PE 44 is a small hurdle when profits are announced. its timber prices. timber is one of the few commodities whose price is up....must be the floodings and the Ninos.
RM 2.70 soon, will back to histrorical high same as TA ANN, WTK, Subur .. If RM2.70, Jtiasa CD=2.70-1.80 /2= RM 0.45...that why people keep buying warrant
Peter Lynch said you cannot use P/E to value cyclical stocks.
Example: If you sell winter clothes in winter your profits accelerate. So you have low P/E. But stocks are expensive because business is good. Actually time to sell shares into strength.
In summer winter clothes sale fizzles out. So?
You got high P/E mah!
People sold down the shares as a result since little or no profit.
You should do the reverse.
In View of Returning Winter
You Should Buy Ahead of Time!!
So EL NINO WILL POWER UP THE PRICE OF PALM OIL IN NEAR FUTURE.
When profits increase P/E contracts.
Mr Market will then turn euphoric & Chase Hot Plantation Stocks.
By then it will be unwise to chase hot stocks.
That's why we should be greedy when others are fearful. And to be fearful when others are greedily buying.
Since more than 70% of the market still not bullish on Palm Oil stocks it is still safe to buy.
I have looked at oil palm charts and lumber charts. If people are buying Taan and Jtiasa it is for their timber play 2016, not oil palm play. Soya, oil palm, crude oil are all down there. There is no catalyst for oil palm stocks. , but why people suddenly buy Jtiasa on first day of 2016? I think these are asset allocators, somehow, they didn't want them reflected in 2015 but want them for 2016..
what ever the case, recent buyers are big boys and stock is undergoing profit taking...I think it will hold at this level and reach $ 2.5 some times this year.
with the forex earnings from timber, and timber at multi year high in US$, the earnings surprise is on the up side....
it is a timber play...
the oil palm part not so transparent. With the recent haze, who can tell me how much they harvested? and how much is production affected by haze? can the trees give good yield when no sun?
I have no idea, I can only follow where there is big money.
Last time during the Great Depression in USA from 1929 to 1939 Milk prices fell below production cost. The cost to milk the cow and transport milk to the market cannot recover even the cost of production.
So selling milk then was a losing business. What did they?
They just poured away the milk to reduce supply in order that milk prices should rise above production cost.
So it doesn't matter if JTiasa harvest less fruits if El Nino can double the prices.
Losing 10% to 20% fruits but getting a 100% increase in price.
Crude oil down. Soy oil down. Why should palm oil be up?
You cannot use crude oil as food.
As for soy oil it is always more expensive than palm oil. So especially during bad times people in China, India and the world over will opt for cheaper palm oil.
Right now El Nino already devastated many countries' soy oil crops. Scarcity will push up both palm and soy oil prcies in tandem
but what you say is not reflected in oil palm futures. Futures prices are still near recent lows. Timber futures different. Lumber prices in US$ are doing very well.
El Nino...El Nino causes haze and dry spell in South East Asia...no water , no sun, I thought the yield will be low and prices high. But price not high. ..what? India and China not eating cooking oil? funny
El Nino causes floods in the Americas...still soya prices are still down there. They just follow all commodities down..
even with all these doubts, I still put my money in Jtiasa and Taan and follow my instincts.
Go and get a copy of Edge. El Nino will affect J Tiasa FFB output. Only stupid i3 forumers will buy when research houses sell. Even KYY dare not buy now.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tamarindo
1,008 posts
Posted by tamarindo > 2016-01-07 15:31 | Report Abuse
no u cant. the mkt is pushing up again..