Posted by Colin Gerard Gomez > 2016-11-30 12:44 | Report Abuse

Big question....did mudajaya gurantee the Indian power plants entire borrowings despite owning just 26%...????

Posted by Colin Gerard Gomez > 2016-11-30 12:46 | Report Abuse

Should be under notes to the accounts under contingent liabilites in the annual report. Required by Most accounting standards...definetly in Malaysia

Posted by kuengkucheng > 2016-11-30 12:48 | Report Abuse

it's time management should step out and provide a transparent explanation to shareholders ..the damage has done, how long they want to test the patience

Posted by Colin Gerard Gomez > 2016-11-30 13:02 | Report Abuse

Despite having just 26% equity interest...they could have stood as guarantor for entire borrowings just to clinch the...then "lucrative Indian power plant deal" could have done this because they are the main people involved in the construction having had the. experiance. Also to ensure the clinch the deal

Posted by Colin Gerard Gomez > 2016-11-30 13:09 | Report Abuse

Even with all 4 power plants running...it was estimated that it would contribute rm70 million per annum only..now interest expense already how much per month? Moreover the calculation was based on sale of power long time ago...at what Price? Just my 2cts worth...getting cheaper.

Posted by Colin Gerard Gomez > 2016-11-30 13:15 | Report Abuse

Their indian counterpart RK Powergen Pte Ltd is just a front in my opinion. All hope lies in Mudajaya..does the state government have any responsibility on financial issues of the project overruns?????

Posted by Colin Gerard Gomez > 2016-11-30 13:23 | Report Abuse

Fairfax can buy over fund the completion and wait for returns...like they have done for so many companies in the world...only hope...but at a what Price to shareholders? At least yheres a return and possible bailout for Mudajaya...and perhaps the only way out...my 1ct worth

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 14:14 | Report Abuse

If not Mudapengsan

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 14:24 | Report Abuse

Medium Term Notes (MTN) borrowings of RM240m due soon...

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 14:26 | Report Abuse

Management must come out with the cards on the table....but if they do it could also mean penny stock future....so keep mouth shut?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 14:28 | Report Abuse

Just find out who is the guarantor for the bank borrowings in the JV in India (RKM Powergen) and you will open the pandera's box...I believe.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 14:55 | Report Abuse

Simple maths...RM40 million loss for last 3 months from 26% owned associate...does that mean the Indian counterpart's loss (74% ownership) would be in the region of RM120m for 3rd Q'16?..so the JV...RKM Powergen on the whole reported a loss of RM160m for the 3rd Q'16 quarter...assuming losses do not increase... x 4 quarters = Rm640m per annum from now going forward...if no income from plants???? remember the income estimation by analyst... income from plants max RM70m p.a.

That is not only the sad story...what about the borrowings?? Mudajaya has RM371m in its books...what about the JV's books? How much owing to Indian banks?...Guaranteed by whom? Payment terms? Since RKM Powergen is a private Ltd Co...it is not published...your guess on this RM8 billion spent so far (my crazy guess) is as good as mine. Just my worthless guess work to you guys...I know how u feel...I am 1 of the biggest loser with no comeback in plan.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 15:24 | Report Abuse

I have spent 7 years analysing this company and I still dono so many things!

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 15:25 | Report Abuse

Disclosure is minimal

Posted by kevin5059 > 2016-11-30 15:47 | Report Abuse

Unit 1 power-up which scheduled yesterday was postponed AGAIN. This indian drama really endless!

Posted by cmc850 > 2016-11-30 15:52 | Report Abuse

This counter make me lost 60% of my total saving. Just wonder such a good company now bcm like this, just like our lovely country malaysia, now become almost the worst in asia

Posted by 400523 > 2016-11-30 16:13 | Report Abuse

If shareholders can get Mudapengsan to provide the terms of the joint venture (partnership agreement) and the contract by the India state government for the construction of the plants...then only can 1 get a clearer idea of the company's financial position. Things like profit sharing is known 26% to 74%...but this does not mean everything is at that %. The guarantors for loans granted by banks also could be given by any entity/entities and not necessary in that same percentage. Now the India state government must have also provided finance to build RM5 billion project (cost estimated at the beginning when contract awarded was announced)...but looking at the loss of the associate...the portion of loans by RKM Powergen must also be huge.

