Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-04 23:24 | Report Abuse

You can go to Google Search for "PPA RKM POWERGEN ".

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-04 23:40 | Report Abuse

Delay in approval of cost plus tarrif under revised PPA probably means CHHATTIGARH state government because of power over supply. Anyway nobody know unit 1 already starts fire up or not.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-05 00:55 | Report Abuse

RM1 bil is impossible to achieve per machine. Assuming the machine is operating at 80% its capacity and minus 10% for internal use and other losses, the machine would be able to supply 70% of 350MW which is about 245MW. The demand must be there and 70% is a fair assumption. This value is taken assuming that the state is hungry for power. Now another assumption is how long the machine will operate. I will assume the machine is operating for 10 months for 24 hours a day. 65 days is allocated for the maintenance and other unplanned outages. Therefore the total estimated revenue is 245000kW x 24H x 300Day x RM0.33 = RM582.12mil. This is assuming power is purchased at Rs. 5 which is the highest value i think the state utility can offer. Now how about the coal supply and other operational cost? If the company is making 30% profit then the profit per machine is RM174.636mil. This is the max profit i can think of. Mudajaya has 26% share hence the profit will be RM45.405mil per machine. Therefore if all 4 machines are running and the state is hungry for power and is able to give Rs.5/kWH then Mudajaya will be earning approx. RM160mil annually max from this plant. I maybe wrong but anyone with both technical and financial background in power industry can correct me. The total project cost as per the ICRA is Rs. 8981 crore which is about RM5.88bil. Now see the figures, it is mind blowing and simple math is insufficient to prove that the company will benefit from this project. The more they delay, the more cost will incur and will result in crippling profit. My worry started when the company started delaying their commissioning because from the ICRA report the overall cost for the power plant was Rs. 6654 crore which is about RM4.36bil. The cost has increased as much as RM1.52bil or about 34%. For those who are not familiar, it cost about RM6.5bil to construct a new 1000MW state of the art super critical coal fired power plant. Look at Tanjung Bin project. It is one of Mudajaya's project. I hope some good news will be out soon to salvage the situation.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 08:36 | Report Abuse

Write a comment..Don't forget RKM can running Unit1 n 2 to fulfill the 350MV requirements by UTTAR PRADESH. The actual tariff is Rs5.088 = rm0.332. UTTAR PRADESH state even asked RKM to supply power earlier than 30Oct2016 and PPA stated they wanted to purchase 350MV no matter how RKM generate it. The PPA also stated RKM can provide more than 350MV at peak season as per request by UTTAR PRADESH. so rm1bil income per annum is not a problem. The PPA is available online, Pls read and study it carefully.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-05 09:17 | Report Abuse

I am not debating but stating the best possible thing that can happen if all four machines are operating. If as per PPA Unit 1 and 2 combined together can generate 350MW which is far less than my estimate earlier which simply means that the profit is slimming down. I am very worried as an investor. 30 Oct 2016 has passed and until now there is no news on the successful commissioning of the plant. The tariff can be revised again.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-05 09:46 | Report Abuse

My advice is get the latest ICRA report on RKM Powergen's borrowing's rating. They are professionals and i of the best in the world. They will be provided with all the Joint venture's facts so as to give a clear picture of the financial situation and repayment capability....same like RAM Malaysia for Malaysian borrowers. If it's upgraded from "D" the all is fine.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 10:19 | Report Abuse

I am waiting India CEA monthly generation report for November.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 10:49 | Report Abuse

November report is available for CEA internal use now. Later on they will release it for public reference.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 15:49 | Report Abuse

bought another 200lots to average up.

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-05 16:07 | Report Abuse

Up long way.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 16:10 | Report Abuse

Nov. Generation report not release yet. October report shows that program for RKM POWERGEN is 2000MV for the period Oct-3016 to Mar-2017.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 16:16 | Report Abuse

Wrong typing . October 2016 to March 2017.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-05 16:25 | Report Abuse

If Nov. confirmed production. I will average up another 500 lots immediately. Totally 1000lots is enough for me to earn another car.

