NTPM’s net profit jumped by nearly 10 times to RM29.68mil in its third quarter ended Jan 31, 2021, from RM3.07mil a year ago, on lower material costs, higher average selling price, and a gain on disposal of a subsidiary.
NTPM back on strong footing, thanks to Vietnam operations TheStar Tue, Mar 23, 2021 10:10am - 4 minutes ago
Analysts believe NTPM is poised for an earnings upcycle.
KUALA LUMPUR: The share price retracement in NTPM Holdings Bhd may have been overdone as analysts believe its current valuation does not reflect the company’s improved fundamentals.
The stock closed at 62.5 sen yesterday, 26.5% down from its 52-week peak of 85 sen in December, despite the impressive boost to its net profit for the nine months ended Jan 31,2021.
Its core net profit of RM45.5mil for the nine months was up roughly 20 times year-on-year (y-o-y). The counter has been on the downtrend since mid-December even as it posted steady earnings, buoyed by lower raw material prices.
Notably, the markets seem to be ignoring the fact that the company is in a better position today with a stronger balance sheet. NTPM’s net gearing has moderated to 0.7 times from 0.96 times in financial year 2020 (FY20).
Note that losses from its Vietnam operation – which has dragged the group down with its losses from FY18-FY20 – have also narrowed significantly.
Analysts believe NTPM is poised for an earnings upcycle. While there may be concerns about the sharp surge in raw material prices since late 2020, which could lead to margin pressure, the company has introduced a price increase, which will take effect from May onwards, to mitigate the impact.
Management noted that any further rise from current pulp prices will be seen as a spike, with industry players putting up resistance – as a further rise would lead to operation losses.
That said, RHB Research believes NTPM is in a strong position to withstand the headwinds, given its market leadership in Malaysia.
The company has also made the effort to rationalise its business to ensure that it is in a stronger position as consumer markets pick up.
It completed the disposal of its toilet rolls and tissue manufacturing subsidiary for RM27.5mil last November as the firm has continuously incurred losses with little prospects of a turnaround in the near future.
Given the company’s stronger footing, the retracement in NTPM’s share price may have been excessive.
RHB Research, for one, believes the current valuation has priced in the downside risks. The research house has a “buy” recommendation on NTPM with a revised target price of 92 sen.
“Its current valuation (below five-year mean) should propel investors to refocus on the company’s fundamental improvements. This includes the sustainable Vietnam operation turnaround, demand recovery from the hospitality segment and contributions from new capacity, ” said RHB in a report.
Downside risks to its recommendation include a sharp rise in input costs and a later-than-expected turnaround in the Vietnam operation.
The company’s sales for the nine-month period declined marginally by 2.7% y-o-y to RM561.1mil, mainly due to the drop in tissue paper sales (-6.1%) as the away-from-home or hospitality segment was severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
It depends. If the manufacturer can pass on the high material cost to the consumer, then profit level could be maintained otherwise profit will drop. It all depends on market forces and whether there is any alternative to toilet paper of paper.
I guess many investors worried about the increase in pulp price will affect their profit. But as smart businessmen, they will transfer the rise of raw material cost to end-user as their other competitors will do the same, right?
Excerpt some main point from the interview of NTPM group chairman and managing director Lee See Jin by STAR reporter David Tan: 1. NTPM is aiming to increase their productivity by 20% annually to cater to the growth of demand globally 2. NTPM already secured orders from NEW customers in the US, UK, and Australia. 3.The new value products we plan to add will cushion us against the impact of higher production cost 4.Increasing the Ho Chin Minh City plant tissue output would help the company break even in Vietnam in FY22 5. Huge potential in the Vietnam market, tissue paper consumption per capita in Vietnam was growing at 5-10% per annum. 6. Our 9-months PAT (58mil) is already better than the entire FY20(8.9mil). Full report please read today STAR.
Buying a stock is buying a company's future, esp. their profitability in the future. One of the measures is to see the demand for their core product in the future. According to Mordor Intelligence in its report "Tissue Paper Market-Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact, and Forecast(2021-2026)", the global tissue paper market is expected to grow at 6.45% annually from 2021 to 2026.
NTPM was pressed down by big shark to force small fish run away on last Wednesday. Thursday price bound back. Friday price stay above 0.60 support. Chart is looking good and should expecting price move upward. Let hope something good to be happened on next week
Under the deep of the pandemic, toilet paper is still a hot buying item. This counter is a leading brand company in Malaysia and Singapore. The increase of paper pulp price gradually will be transferred to the end-users. Waiting for this company to declare a good dividend...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cutie
1,690 posts
Posted by cutie > 2021-03-22 13:44 | Report Abuse
Half day show