Posted by kkteng70 > 2016-11-30 16:22 | Report Abuse

obviously, someone is lying... if you notice since last year. they keep delaying the power plant project at india without giving any VALID reason ? once the power plant start generate revenue here it come the depreciation cost, it is a huge figure!! also they comment about getting local project !! can any one tell me, what is the project did they get award ? of course must with generating revernue project !!

Posted by cmc850 > 2016-11-30 16:28 | Report Abuse

More and more speechless with this counter

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-11-30 18:42 | Report Abuse

1kw earn 10 sen. 360MV = rm 36000/hour. 1mth=25mil. 1year = 300mil for unit 1 only. So don't sell until all the 4 units fire up, handsome reward is waiting ahead.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-11-30 18:47 | Report Abuse

When everyone scare, you have good chance to buy cheap. Canada insurer still keep their share not because they are stupid but they are good in calculation and patience.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-11-30 19:45 | Report Abuse

mudajya can get net profit 70mil to 80mil per annum already deduct interest and depreciation. I think big sharks are purposely press down share price so they can make profit from ikan bilis hard earn money.

Posted by charles pang kah keet > 2016-11-30 21:50 | Report Abuse

hope tomrrow mudajaya will rebound back little bit, in long term, the mudajaya will improve the result financing.

Posted by charles pang kah keet > 2016-11-30 21:51 | Report Abuse

good luck to mudajaya group, god bless.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-11-30 22:37 | Report Abuse

Although the machine is rated at 360MW each, there is no way they are going to operate the machine at 360MW because of the internal use for the power plant and the supply will be according to the demand. If the demand is low they have to match the demand. Moreover the machines cannot operate throughout the whole year. There will be maintenance and downtime and this depends to the technology they are using. Primitive technology and maintenance method will result in longer downtime. So with all that in mind the value of 70 to 80 mil as income maybe possible but is it sufficient to cover up the loans? There are several questions the investors would want to know before deciding to buy or hold the stakes. At what stage of commissioning the project is at now and what is the major cause for the delay? Is there any design issues, financial issue or political issue that hinder the commissioning and completion? How is the company going to mitigate the identified issue? What about the operational and maintenance cost? Where is the source of coal supply for the plant from and what is the agreement with the coal mine? Are the coal price fixed? What is the ROI for this project? I suppose the cost has overrun due to the delays and how will the company turnaround this situation? Is it still possible to turnaround? These are the questions investors would want to know.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-11-30 23:25 | Report Abuse

if everything's clear, big sharks where got chance to buy cheap? Any power plant in India or in the world bankrupt?

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 00:03 | Report Abuse

No fish in clear water. How to catch ikan bilis? Power plant is not built for main-main because it involves billions of money. No risk no gain.

Posted by kuengkucheng > 2016-12-01 00:04 | Report Abuse

with so many questions, anyone contacted investor relation?

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 00:12 | Report Abuse

When everything is clear, you will never get this price forever.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 00:17 | Report Abuse

The chances of power plant bankrupt is almost zero. So be happy, don't worry too much.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 09:02 | Report Abuse

I agree the power plants are almost complete and will be used sooner or later. However, to exacerbate the situation, I believe there is currently, an oversupply of power in the state of Chartisgarh. To construct power lines to other states is unfeasible. Additionally, more funding is required to complete the plants. Approval to fire-up is another huge issue. The banks must be holding the trigger right now as they can't bear waiting anymore I believe. They have depositors rights to care for and are not businessmen. They might just go ahead with liquidation and leave it to the auctioneers as "business as usual". Mudajaya must be frantically looking for a buyer right now before the banks react. Liquidation will take many years....hope I am absolutely wrong! Only the state government of India can help in this situation because they are the ones who awarded this contract but it remains to be seen if the clauses in the contract were well thought of.

