Hi AngelVi, I am still around. Nothing exciting to share, so I did not mention anything for now. Do take a look at the palm oil sector.. TSH is my pick. Shortage of world edible oil is real. India, world largest buyer of Palm oil is recovering from 80k a day new Covid cases to 40k now. Its opening up and consumption to follow. China record buying of soy to revive the pig and poultry industry after recent African swine outbreak in August. Brazil world largest soy produce experiencing super dry weather delaying Nov planting season.. All these factors are pushing palm oil to a new high and expected to stay at this level as more countries try to open up. Palm oil stocks will record very good results this month. Actual value still not reflected in most counters. Its time to focus on recovery of the pandemic. Stocks like consumer items, transportation such as Maybulk and palm oil are my pick. JAG is another good one as they recycle electronic waste and extracting palladium, gold and copper. After restructuring 4 to 1, good Balance sheet after the August Private Placement, it should do well in this coming results .
In a way, the dry bulk business will stay quiet for now. But the corn and soy from Latin America will be out again in Feb-May. China has record buying on steel in August. And now record buying on soy delivery starting Feb..
U.S. Supply Chain Managers Should Expect Higher Ocean Contract Rates in 2021, Says Drewry
As we move closer to the end of the year, Drewry reaffirms its view that manufacturers and retailers should expect ocean contract freight rates on most routes to increase – not fall – in 2021, following major market changes since the COVID-19 outbreak.
It is too early in the Q4 bid season to reach exact conclusions about 2021 rate changes. However, industry analysts say the signs are obvious in the spot market for ocean transportation that carriers have gained pricing power and are managing ship capacity to their advantage.
Based on the Drewry Container Freight Rate Insight, a service that tracks and provides average spot container freight rates on 700+ lanes globally and analyses market trends, analysts say they can clearly see that 2020 spot rates have exceeded 2019 spot rates by a large margin since March. The Global Freight Rate Index, a weighted average of all-in spot rates on East-West, North-South and intra-regional international routes, reached $2,540/40ft container in September, a 43% increase from September 2019.
“Some routes and regions stand out as benefiting from lower rates, but the vast majority are seeing rates rise – particularly Transpacific Eastbound -, where the increases are worryingly high for shippers and the rates are much more profitable for ocean carriers,” says Philip Damas, director and head of the supply chain advisors practice London-based Drewry.
The stratospheric increases in transpacific spot rates and the current shortage of capacity in Asia have led regulators in China and in the US to signal that they are watching the competition situation closely. China’s Ministry of Transport met most major carriers on 11 September and asked carriers why there were such large increases in transpacific rates and expressed “hope” that they would bring back ship capacity to the market.
In the U.S. the Federal Maritime Commission said on 16 September that it is “actively monitoring for any potential effect on freight rates and transportation service levels, using a variety of sources and markers, including the exhaustive information that parties to a carrier agreement must file with the agency.”
According to Damas, the Transpacific Eastbound route (rates up 180% year-on-year) and the North Europe-to-Asia route (rates up 130% year-on-year) stand out as routes where very high spot rates are likely to pull up contract freight rates in the forthcoming annual tenders.
“In other words, spot rates (now high) and contract rates (now relatively low) will converge – with contract rates on most routes expected to rise in 2021. The current gap between transpacific rates and spot rates is over $2,000/40ft container and intrinsically encourages carriers to minimise their capacity sold under (much lower) contract rates,” says Damas.
Particularly this year, shippers and forwarders should track the development of spot freight rates because they indicate the tightness of the market on some routes, they may be a leading indicator of contract rates, and they could point to future problems of capacity availability if ocean carriers prioritise (higher) spot cargoes vs (lower-rated) less profitable contract cargoes. “Besides the risk of higher ocean rates, the other question on the agenda in 2021 is: which reliable providers should my company use to secure ship capacity?” Damas concluded.
Will the market crash if budget 2021 cannot be passed this coming Thursday (26/10/2020)? These are the 4 possible scenarios:
1. Parliament will be dissolved and a snap election will be called 2. A state of Emergency in the whole country will be declared by YDPA 3. Muhyiddin will resign and YDPA will appoint an interim PM 4. YDPA will appoint a new PM who has majority MPs support. A new budget 2021 also will be tabled by the new appointed PM.
Will the market go down? Will it crash? Take profit now or wait?
where u see macd all time high about to cross? still quite low will go higher. not crossing anytime soon la. u open eyes big2 la. but rsi n mfi really very high la but not maxed yet.
Just watch out if the gap 0.435-0.445 to be filled- the price action seems towards the tendency to fill this gap. Still maintain of TP6: 0.86 in 4 mths time.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Hew Kiong Peng George
336 posts
Posted by Hew Kiong Peng George > 2020-10-07 06:24 | Report Abuse
BDI 2097,maybulk tp 50sen coming weeks