Posted by johnny cash > 2016-12-07 00:20 | Report Abuse

SINCE THIS COMPANY HAD AN ISSUE WITH SC IN THE PAST, AT INTERVALS SC-security commission, SHOULD ENTER AGAIN, TO DO A GENERAL COMPLETE AUDIT, BUT OUR SC IS FOND OF SLEEPING

Posted by johnny cash > 2016-12-07 00:22 | Report Abuse

This must be done, only SC, only can OPEN UP, their tight shut lips

Posted by johnny cash > 2016-12-07 00:28 | Report Abuse

What we are worried now is, this company are not disclosing things, which investors should know..usually when companies comes to distress financial situation, they will tend to hide many things

Posted by dosn > 2016-12-07 11:33 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research sees signs of order book recovery for Mudajaya Group but not net profit recovery as yet after it accepted a RM810mil road construction project on Penang island.

The infrastructure company had accepted a letter of award from Consortium Zenith BUCG for package 2 of Penang major roads and Third Link project. The package involves road alignment from Ayer Itam to Lebuhraya Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu bypass. The construction period is three years after site possession in 1H17F.

Details from Zenith–BUCG’s website reveal that this RM810mil road project (RM162m/km) is one of three new traffic dispersal road schemes to be implemented on Penang Island.

This appears to be part of the overall Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP) undertaken by Zenith-BUCG consortium. Another component under the purview of Zenith-BUCG is the Penang undersea tunnel. The package awarded to Mudajaya is a 5km 4-lane dual carriageway (non-tolled) that is likely to be mainly elevated.

CIMB Research said the new contract has increased its order book by 61% to RM2.1bn while the project pretax margins are 6%-8% at the minimum due to the elevated scope of works, and new construction profit is RM15mil to RM20m per annum.

However, as site possession will only take place in 1H17F, full-year impact would only be felt in FY18F onwards. Also, considering the RM31mil construction losses on top of the RM112mil associate losses in 9M16, thisnew Penang contract, although sizeable, would not fully offset the overall losses.

“In the medium term, Mudajaya is tendering for an MRT package, new government building jobs, potential new domestic solar farm venture and is reviving its power plant tenders, while pursuing variation order (VO) claims on selected contracts.

“We retain our RM1bil new job assumption for FY16F (which now has been exceeded) and RM800mil per annum for FY17-18F.

“This contract win is clearly another big milestone for Mudajaya this year. However, our key concerns continue to be the prolonged construction and associate losses.

“We maintain net loss forecast for FY16F and believe there are downside risks to our net profit estimates for FY17-18F due to delay risks for the Indian IPP. Our target price remains pegged to a 60% RNAV discount in view of the weak earnings outlook. Any upside to share price is an opportunity to take profit. Risk is faster earnings turnaround,” said CIMB Research

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-08 20:50 | Report Abuse

Big shareholder bought back 6.5mil share at 0.90 on 5/12/2016. That means Mudajaya worth more than 0.9 .

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:08 | Report Abuse

Guess who sold

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:10 | Report Abuse

Mulpha I believe...and they should have board representation as they are a major shareholder.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:21 | Report Abuse

Meaning they have information on everything the board discusses.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:23 | Report Abuse

Why sell the goose if its going to lay the golden egg?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:26 | Report Abuse

The sale and purchase leaves more questions than answers

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:30 | Report Abuse

PETALING JAYA: Mudajaya Group Bhd’s former managing directors, Ng Ying Loong (pic) and Anto Joseph, have raised their stake in the power plant builder.

They now control the biggest block of shares in the company.

Dataran Sentral (M) Sdn Bhd, the management company owned by Ng and Joseph, acquired 6.5 million shares in Mudajaya from Mulpha International Bhd on Dec 5 at 90 sen each, filings with Bursa Malaysia yesterday showed.

