Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 11:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 11:18 | Report Abuse

Genting pun crashed b4 mah. Then why you still promote Genting leh. You also using HOPE juga to promote Genting will recover to Patriah time high mah. Haiyoh. Correct?




emsvsi

ALL THE (JUSTIN) BELIEBERS SAY 'THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT', THIS TIME THERE WONT BE LOSSES, THIS TIME SPREADS WILL BE POSITIVE

WHERE HAVE WE HEARD THAT BEFORE

YES GLOVES

REMEMBER HISTORY ALWAYS REPEATS ITSELF EHAT GOES UP WILL COME CRASHING DOWN

SINCERELY,
EMSVSI

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 11:20 | Report Abuse

You mean HY Eps remain at rock bottom. Haiyoh. Correct?


probability

Rock bottom EPS analysis - update 13/09/22
.........................

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 11:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 11:30 | Report Abuse

Rock bottom EPS analysis - update 13/09/22
.........................

let us assume as extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 53/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 9.7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 9.7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 53 ) + (0.07 x 39) + (0.35 x 9.7) + (0.12 x 9.7)
= (24.4 + 2.7 + 3.4 + 1.2)
= US $ 31.7 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (31.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 763 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 763
= 1003 million MYR

PBT = 900 million
PAT = 684 million
EPS = 2.28

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 11:30 | Report Abuse

The difference between (1) 240 million & (2) 763 million, is what will be the maximum possible derivate loss - ie, opportunity lost.. the extra money they could have made if they did not hedge at all.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-13 12:00 | Report Abuse

@probability derivation loss = opportunity loss. This is the best description for layman to understand.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-13 12:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-13 12:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Hengyuan establishes RM5 bil MTN programme, accepts RM1.3 bil in revolving credit facilities

By Izzul Ikram | theedgemarkets.com | 2022-09-12 19:00:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 12): Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd has established an unrated medium-term notes (MTN) programme of up to RM5 billion in nominal value, and accepted RM1.31 billion in multi-currency revolving credit (RC) facilities.

In a Bursa Malaysia filing, the crude oil refiner said the purpose of the MTN programme and RC facilities is to refinance its existing loans, fund the medium-term growth and working capital of the company, as well as allow Hengyuan to proceed with its planned upgrade and maintenance projects for its refinery.

Hengyuan said tranches of the RM5 bil MTN programme will be issued over a tenure of 30 years via bought deal or private placement.

The company said it made an initial lodgement for the establishment of the MTN programme to the Securities Commission Malaysia on June 30, and subsequently relodged last Thursday (Sept 8) following certain revisions to the principal terms and conditions of the programme.

AmInvestment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bhd are the joint principal advisers, joint lead arrangers, and joint lead managers of the MTN programme, while Malaysian Trustees Bhd is the trustee.

Meanwhile, on the RC facilities, Hengyuan said they comprise a US dollar facility of up to US$235 million (RM1.06 billion) and a ringgit facility of up to RM250 million offered by AmBank (M) Bhd, China Construction Bank Corp, Labuan Branch and Malayan Banking Bhd.

"The RC facilities are subject to the approval of Bank Negara Malaysia and this was received by Hengyuan on Aug 3," it added.

Shares in Hengyuan finished three sen or 0.65% lower at RM4.57 on Monday (Sept 12), giving the company a market capitalisation of RM1.37 billion.
Edited by S Kanagaraju
----------------------
If Hengyuan will suffer billions of unrealised losses on refined derivatives, which bank will lend money to Hengyuan ?

If Hengyuan is over hedging and suffers heavy hedging losses on refined derivatives, banks will not approve this medium-term notes (MTN) programme of up to RM5 billion in nominal value, and accept RM1.31 billion in multi-currency revolving credit (RC) facilities.

Banks will lend money to a solid stock like Hengyuan means bankers have already scrutinised their Accounts under the microscope. All rumours about unrealised refined derivative losses are not a concern to the banks now.

