Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 17:40 | Report Abuse

you should know why i never came to HY forum since 2017, but only after Mar 22...

a company is not a like an animal where it has inherent property that never changes..

a company is defined by the opportunities & circumstances that arise..

its extremely dynamic and even more so - stock trade/investments

Posted by anthonytkh > Sep 13, 2022 5:33 PM | Report Abuse

Lol probability wants to know the truth

Truth’s been there for 5 to 7 years when it comes to the company. Truth’s been there for the past 5 months when it comes to the share price

Trade it like I said before

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 17:42 | Report Abuse

@tehka, MM defeated by these:


Posted by probability > Sep 13, 2022 4:16 PM | Report Abuse X

@MM.

your lay man theory ABSOLUTELY WRONG, as they have hedged till 2024

YOU NEED TO IMPROVE YOUR IQ..

9 million barrels of hedged instruments cannot expire within 3 months

if that happens, Q2 would have reported EPS as if its 100% hedged at 12 USD/brl margin but they reported above 28 USD/brl!!

1 QTR revenue is 10 million barrels

that should be simple common sense to layman...


Posted by probability > Sep 13, 2022 4:26 PM | Report Abuse X

@MM simple question to you...

what is the difference between Cash flow hedge reserve and Cost of hedging Reserve...

you do not know IFRS 9...

MM - OBVIOUSLY DO NOT KNOW A SINGLE THING ABOUT OCI...LOL!

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-09-13 17:53 | Report Abuse

Fuel markets to stay tight till mid-2020s as refining shrinks
Reuters |
Sep 13, 2022 05:09AM

By Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil refining capacity has shrunk by a record 3.8 million barrels per day from March 2020 to mid-2022 as demand expanded, setting the stage for fuel markets to remain very tight until at least mid-decade, International Energy Forum and S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) research showed.
The fall in capacity comes as oil demand rose by 5.6 million bpd over the same period, the report released on Tuesday said.

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-13 17:55 | Report Abuse

A public listed company is not defined by opportunities and circumstances when it comes to its share price. Why are we here? The company’s performance or its share price movements?

Record breaking profits with no real enthusiasm from “investors”. Cash balance reduced, debtors and creditors both increased, liabilities way higher than equity. That’s at least 3 quarters in a row last time I checked

The MTN? Look at my above paragraph…

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 17:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 17:56 | Report Abuse

hope by then (mid 2020s..) we have anthonytkh repeating the same rhetoric here...LOL!

Posted by BoomBerg > Sep 13, 2022 5:53 PM | Report Abuse

Fuel markets to stay tight till mid-2020s as refining shrinks
Reuters |
Sep 13, 2022 05:09AM

By Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil refining capacity has shrunk by a record 3.8 million barrels per day from March 2020 to mid-2022 as demand expanded, setting the stage for fuel markets to remain very tight until at least mid-decade, International Energy Forum and S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) research showed.
The fall in capacity comes as oil demand rose by 5.6 million bpd over the same period, the report released on Tuesday said.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 17:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 17:57 | Report Abuse

what a boring rhetoric..

are you in late 60s or 70s?

Posted by anthonytkh > Sep 13, 2022 5:55 PM | Report Abuse

A public listed company is not defined by opportunities and circumstances when it comes to its share price. Why are we here? The company’s performance or its share price movements?

Record breaking profits with no real enthusiasm from “investors”. Cash balance reduced, debtors and creditors both increased, liabilities way higher than equity. That’s at least 3 quarters in a row last time I checked

The MTN? Look at my above paragraph…

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-13 18:09 | Report Abuse

Probability, I can be a teenager or a really old dude or even be another Lee Thiam Wah. That’s below the belt from you. And I ain’t a lady that gets sensitive about age questions

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 18:12 | Report Abuse

well if my hunch is right on your age, my hunch on your thought process is also likely to be correct then

i have nothing to learn from your advise... TQ


Posted by anthonytkh > Sep 13, 2022 6:09 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, I can be a teenager or a really old dude or even be another Lee Thiam Wah. That’s below the belt from you. And I ain’t a lady that gets sensitive about age questions

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-13 18:13 | Report Abuse

I never advise

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-13 18:20 | Report Abuse

The Only Constant Is Change.
I can't believe people still use what happen in past 5 to 7 years or 5 months and called it as truth??? LOL

Truth’s been there for 5 to 7 years when it comes to the company. Truth’s been there for the past 5 months when it comes to the share price

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 18:23 | Report Abuse

spot on sslee... great to have you here

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-13 18:23 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:29 |

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Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-13 18:29 | Report Abuse

Facts are based on true accounting as reported. Facts are the share price movements

Shouldn’t HY be over 6 bucks or more after their last QR?

You all wanna agree with Uncle Buffett that wanted to abolish quarterly reports? What would happen to our Bursa if this happened?

Remember the 3 main market participants in Bursa and elsewhere…

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 18:31 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:33 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:35 | Report Abuse

Seems like WB also has Dementia like Pak Lah, when he is chasing more than 50% shares holding in Oxcidental Petroleum???

