US not worried of low crude oil price as they r d nett importer besides low price is very good for consumer spending hence they r going to increse interest rates twice this yr.Dont forget US is controlling low crude to crash Russia n China.Mkt forces shd control d stock mkt but in China controlled by d Capitalist who shd go for democracy rule.China is still an infant compared to US, they r dying.As for Dow. US will use all d oportunities to push mkt "up n down" for their own gain.Funds come into the country as they like, later they crash r mkt n run n we get caught...???
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 15, 2016.
Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd (
Valuation: 1.40, Fundamental: 0.30) (Jan 14, RM1.62) Maintain buy with a higher fair value (FV) of RM2.18: We maintain “buy” on Jaya Tiasa, with a higher FV of RM2.18 per share, based on an unchanged financial year ending June 30, 2016 (FY16F) (forecast) price-earnings ratio (PER) of 25 times, but with a higher earnings per share (EPS) of 8.7 sen. This is three notches below its 10-year forward PER of 28 times. We have raised our FY16F earnings by about 11%, mainly to account for a higher crude palm oil price assumption at RM2,250 per tonne versus RM2,150 per tonne previously. We have also tweaked FY17F earnings downwards by 8% due to a revision in the foreign exchange rate from RM4 to RM3.85 to the US dollar. At current prices, Jaya Tiasa’s implied enterprise value (EV)/planted hectarage is at RM20,000 versus Ta Ann Holdings Bhd (
Valuation: 2.00, Fundamental: 2.30)’s RM26,000 — a discount of 21%. At our target prices, Jaya Tiasa’s implied EV/planted hectarage is at RM27,000 versus Ta Ann’s RM32,000 — a discount of 15%. Both compare favourably to the current implied EV/planted hectarage range of RM50,000 to RM80,000 for mid-cap plantation companies. The big caps’ implied EV/planted hectarage is well over RM100,000. The market EV/hectarage for brownfield land bank in Sabah and Sarawak is reportedly between RM62,000 and RM68,000. Jaya Tiasa’s fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield is on a recovery path after achieving only 12.5 tonnes per mature hectare for FY15, due to a labour shortage that led to the neglect of about 10,000ha of planted areas. It is on track to meeting our FFB production projection of 900,000 tonnes for FY16F (+22% year-on-year [y-o-y] at 14.7 tonnes yield). For FY17F, we are projecting a 19% y-o-y growth to over one million tonnes (at 16.6 tonnes yield) and 12% increase in FY18F. Recall that Jaya Tiasa recently announced that it will discontinue planting on its remaining plantation land bank of 0.4% or about 280ha of its estimated plantable area of 69,873ha, after December 2015. This means the end of the group’s palm oil capital expenditure cycle, which will be positive for cash flows. Apart from its previously neglected areas, the productive areas are sizeable at about 60,000ha. Notwithstanding the stock having risen 40% since our upgrade on Nov 27, 2015, we reiterate that it continues to be a cheap entry into the palm oil sector. It is an FFB recovery play, aided by the weak ringgit and strong log export prices. — AmInvestment Bank, Jan 14
last friday all panic selling, not only jtiasa-cd dropped but majority counters also dropped. Jtiasa is a good fa stock and export counter .. once the selling pressure is over, it will go back up again .no worries
No one knows whether JTiasa will go up or down next week.
But there is one vital indicator you must watch.
CPO prices!
If CPO Prices maintain above Rm2,400 a ton Jtiasa will show higher profits in coming quarters. If Mr Market sell in ignorance - just buy up Jtiasa shares against what people might do.
calvintaneng , i don;t think so CPO mothing to do with Jtiasa, Jtiasa early jan suddenly shoot up got 2 reason 1) RM depreciate , most of timber export to Japan ,benefit Jtiasa 2) sarawak goung to Election , this 2 major things attarct investor eye
Indonesia Dec palm oil output falls to nine-month low -Reuters survey
* Indonesia's Dec CPO output seen at 2.457 mln T * Indonesia CPO exports seen at 2.675 mln T for Dec
By Michael Taylor JAKARTA, Jan 18 Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output slipped to a nine-month low in December, a Reuters survey showed, as Southeast Asia's monsoon season curtailed operations in the world's two biggest producers of the edible oil. Indonesia's CPO output in December was 2.457 million tonnes, down 12 percent from 2.8 million tonnes in November and the lowest since March, according to the median estimate in a survey of three industry officials and one plantation company. Falling output and rising exports may support benchmark palm prices, which climbed nearly 10 percent in 2015 and are currently trading near 2,480 ringgit ($564) a tonne.
"Typically, December production will come off because it is a low production month," said plantations analyst Ivy Ng at CIMB Research. "It is quite similar to what Malaysia has experienced." Last week, data from rival palm grower Malaysia showed that CPO output there fell by 15 percent in December from the previous month. Southeast Asia's peak palm oil output usually runs over August to September, with production in the world's top producer Indonesia and No.2 producer Malaysia typically easing as the region heads into its wet season in November. The Reuters survey pegged Indonesia's CPO exports for December at 2.675 million tonnes, up 28 percent from November and highest since at least August 2014, when the survey began. Chinese buying ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday may have boosted palm buying in December, said Ng, adding that many Indonesian sellers have been aggressive in selling palm products at a discount to Malaysia in recent weeks. According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at 2.425 million tonnes in December, a level not seen since February and down from 2.950 million tonnes in November. Indonesia's domestic consumption of the tropical oil was estimated in a range between 550,000 tonnes and 767,000 tonnes. The latest monthly data published by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed November exports at 2.39 million tonnes. GAPKI data for December is yet to be released.
The Reuters survey for December comprises contributions from GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association and Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm oil companies. Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results and GAPKI palm and palm kernel oil export data for 2014/15 (in million tonnes).
Month Output Exports Inventories GAPKI export data
December 2.457 2.675 2.425 --- November 2.800 2.093 2.950 2.39 October 3.010 2.213 3.025 2.61 September 3.100 2.235 3.050 2.34 August 3.198 1.885 3.392 2.10 July 2.856 1.920 3.200 2.09 June 2.800 2.400 3.046 2.27 May 2.774 2.150 2.540 2.22 April 2.662 2.046 2.602 2.25 March 2.397 1.800 2.667 2.03 February 2.049 1.750 2.425 1.79 January 2.056 1.658 2.413 1.81 ---------------------------------------------------- December 2.165 1.837 2.325 1.97 November 2.306 2.100 2.225 2.26 October 2.385 1.820 2.378 2.47 September 2.675 1.750 2.500 1.70 August 2.750 1.720 2.575 1.72
($1 = 4.3980 ringgit)
(Reporting by Michael Taylor; Editing by Tom Hogue)
Asia gains as China shares surge on stimulus hopes. Asian shares were mostly higher on Tuesday as Shanghai stocks surged after data pointing to slower Chinese economic growth fanned stimulus hopes. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0UX00N
China Shares Rally as Beijing Reports GDP Growth at 6.9% for 2015. China shares turned higher Tuesday, as investors weighed the likelihood of further stimulus from Beijing following data that the economy grew at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century. The Shanghai Composite Index traded up 1.6%, after flitting near the flat line. http://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-stocks-may-take-a-pause-from-recent-turbulence-1453158586
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
IVAN2222
2,094 posts
Posted by IVAN2222 > 2016-01-15 15:24 | Report Abuse
BUT I HOPE THIS JAYA GOT MIRACLE