The worst is over, the share price will perform well after this announcement.
Good luck and may god bless you always.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-13 12:05 | Report Abuse

The problem is IB and a lot of investors can’t see that.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-13 12:12 | Report Abuse

@qqq3333 diesel is subsidise by the government. If you buy industrial diesel, then diesel is higher than petrol now.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 12:20 | Report Abuse

qqq3,

Singapore Gasoil (Platts)
Futures and Options
Month Options Prior
SEP 2022; SGBU2:139.992
OCT 2022; SGBV2:136.840
NOV 2022; SGBX2:131.347

SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) FUTURES - QUOTES
SEP 2022;N1BU2: 97.581
OCT 2022;N1BV2: 94.200
NOV 2022;N1BX2: 91.512

Brent crude now is about 93.82

So Gasoil/Mogas92 crack spread is their price diferent against Brent crude.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 12:27 | Report Abuse

Very important Question if u can answer then u will solve the mystery loh!
Btw...it is not an exchange....it is an individual counter party....having a private deal with Hengyuan mah!

Who is the sooohaaiiii counter party dare to bet one to one... with a refinery like HRC, on Refining margin swap on one to one bet leh ??

What is there for them, what is counter party their competitive edge over hengyuan leh ?

The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!

WHY GENERAL RAIDER ASK THIS VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION LEH ?
"Who is the sooohaaiiii counter party dare to bet one to one massively of more than billions... with a refinery like HRC, on Refining margin swap on one to one bet leh" ?

AS U ALL KNOW, THERE ARE REALLY NO COMMODITIES MKT for 'REFINERY MARGIN SWAP' TRADED....IF U WANT TO BET...U NEED TO FIND A COUNTER PARTY LOH!

THATS LEAD TO RAIDER VIRTUAL REFINERY EXPLAINATIONS EARLIER LOH! SUPPOSE BASE ON SSLEE PAPER CALCULATION, U CAN ACTUALLY MAKE USD 35 PER BARREL MARGIN ON PETROL & DIESEL WHEN U HEDGE FWD LOH! BUT AS RAIDER EXPLAIN THIS PAPER SUCCESS , NEED TO FACE THE CHALLENGE OF MKT VOLATILITY & ACTUAL EXECUTION LOH...THUS TRANSLATE TO A PROBABILITY SUCCESS RATE OF SAY 75% LOH!
THIS SHOULD BE POSITIVE FOR HENGYUAN IF THEY GO BUY CRUDE BRENT & SELL DIESEL & PETROL future IN ORDER TO HEDGE AND LOCK IN A POTENTIAL PROFIT DUE TO THE HIGHER PROBABLE SUCCESS LOH!

BUT INSTEAD OF HENGYUAN DOING THAT....THEY LOOK FOR A FRIENDLY VIRTUAL REFINERY..TO BE THE COUNTER PARTY OFFERING THEM A "REFINERY MARGIN SWAP" WITH USD 10 MARGIN.....AND THE VIRTUAL REFINERY WILL DO THE HEDGE WITH A GROSS PAPER PROFIT MARGIN OF USD 35....N THEY OFFER HENGYUAN REFINERY MARGIN OF USD 10....THUS THE VIRTUAL REFINERY APPEAR SAFELY HEDGE AT USD 25 LOH!

THUS HENGYUAN WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF VOLATILITY & EXECUTION risk WITH INADEQUATE MARGIN OF SAFETY OF USD 10 LOH! THAT COULD BE THE EXPLAINATION, WHY HENGYUAN MAKE LOSSES OF MORE THAN RM 1 BILLION ON A REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!

THE ABOVE SUSPICIOUS ARRANGEMENT IS "BUSINESS LIKE & IT APPEAR LEGAL" BUT IT WILL BE THE DETRIMENTAL TO HENGYUAN SHAREHOLDERS IN THE LONG RUN LOH!

"A quick check on Petron....there is no Refining Margin swap hedge done loh"!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 12:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 12:38 | Report Abuse

Gasoline Crack - Singapore Mogas 92 Unleaded (Platts) vs Brent 1st Line Balmo Future

A balance of the month cash settled future based on the difference between the Platts daily assessment price for Singapore Mogas Gasoline 92 unleaded and the ICE daily settlement price for Brent 1st Line Future.

Gasoil Crack - Singapore Gasoil (Platts) vs Brent 1st Line Future
Description
A monthly cash settled future based on the difference between the Platts daily assessment price for Singapore Gasoil and the ICE daily settlement price for Brent 1st Line Future.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 12:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 12:46 | Report Abuse

SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES - QUOTES
SEP 2022:D1NU2: 4.968
OCT 2022:D1NV2: 2.586

From CME Group

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-13 12:50 | Report Abuse

Expected and good for those who managed to cash out above 4.70. This is consolidating phase. Any positive news have limited upside but one potential setback will lead this to another new level.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 13:05 | Report Abuse

qqq3 if you hedged X amt with refining margin at USD 15 for a period that mean come rain or sunny day you are ensured to earn gross profit of USD 15 per barrel on the X amt provided you have done your physical crude buying and refined products selling of X amount for the period.

