitor has 10 people to get the job done, it does not mean you need 11 to make the job faster and more efficient. Because then, you will be growing a fixed cost in staffing.
I remember recently when Public Bank offered Red Carpet to me ( I believe was last year ) they called me up and said that they were offering me, to service me better. I told them that even as is, their service was very good and the queue is so short every time I m there that I don't even have time to fill the form before my number was called. Well they convince me that all forms etc will be taken care and any banking can be service up to my hse. You see previously I only used this service with HSBC as I conduct more overseas banking services than local and now my local bank wants to take this portfolio too.

Not bad considering that now I spend more time back in Malaysia since my LA endeavor that has ended. However when I was there to complete some documents, the coordinating manager told me I had to pay RM10 to activate the bloody red carpet account and they gave me a photo frame. Now is that efficiency and profitability at its best. Of course I was angry at being invited for a supposedly prestigious service but still have to pay rm10. But then again, I paid the rm10 which was unlike me really! I paid because it had the very essence and reason why I moved a lot of my money there two years ago. It wa because of the prudent management and efficiency which ensure my money was safe. I paid and treated it as charity for a good and excellent managed bank.

So moving forward, with all this ibex ng mention, loan base shrinking, loans are hard to come by, etc how will the property sector kick off? I write a bit later and let you have a thought abt it first!

Posted by Saturn > 2014-11-26 09:39 | Report Abuse

:)

Posted by Saturn > 2014-11-26 21:31 | Report Abuse

Now we have L&G, GOB, and a few other Property developer who did well in the latest financial report while the banks on the other hand seem to be be on the opposite spectrum. The only measurement we don't have is the official report on consumer/property buyer.
So if upstream loans are stuck, it is understandable that The cash rich developers may be more resourceful to obtain finances apart from their own thru private placement, rights, and other debt notes to raise funds however normally these funds are raised specific in tandem with a launch. Because by doing so, the developer can anticipate the launch and the completion.
The launch is important because of two things.....the real take up rate and the completion date. Why? Because the real take up rate would mean the buyers that have secured their loan and % would be very key. This is so because the developer cannot start work with 50% or even 60% or 70% take up. Remember that developer will invoice base on progressive completion. Hence if a project is 10% billed, they have 90% unbilled. Imagine if the take up rate is 60% and the developer starts work, the second progressive payment will only cover 60% and the developer has to bond the 40% balance.

Hence they will always have to wait for the take up rate to be sufficient before they start. However by waiting, this may affect the completion date. This is why, in you SnP, the date is always stretch longer than what is promise. Example 36 mths is promise but in SnP a d loan it probably 40 mths or 45 mths etc.

So we now understand the unbilled right? But how does it explain that these buyers are able to secure the loans or do they? With DIBS previously, the best way to play it was to take maximum loan ie 90%. Those who take 90% loans are not the poor but in contrary. This is because most of the hses or condo are a million and above these days. This means only the rich can afford to secure a 90% loan as their monthly repayment will be very high. The trick here is to play DIBS against Lock in period. The bank loans normally have a lock in period say 2 years or 3 years? And the DIBS will be for the duration starting when the loan is dispersed to the developer by the bank however the developer bears the interest. So if you take 90% loan, the loan will kick in very soon and the developer will start bearing the interest (with DIBS) right? Assuming completion is 3 years and lock down for 3 years, you pay basically 10% until handover. The trick here is the rich will par down immediately after the hand over (which coincide with the expiry of the lock down period) or even pay off the property and get the MOT and Power of Attorney transferred straight away.

In these cases, the developer also takes a risk and hence it is always good to ensure you buy from a reputable developers to avoid abandon projects especially in this climate.

Now that DIBS is no longer in play, developers offer furthe discount to the 7+3% or 8+3 % and so on and some even offer to pay MOT or 3rd tier discount. We are seeing more take up even when loans are hard to comeby however these will soon saturate as the earlier perceived good properties are all taken up and the buyer left will soon be very selective unless the banks open up or other means of loans are provided.

If Banks are cornered, developers are cornered, the economy will fail and we cannot afford that. I believe under Zeti, something will soon be done before the check mate.

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-27 08:50 | Report Abuse

run up yesterday possibly ahead of the EGM tomorrow to approve the bonus, warrant n rcmtn
today is last day to be included into 5DVAMP calculation for warrant exercise pricing
let's see how it goes

Posted by dusti > 2014-11-27 11:16 | Report Abuse

Pray hard babe

Posted by Saturn > 2014-11-27 15:27 | Report Abuse

See you all at Bukit Kiara tomorrow. Be there of be square.!

Posted by Clueless > 2014-11-28 10:19 | Report Abuse

Saturn, may I know what time the EGM commence?

Posted by tan5995 > 2014-11-28 10:33 | Report Abuse

20 minutes EGM

Posted by Saturn > 2014-11-28 10:46 | Report Abuse

Tan5995 must be the seconder for resolution 1? The fear of the MTn is allayed. We only need to focus on warrants and Bonus. Mid Jan 2015 should complete as proposed. This means now till end of December will be interesting. !!

Posted by tan5995 > 2014-11-28 10:47 | Report Abuse

Ha ha ha !

Posted by Saturn > 2014-11-28 12:03 | Report Abuse

Collect when down!! This message is for EnO players only. Those not in this game avoid at all cost.

Posted by Saturn > 2014-11-28 12:28 | Report Abuse

Some worry abt warrant reserve....we should worry abt getting this out of the way for a double take instead of over technical play. While I respected the only question that came fr the floor, I also hope thing move quickly. The double take will allow the price to fluctuate two times and allow you to play the game twice and profit twice also.

Posted by charlie82 > 2014-11-29 06:17 | Report Abuse

Approved and a good set of QR results too.
Next milestone is entitlement date announcement will be end December, whereby price may spike for warrant conversion price fixing purposes.

However be wary of possible treasury shares sale between now and entitlement date (end January). This is what happened to Protasco earlier this year when they sold all their treasury shares at 1.40-1.44 before rising to 2.00+. If ever E&O does the same, I may add some, else lets watch with glee yah...message for E&O fans only...

Posted by rizerlee > 2014-12-03 08:22 | Report Abuse

STP2 select contractor by this month ?

Posted by greendragon > 2014-12-03 13:31 | Report Abuse

what happened to this counter, keep droping heavily since yesterday

Posted by Saturn > 2014-12-06 11:24 | Report Abuse

Looks like the property bandwagon is heating up BIG TIME. Remember i used the word hedge, actually the hedge is not on the property asset but the Landbank itself. After all if the country management and inflation doesn't look up, the land banks will soar as it is now. So the BIG question is, do you think our govt of the day can arrest the inflation ? Think fuel, think ringgit exchange, think think tank, think policies that have so far been successful....any?
If you can see Malaysia out of inflation with the coming GST, then bet Malaysia, bet banks/financial Instituition, bet ringgit...if not , YOU SHOULD BETTER BET SOMETHING TANGIBLE THAT YOU CAN HOLD AND SEE A PAPER WITH YOUR NAME. if you say banks, do you know what is the investment the bank is doing behind? If you still insist bank, I would say Public Bank is a close bet