My 0 cents worth

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 09:30 | Report Abuse

Losses on the India Power Plants are almost certain ..in my opinion...it is only the question of how much financial impact is there on Mudajaya. If they stand as guarantor for the JV..(.which is likely even though it is not stated in the notes to the audited accounts...in my opinion) it will be in dire straits to say the least. The power plant assets make up almost 67% of all assets of Mudajaya. Hope someone from the management team can correct me if I am wrong...please. On the hopeful side, maybe the banks or the state government can continue to fund the project until completion and in that case limit the losses to Mudajaya.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 10:36 | Report Abuse

Moreover...we assume the approvals for the plants were held-up because of corruption in India...maybe it was a clear case of engineering errors that lead to the delays until now...who knows. After all, it is in India's favor if the power plants are approved for operation years ago when they needed power badly.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-01 11:26 | Report Abuse

The questions that I raise are genuine questions that any investors would ask. Even the banks would ask the same before sanctioning a loan. The power plant will not go bankrupt but if the ROI is not feasible with the present situation then the consequences will be negative. The important thing is on what ground did the bank sanction the loan for this project? What is the agreement between the bank and the company? Will there be higher interest charged if the plant fail to start as per the COD? These sort of things will affect the profit of the company. The longer they delay, the smaller the profit which makes this whole project unsuccessful and unattractive.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 11:27 | Report Abuse

This not end of the world. Power plant value always there, now is time to negotiate electricity selling price half sen by half sen because half sen means 10mil per annum for unit 1 only. Happy go lucky and India movie "3 idiots" said everything is well then everything will be going well. Don't always scare yourself and make you lose money.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 11:44 | Report Abuse

Smaller profit means no lose money, at least can get back the money invested in RKM. so mudajya share price at least worth RM1.50. Am I right?

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-01 11:51 | Report Abuse

Even the small profit will vanish if they delay the operation of the plant. The main question for Mudajaya stands, When are they going to commission the plant? I hope the price moves up too.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-01 12:43 | Report Abuse

Alfonso, are you accumulating? The price is climbing up.

Posted by johnny cash > 2016-12-01 14:29 | Report Abuse

FROM CIMB RESEARCH


Mudajaya Group

Is there a silver lining?

■ Annualised 9M16 core net loss was higher than our forecasted full-year net loss.
Losses sustainable into 4Q16.
■ Domestic operations anchored by RM1.3bn order book, but losses worsened.
■ Overseas operations deteriorated via higher associate losses. Delay risks remain.
■ Share price has languished YTD but job flows may be the only silver lining.
■ Downgrade to Reduce due to concerns on earnings prospects.