What is loss/gain in refining margin swap contracts for the period will be offset by physical crude buying and refined products selliing better/poorer margin acheived for the period.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-13 13:06 | Report Abuse

This is not an ordinary sector but commodity depending heavily on the oil price fluctuation.
Any major changes will still impact the stock price whether from the investors, economic and stock market perceptions. You have seen the peak and it's time to find the new low. It happened to Gloves, steel, palm oil and of course oil sector. Be patient and let it land far below everyone's expectation and look for the comfortable entry point.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 13:10 | Report Abuse

qqq3,
It never easy to venture into running your own business so better to stay in i3 and more easy to make some free lunch and dinner money from share trading.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:13 | Report Abuse

Raider already said mah!
The losses of Hengyuan is mainly due Refinery Margin Swap....mah!
This is route to a 3rd counter party betting with hengyuan mah!

The risk already highlighted below loh!

Very important Question if u can answer then u will solve the mystery loh!
Btw...it is not an exchange....it is an individual counter party....having a private deal with Hengyuan mah!

Who is the sooohaaiiii counter party dare to bet one to one... with a refinery like HRC, on Refining margin swap on one to one bet leh ??

What is there for them, what is counter party their competitive edge over hengyuan leh ?

The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!

WHY GENERAL RAIDER ASK THIS VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION LEH ?
"Who is the sooohaaiiii counter party dare to bet one to one massively of more than billions... with a refinery like HRC, on Refining margin swap on one to one bet leh" ?

AS U ALL KNOW, THERE ARE REALLY NO COMMODITIES MKT for 'REFINERY MARGIN SWAP' TRADED....IF U WANT TO BET...U NEED TO FIND A COUNTER PARTY LOH!

THATS LEAD TO RAIDER VIRTUAL REFINERY EXPLAINATIONS EARLIER LOH! SUPPOSE BASE ON SSLEE PAPER CALCULATION, U CAN ACTUALLY MAKE USD 35 PER BARREL MARGIN ON PETROL & DIESEL WHEN U HEDGE FWD LOH! BUT AS RAIDER EXPLAIN THIS PAPER SUCCESS , NEED TO FACE THE CHALLENGE OF MKT VOLATILITY & ACTUAL EXECUTION LOH...THUS TRANSLATE TO A PROBABILITY SUCCESS RATE OF SAY 75% LOH!
THIS SHOULD BE POSITIVE FOR HENGYUAN IF THEY GO BUY CRUDE BRENT & SELL DIESEL & PETROL future IN ORDER TO HEDGE AND LOCK IN A POTENTIAL PROFIT DUE TO THE HIGHER PROBABLE SUCCESS LOH!

BUT INSTEAD OF HENGYUAN DOING THAT....THEY LOOK FOR A FRIENDLY VIRTUAL REFINERY..TO BE THE COUNTER PARTY OFFERING THEM A "REFINERY MARGIN SWAP" WITH USD 10 MARGIN.....AND THE VIRTUAL REFINERY WILL DO THE HEDGE WITH A GROSS PAPER PROFIT MARGIN OF USD 35....N THEY OFFER HENGYUAN REFINERY MARGIN OF USD 10....THUS THE VIRTUAL REFINERY APPEAR SAFELY HEDGE AT USD 25 LOH!

THUS HENGYUAN WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF VOLATILITY & EXECUTION risk WITH INADEQUATE MARGIN OF SAFETY OF USD 10 LOH! THAT COULD BE THE EXPLAINATION, WHY HENGYUAN MAKE LOSSES OF MORE THAN RM 1 BILLION ON A REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!

THE ABOVE SUSPICIOUS ARRANGEMENT IS "BUSINESS LIKE & IT APPEAR LEGAL" BUT IT WILL BE THE DETRIMENTAL TO HENGYUAN SHAREHOLDERS IN THE LONG RUN LOH!

"A quick check on Petron....there is no Refining Margin swap hedge done loh"!

