Technically, it is not looking good for WTK as its 20-Day Moving Average is sloping downward and its price action is below the Moving Average line. Furthermore the support level is still quite far away at 0.955.
Why Bargain Exist? 14 October 2014 drop RM1.20 (previously around RM1.40) 1 Dec 2014 drop RM1 13 May 2014 drop RM1
Above situation mainly due to Alanya Marine Acquisition by issue 43.3M new ordinary shares (23 Dec 2014), about 10% outstanding share. Partly due to investor too focus on timber future prospect (legal claim or potential tarik lessen). Actually, this is NOT a bargain share. Cold eye bought it because he can see the future of company (business insight) just like the reason he invest in POHUAT, Furniture Company to export good to overseas. (US housing grow, increase US currency) He aims the plantation business to show profit!
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Outstanding share: 481M Price: RM1.08/share MC: RM520M Based on Annual Report 2014, Current asset (536)-all debt (450) = 86M [confirm value] PPE (bank guarantee value, note 13) = 255M [confirm value] Balance value: 179M Timber PBT (e.g project area within License No. LPF/0032, note 13): 35M [less confirm value] Palm oil : 86.4M [less confirms value, 2016E]
Palm oil Analysis Assume CPO price: RM2300-2600 Production cost/ton: RM1300-1600 Monthly production FFB: 3000 mt Total production/year: 36,000 mt 炼油率:20% Profit/ton: RM800 PBT: 36,000 mt x 0.2x RM800=RM5.76M Palm oil value: RM5.76M x 15= 86.4M
RISK 1) Potential Tarik Lesen But at least take few years to proceed (appeal to high court). 2) Potential legal claim -S17(a) & (b) MACC act [5x nilai rasuah] -S4(1) Anti-money laudering, Anti-Terrorism Financing and Proceed of unlawful activities Act 2001 [Less than 5M] -Forest Bill 2015 [less than RM500K] 3) Potential Cash burner machine: Alanya Marine Acquisition Paid RM89M for 49% ownership Means 182M with potential PAT 11M [EV/PAT 16.5] 4) Bad Management Wrong Decision Continue invest in losing money business such as oil & gas, forest plantation But, it will be less likely to happen because high insider ownership 30.76%. However, still need to monitor management investment decision.
UPSIDE You pay RM520M worth for timber business and FREE plantation business.
Plantation Business Value at least worth 86.4M with a huge potential above 265M (palm oil biological asset value) NTA RM2.79, P/NTA=0.38 Goal to be P/NTA 1
SIGNAL Fong siling bought NEW position RM5M (around RM1/share) in this company. [VERY BIG POSITION, normally only 1-2M] Datuk Wong Kie Yik, Founder recently bought 420,000 share (Jan-June 2015) average price RM1.05/share. (Annual salary RM135k) Datuk Wong Kie Yik seldom buy share use his name except on 2001 year only (from 1999-2014).
china man company, big man still accumulating the stock..once he sapu enough, good news will come to push it higher for him to double/triple his wealth
the news is now japan disaster heavy flood ,many house damage ,so they need more plywood this is main news ,same 2011 tsunami all plywood counter fly double price, look at history, this is my opinion why I bought wtk,
wtk still the best among logging stocks, which has lowest ration of palm oil biz, lengyan's top holding after Pohuat, July logging quantity record high, Sarawak Illegal logging crackdown silence dy, I'm in WTK at .94.
2011 I bought less than rm1 that time not yet happen tsunami actually I so lucky. after 1 week suddenly happen disaster ,so sad, after that broker house start point plywood counter ,during 2 week up 100% I gain and get small house.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tksw
12,898 posts
Posted by tksw > 2015-05-14 16:19 | Report Abuse
die lor, die lor, WTK 109 liao. Illegal logging dunno involved or not?