Associate losses smears 9M16 results
Mudajaya’s annualised 9M16 core net loss of RM122m was deeper than our forecasted
core net loss of RM63.5m for the full year. The key deviation came from higher
associate and construction losses. Flattish earnings from the property development
division were unsurprising given the current market conditions. Stripping out overseas
contribution from the overall operations, the group’s domestic operations were likely
dragged down by construction cost overruns.
RM1.3bn order book = 2.3x revenue cover
The bright spot in 9M16 was the 41% yoy growth in construction revenue on the back of
an RM1.3bn outstanding order book, which included the RM1.3bn Pan Borneo Sarawak
package to the Musyati-Mudajaya JV. Construction operating losses, however, widened
further yoy in 9M16. We suspect this was due to the impact of higher steel cost which
was not fully passed through.
Sustained delay risks for India ops
Associate losses widened to RM100m (26% stake) in 9M16, due to the depreciation and
finance cost (no longer capitalised in the JV’s balance sheet) relating to two of the four
1,440MW coal-fired power generating units at its power plant in Chhattisgarh, India. In
view of the delay in the new tariff approval under the revised power purchase agreement
(PPA), power sales looks likely to kick off in 2017 rather than in 4Q16. We slash our
FY16F-18F EPS, largely to account for the higher associate and construction losses.
What could emerge as a silver lining
The stock depreciated 32% in the past 12 months. What could emerge as a silver lining
is better success rate for its tender book, which comprises an MRT 2 package, new
building jobs, various road projects in Penang, potential new domestic solar farm
venture, and potential variation order (VO) claims for its existing contract in Petronas’s
refinery and petrochemical integrated development project (RAPID). Based on our blue
skies scenario estimate, it could secure up to RM800m in new jobs in the medium term.
Downgrade to Reduce.
Due to sustained earnings and delay risks, our FY17-18 net profit forecasts could see
further downside. We roll over our valuation to end-2018 and impute into our RNAV the
prevailing value of its associate stake (replacing the estimated DCF value that was
based on the former PPA). Our target price decreases as we widen the discount to
RNAV from 50% to 60%. Downgrade to Reduce (from Hold). Upside risk to our call is
larger than expected order book prospects.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 14:44 | Report Abuse

Dumb analyst..cost me so much money! It is so easy to see that more than 65% of all Mudajaya's assets are screwed up in India and they talk about silver lining...with construction contract gains! penny wise pound foolish!

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 14:55 | Report Abuse

According to cimb report, new tariff approval is delayed not the power plant got problems. So everything is clear now, the only question is how much profit contribute by RKM. I think no power plant will selling at price below 15sen per kw. So we can see some profit from India next financial year. So this is the last call for the last train to Busan.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 15:14 | Report Abuse

Learn from Fairfax, buy more when the price is cheap. I think Fairfax average price is more than RM1. This company is looking for long term profit and patience enough to wait for handsome reward.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 15:26 | Report Abuse

Just in case some of you did not read this. No more coverage from Public Research due to "limited management access"

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 15:26 | Report Abuse

Don't jump from the train or boat, buy ticket quickly before too.late. Target price is RM1.5 for end of 2017 and RM2 for2018.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 15:35 | Report Abuse

Almost all power plants become fat cat, none of them bankrupt. In worst case, mudajya can get back invested money plus moderate profit margin and moderate fat cat.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 15:51 | Report Abuse

So now shareholders have enough queries to ask the management come next AGM (if the banks don't trow in the spanner before that date - RM240m MTN due very soon). 1. Total Financial cost of the plants so far. 2. Overruns - Who bears the overruns does the Chartisgarh state (the contract issuer) support financially 3. Bank borrowings - in total and who guaranteed it. 4. Principal and interest repayment terms. 5. Coal supply - renegotiated at what price - sufficient to run the 4 plants? 7. Sale of Power tariff - income p.a. sufficient to cover interest and principal payments? 8. How much more funding to complete plants 3 & 4 and how to get the funds. In my opinion, only if there is sufficient financial backing from the Indian state authorities or if Fairfax decide to buy over cheap to protect its 15% ownership....the crocs (banks) will take over.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 15:53 | Report Abuse

Good luck and bye as I realise that some of you might not want my comments and thoughts anymore.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-01 15:57 | Report Abuse

As a investor, we should not rely merely on an analyst report. Why cimb analyst can provide clear Information about the India plant condition while others can't ? Cool eye said uncovering gems in undervalued market can bring you huge profits. If you wait until analyst recommend to you which counter is good, the profit you gain is limited because too late already.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-01 17:10 | Report Abuse

Parting shot...538.4m shares in market @ 0.77 = RM414.6 million. Value of Mudajaya's total shares in market (market cap) compared to Net tangible assets value of RM969.12m (almost RM1 billion) as at 3rd quarter'16. What a discount...any takers...perhaps Fairfax? 50 % discount on its net asset value.

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-01 18:11 | Report Abuse

Fat f u c k.