Posted by Sslee > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

qqq3 if you hedged X amt with refining margin at USD 15 for a period that mean come rain or sunny day you are ensured to earn gross profit of USD 15 per barrel on the X amt provided you have done your physical crude buying and refined products selling of X amount for the period.

What is loss/gain in refining margin swap contracts for the period will be offset by physical crude buying and refined products selliing better/poorer margin acheived for the period.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:19 | Report Abuse

Lu tau boh...!
The USD 12.70....margin hedge computed by sslee mah! ??

But who the hell knows....what the hell refinery margin swap....get executing the trade with a counter party virtual refinery loh!

Of course The Virtual Refinery would have taken their cut of margin....by being a counter party....hedging the risk....using hengyuan trade leh ??

Posted by BobAxelrod > 6 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Simply put :
Sslee please correct if wrong.
a) Hedged the crack spread at USD$12.70.....fixed and don't give a damn to future moving parts/price. this is what you will get.
b) I thought the Buying of Crude is done on Futures, same time as Selling Refined Gasoline on Futures. This is your raw material purchase price and your selling price of finished products???...NO??

The profits margin of the Crude and the finished product is ADDED to the crack spread of USD12.70 (fixed)......

In the event of the crack spread (physical) which is the higher Production Cost...there would be a loss if higher than USD12.70....True?
**********************************************************
Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse
qqq3 if you hedged X amt with refining margin at USD 15 for a period that mean come rain or sunny day you are ensured to earn gross profit of USD 15 per barrel on the X amt provided you have done your physical crude buying and refined products selling of X amount for the period.

What is loss/gain in refining margin swap contracts for the period will be offset by physical crude buying and refined products selliing better/poorer margin acheived for the period.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:20 | Report Abuse

The main point....we can see....is hengyuan loses alot of money from its Refining Margin Swap mah!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:23 | Report Abuse

The main question, we need to ask is the refining margin swap...executed sufficient to cover the risk hengyuan is taking meh ?

IS THE COUNTER PARTY BETTING AGST HENGYUAN is really a soooohaiiii leh ?
Who is the sooohaaiiii counter party dare to bet one to one... with a refinery like HRC, on Refining margin swap on one to one bet leh ??
What is there for them, what is counter party their competitive edge over hengyuan leh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:27 | Report Abuse

Do not forget the Counter Party betting agst Hengyuan already wins Rm 1.3billion as at 30-6-2022.....how much profit are they willing to give back to Hengyuan leh ??

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:28 | Report Abuse

U R one of the pest is it ?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 17 seconds ago | Report Abuse

If anyone dare not touch the dead rat, kindly call for Ridesct... they will fumigate the room as well...the stench is very bad........ thank you.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:40 | Report Abuse

Someone please pull the power plug to this copier.......thanks

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 13:43 | Report Abuse

The are two way in doing refining margin hedged.
1. Directly hedge cash settlement mogas and gasoil crack spread future with financial instituts that offer you the quote.
2. By cash settlement commodity swap contracts in buying current month Brent crude and selling next month mogas and gasoil future.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:43 | Report Abuse

No need to bullllshiiit mah!

The Revolving Credit is to exchange for existing facility which is already drawdown...mah!
The bank will easily refinance the drawdown loan loh!

The Rm 5 billion MTN facility is still in the process....subject to BNM approval loh!
U will notice....even if the MTN is approved.....there will be no standby financier or underwriter to fund bcos it is subject to prevailing condition at the moment when Hengyuan need to issue....the arranger are just at agent to facilitate bought deal or private placement loh!

Most importantly....the bond is unrated...thus interest rates will be high....something like 8.5% pa to 11% pa depending on the length of the bond mah!

The non rating...reflect the weakness of Hengyuan loh!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

As mentioned last night, Time is of no essence since 5 Billions Bonds and 1.31 Billions RC approved by Bankers. The following application to BNM may take a few days but I assume they are also working quickly to allow the early flow of Investment funds.

From and expecting the next announcement.....HY should not be at this level of price anymore since they are moving in the right Financial shuffling and with EXTRA financial strength..... BE PREPARED.

TAYOR

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-13 13:48 | Report Abuse

There no such thing as crack future mkt mah!
The one u see in the CME mogas crack spread...is just illustration for u to feel the potential margin...with the interaction of crude v end products .....attributable to a refinery

If want to hedge....u need to find a counter party to do a private deal....like raider has highlighted


Posted by Sslee > 31 seconds ago | Report Abuse

The are two way in doing refining margin hedged.
1. Directly hedge cash settlement mogas and gasoil crack spread future with financial instituts that offer you the quote.
2. By cash settlement commodity swap contracts in buying current month Brent crude and selling next month mogas and gasoil future.