Cakap tak sama bikin....

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:38 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:40 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:42 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 18:45 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 18:46 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 18:48 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 18:53 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 18:58 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-13 19:05 |

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Posted by niktraderinvestor > 2022-09-13 19:17 | Report Abuse

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 19:18 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 19:20 | Report Abuse

Good for him. At 90 still hoping to gather more wealth....probably pray for better health. Heard him say his legs are giving away. Walking is problem too.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-13 19:39 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 19:43 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 19:45 |

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Posted by JConnor > 2022-09-13 19:48 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Global-Fuel-Market-Will-Remain-Tight-For-Years-To-Come.html

Record volumes of refining capacity have been shut down over the past two years, which will lead to tight global fuel markets that will last at least through the middle of this decade. According to a new report by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global, we can expect high volatility in fuel markets and fuel prices.

Between 2020 and the middle of 2022, as much as 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of gross atmospheric crude distillation capacity closed - a record high number, the report found.

Lower crude distillation capacity and reduced petroleum product exports from Russia and China drove refinery margins to record levels this summer, to a record $35-50 per barrel compared to the typical $10 a barrel, “underscoring the severe bottlenecks in the sector,” said the report from the Riyadh-based IEF and S&P Global.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-13 19:56 | Report Abuse

US June CPI 9.1 % , July CPI 8.5 % … August CPI is predicted 5.5 % …
-----------------
Look like information is leaked, hence the US stock markets are bullish now.

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-13 19:57 | Report Abuse

Say bye bye to ular at 6

UlarSawa

You not bad also mah. 4.20 to 4.90 swing swing in a week. Haiyoh. Correct?



Mikecyc

Haha Today is 4.67 … Ularcacing is who win at the moment ?? Hahahaha

1 hour ago

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-13 19:58 | Report Abuse

Only strong can reach 20 again.

Posted by niktraderinvestor > 2022-09-13 20:16 | Report Abuse

Hahahahahahahaha

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 20:28 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 20:33 | Report Abuse

@JConnor, good sharing...

Posted by JConnor > Sep 13, 2022 7:48 PM | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Global-Fuel-Market-Will-Remain-Tight-For-Years-To-Come.html

The Global Fuel Market Will Remain Tight For Years To Come

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 20:36 | Report Abuse

Sustainability?
...............

what a state of chronic paranoia due to past volatility on earnings of refinery

one shall talk about sustainability of earnings when stocks are trading above PE 20 may be..or the least PE 10

panicking now for a stock that barely moved up from its historic avg low?

refinery stock like HY only needs 13 USD/brl avg refining margin to deliver EPS above RM 1 consistently

now its averaging above 26 USD/brl

and we dont need RM 1 EPS per qtr to justify current price, even 40 cents consistently would do...

there are too many structural changes GLOBALLY that indicates constraints will remain due to shortage in global refining capacity and takes years (more than 5 years to build a refinery and investors are not keen despite high margin currently) unlike gloves for supply to catch up with demand...

its earnings can certainly be volatile, but the mean avg of the crack is expected to be significantly higher than previous years as intermittent shortage due to refinery maintenance, break down etc is high....

as such the odds of margin spiking intermittently is just too high going forward

this especially so considering russian sanction (which is the core of the structural changes that we are basing here)

keyword: sanctions are expected to last years

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 20:40 | Report Abuse

Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis (using lowest possible average crack spread during the period)
.........................

Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 42/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 30/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 42) + (0.07 x 30) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (19.3 + 2.1 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 24.7 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (24.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 594 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 594
= 834 million MYR

PBT = 734 million
PAT = 557 million
EPS = 1.85

Posted by Phoebe > 2022-09-13 21:18 | Report Abuse

Is the fatty sifu still keeping or quietly selling but still ask member to be patient?

Posted by Jokers2020 > 2022-09-13 21:36 | Report Abuse

inflation up 0.1% over react ...manipulation by big fund

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 21:49 | Report Abuse

@MM.

your lay man theory ABSOLUTELY WRONG, as they have hedged with maturities up till 2024

YOU NEED TO IMPROVE YOUR IQ..

9 million barrels of hedged instruments cannot expire within 3 months

if that happens, Q2 would have reported EPS as if its 100% hedged at 12 USD/brl margin but they reported above 20 USD/brl after derivative loss of 400 million!!

1 QTR revenue is 10 million barrels

that should be simple common sense to layman...

.........


@MM simple question to you...

what is the difference between Cash flow hedge reserve and Cost of hedging Reserve...

you do not know IFRS 9...

MM - OBVIOUSLY DO NOT KNOW A SINGLE THING ABOUT OCI...LOL!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-13 21:54 | Report Abuse

Esok how. Ular predict red. Boleh%

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 21:56 | Report Abuse

@Ular, its time people move out from volatile tech stocks to refineries...LOL!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-13 21:57 | Report Abuse

you will be surprised to see tomorrow's crack spread...live data showing refining margin is rising...