Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-24 20:27 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-24 20:31 | Report Abuse

Then please explain the PBT being Negative and the Taxation throws back a Positive 60 million????

For the quarter, PetronM might not need to do any Accurals as Receipts are not in-coming from Profits yet.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-24 20:41 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-24 20:46 |

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Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-24 20:47 | Report Abuse

know what just say don't know la..............lurker and probability...........


all your calculations turn to rubbish.

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-24 20:48 | Report Abuse

qqq3333 password tak bolih pakai

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-24 20:50 | Report Abuse

even analyst says they don't cover HY Petron because they don't want to be embarrassed.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-24 20:50 |

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Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-24 20:55 |

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Posted by Permutation > 2022-11-24 21:01 | Report Abuse

@ Probability
TQ

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-24 21:07 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-24 21:28 | Report Abuse

Meanwhile, crude premium continued to be expensive countering the improvement in regional product cracks resulting in gross loss.

Most likely Petronm need to pay a crude premium as their refinery was designed for Tapis crude. Hope HRC crude will be cheaper.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-24 21:50 | Report Abuse

HRC expenses for Q2 2022
RM'000
Manufacturing expenses (43,293)
Administrative expenses (31,993)
Depreciation and amortisation (26,555)
Finance cost (10,506)

Is that expensive for volume of 10+ million barrels?

Posted by probability > 2022-11-24 22:11 | Report Abuse

HY has an inventory 3.5 million barrels

As worst case scenario, if you would like to consider inventory loss at 10 USD/brl, the loss will be:

= 3.5 million barrels x 10 USD/brl x 4.5 RM/USD
= 157 million

You can even add the loss above on below if you wish, you will still obtain an EPS of 1.20




Posted by probability > Nov 24, 2022 6:57 PM | Report Abuse X

simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................

Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%

Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....

PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........

The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).

HY also hedges their inventory to protect themself from any changes to oil price. This can be seen by their Q1 results which was not helped by the rise in Crude oil price.

This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-11-24 23:15 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:22 | Report Abuse

PetronM eps 68 to 12 drop 82%
HY eps 222 if drop 82% = ???

Provided if is like this. Hope not that bad lah. Ada orang TP eps rm2.00 tapi takda keluar promote lagi leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:26 | Report Abuse

Oil Specialist sudah lower down the EPS with inventory loss pun added into the calculation. Why like this last few days pun can chg TP one leh. No more insist like b4 leh. How about sifu OTB and students punya TP takda revise kah. Still remain the old TP kah. Anyway cannot change once inside the competition liao leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:26 | Report Abuse

Berapa kali dah beritahu??? Operasi bisnes HY tak sesama dengan PetronM....tak faham lagi????

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:28 | Report Abuse

Lu masih mau dengar orang yang bolih bagi 3 TP dalam satu hari ke?? Bagi 3 EPS dalam satu hari??? Tak masuk akal lah..!!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:29 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:30 | Report Abuse

Ya, betul lu cakap dan highlight yang memang sukar difahami. Bagaimana Inventori yang belum di jual dikira sama masuk dlm P&L?????

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:30 | Report Abuse

Ya lah. Tak faham later why HY price also follow PetronM later. Haiyoh. Correct?


BobAxelrod

Berapa kali dah beritahu??? Operasi bisnes HY tak sesama dengan PetronM....tak faham lagi????

2 minutes ago

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-25 08:32 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:33 | Report Abuse

Better or not to take cover first leh. No garanti you cakap one will materialise also leh. When you are face selling pressure as many also look at PetronM as a guide for HY leh. You decide yourself lah. Itu your money lah. Not ular money leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:34 | Report Abuse

Investor HY tak kan buat keputusan parihal QR PetronM. Mereka lain cara operasi bisnes. Keuntungan pun dari cara lain.

HY akan kekal harga pada masa ni, lagi pun Q3 dikeluarkan dlm masa yang singkat lagi.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-25 08:34 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:35 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:36 | Report Abuse

Tikong popi tak pegang HY dan PetronM lagi. Cuma c24.........

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:38 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:38 | Report Abuse

Jikalau PetronM jatuh banyak, suka beli balik dan pegang jangka panjang, lama sikit.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:41 | Report Abuse

When you talk about unity gorment. Want to unite the rakyat. But withou PN in the equation mana ada Unity lah. The big chunk of malay vote are in PN hand lah. Kaki kong kaki song only leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-25 08:45 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 08:45 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:50 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-25 08:52 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:53 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 08:55 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-25 08:59 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 09:01 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-25 09:02 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 09:03 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 09:05 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 09:07 |

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Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-25 09:10 | Report Abuse

From day one I say u want to speculate speculate but don't see results. Reminder

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-25 09:11 | Report Abuse

With gross loss at petron, this Hy profit cannot be good

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-25 09:11 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh apa ni. Unity gorment pun takda help ular punya ctrs leh. Arini satu naik 1/2 sen satu takda naik pun. Pun macam takda power leh. Kena tunggu lagi ni. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-25 09:19 | Report Abuse

Ular Rotational play....wait for rotational play but not hy

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-25 09:20 | Report Abuse

Anwar tells pn, door still open for pn.....I think it's just silly

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-25 09:20 | Report Abuse

With pn it's just too messy, dap no need MP?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-25 09:21 | Report Abuse

Tak nampak PetronM ada masalah pun? Cuma 43 lots. Harga pun tak berapa merosot......

HY masih kekal dekat 4.60.......Q3 harap keluar hari ni.