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2022-09-13 13:51 | Report Abuse

tp 40

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:52 | Report Abuse

MM back to clear your table? Understand the copier is working much more efficiently and cheaper too.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 13:54 | Report Abuse

Final warning letter to MM,
The management view your failure to push HRC price down to RM 4.00 last week as serious breach of contract hence we decided to cut the payment from RM 0.01 to half sens per your post in i3.

If you fail your duty to push down HRC price to RM 3.0 by month end then we will terminate your services and proceed with legal action to recover our loss of of RM 1 billion from you for your failure.

Your boss.
Apa Malu Bossku

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 13:57 | Report Abuse

Rock bottom EPS analysis - update 13/09/22
.........................

let us assume as extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 53/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 9.7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 9.7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 53 ) + (0.07 x 39) + (0.35 x 9.7) + (0.12 x 9.7)
= (24.4 + 2.7 + 3.4 + 1.2)
= US $ 31.7 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (31.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 763 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 763
= 1003 million MYR

PBT = 900 million
PAT = 684 million
EPS = 2.28

The difference between (1) 240 million & (2) 763 million, is what will be the maximum possible derivate loss - ie, opportunity lost.. the extra money they could have made if they did not hedge at all.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 13:57 | Report Abuse

Cash flow hedge (CFH) figures (544 million):
...........................................

Is the loss for the hedging instrument that has matured awaiting recognition along with the hedged item (once sales transaction takes place in future) to realize this amount as derivative loss to deliver the hedged margin (after derivative loss) of USD 12.7/brl on P&L statement.


Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) figures (786 million):
...................................................

Is a hypothetical - forecasted loss if the balance - remaining portion of hedging instrument that has not matured as of 30th June (currently has maturity till 2024) , matures as per the mark-to-market spot rate figure of 30th June within next 12 months.

Considering that, Gasoline Mogas 95 had its spot price the highest ever on 30th June (31.7 + 4 = 35.7 USD/brl), the COHR value mark-to-market was extremely high as per below number: 786 million (or 1,034 million before tax)

= 9 million barrels balance not matured x ( hedged crack of 10 USD/brl - Spot figure 35.7 USD/brl as of 30th June) x 4.5 MYR/USD
= 1040 MYR

From the above we can conclude that about 9 million barrels of Gasoline Mogas 95 will mature in 12 months at average rate of 0.75 million barrels per month. At sales volume of 3.5 million barrels per month, thats at 21% level.

Even with the assumption of 'front loading', i.e more hedged instruments are expiring earlier than being evenly distributed over the 12 months period, we can expect max maturity as per the gasoline yield of 35%.

As such the rock bottom EPS estimation with 50% hedging is extremely conservative.
........

Further, the above forecasted COHR loss figure will change at the end of Sept when the gasoline Mogas 95 crack spread is hovering 10 USD/brl, i.e COHR will register almost zero figure (but this does not matter at all for the overall EPS).

Important take away from above is how much opportunity is lost due to hedging - and we can see its likely max 35%.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 13:58 | Report Abuse

I have sat down with those nice ppl at BNM and let me assure you, they'll make it a priority for Investment funds.

I have done taking up PP blocks and engineering a back door listing in 2001, can you guess which one, MM dear?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 14:00 | Report Abuse

You didn't read my posts last night ke?????

You don't use Documentary Credits to retire any Term Loan lah....basic also don't know???

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 14:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 14:04 | Report Abuse

REPOST :

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

17 hours ago | Report Abuse

With 1.31 billions in Revolving Credits....you don't need Cold Hard Cash anymore.....all Documentary Credits....pushing papers lah......hahahaha

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 14:04 | Report Abuse

REPOST :

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

17 hours ago | Report Abuse

Correct!...2 thumbs up!!!
That's why I was hoping the Banks would approve and debunk MM's myth...also Bankers done the due diligence for us Investors......syabas!!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 14:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 14:08 | Report Abuse

Some simple examples...for this trade...LC (many forms), TR, Bills Discounting, Past Due Bills, Money Market swaps........but then they already have in Multi Currency, an added advantage....

Kids!!!