The transaction increased Dataran Sentral stake in Mudajaya to 110.18 million shares or 20.5%.

At the same time, Mulpha’s stake in Mudajaya was further reduced to 100.3 million shares, or 18.6%. The disposal came less than three months after Mulpha sold 13.46 million shares in Mudajaya at RM1.01 each.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:34 | Report Abuse

Dataran Sentral's shareholding value has dropped from hundred's of million years back to about 88 million even after the purchase...so 6.5 million is a "show of confidence" so to speak?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:35 | Report Abuse

Wonder what Fairfax will do...they hold about 14%?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:38 | Report Abuse

If Fairfax sells...they will be shooting themselves in the foot

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 10:41 | Report Abuse

Does Mulpha really need to sell? Are they so desperate for funds? Anyone knows?

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 11:32 | Report Abuse

share price moving up now.

Posted by chinaman > 2016-12-09 11:36 | Report Abuse

if I'm not wrong-with only 18.6% stake, Mulpha don't have to taking into account of Mudajaya's profit/loss into its balance sheet since its not an associate anymore...

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 11:38 | Report Abuse

may be Anto Joseph can help to solve India power plants problems once he control Mudajaya.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 11:57 | Report Abuse

I believe u are rite chinaman 20 - 50% ownership is an associate in balance sheet. Now onwards recorded as investments.... But why sell the goose?

Posted by chinaman > 2016-12-09 12:00 | Report Abuse

I can't deny the possibility mulpha make a comeback only after mudajaya profit stabilised. he must foresee another few qtr losses. till this settled- mulpha want his account take it aside

Posted by chinaman > 2016-12-09 12:01 | Report Abuse

another possibility is MGO process is in the making...

Posted by chinaman > 2016-12-09 12:04 | Report Abuse

Lee Seng Huang is not holding any director in mudajaya anymore. he's shareholder now with voting power in any MGO

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 13:48 | Report Abuse

Mulpha can now state as long term investments in Mudajaya at cost instead of market value? Anyone knows? Whatever it is...major shareholder selling off significant number of shares is a red flag in my opinion. Within 3 months 2 large selloffs.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 14:10 | Report Abuse

Then why another big shareholder dare to pay about 6mil to buy the Shares? Just to show the loss of Mudajaya in their balance sheet for fun?????? Former

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 14:16 | Report Abuse

I think this deal may be connection with Penang 81mil project and India power plants fire up very soon. Besides that, former MD NG YING LOONG now is one of the major shareholder.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 14:30 | Report Abuse

6mil shares cost 5.4m (.90cts)... is chicken feed compared to hundreds of million losses these 2 guys lost so far. If they don't support who will?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 14:37 | Report Abuse

No big shareholder can now sell large number of shares to retail investors without pushing down the price further in my opinion. All the big fish are stuck. Just have to wait it out I guess or sell to the big shareholders like what happened with Mulpha

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 14:37 | Report Abuse

sounds funny.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 14:39 | Report Abuse

Turnover of shares of this counter is low and punishing to large sale of shares.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 14:43 | Report Abuse

so you mean these 2 guys are idiots to buy a hopeless company share.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 14:45 | Report Abuse

ICRA (for RKM Powergen India) and RAM ratings (local MTN borrowings) not out in a long time...maybe the borrowings were refinanced by banks and therefore do not require external rating agencies...just a wild guess.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 16:01 | Report Abuse

They are definetelly not idiots...that I can assure you.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-09 16:05 | Report Abuse

Is Mulpha an idiot?

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 16:56 | Report Abuse

so I said may be this deal connection with Penang 81mil project n India power plants project.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-09 17:02 | Report Abuse

They exchanged something what they want.

Posted by gerry188 > 2016-12-10 12:04 | Report Abuse

Guys, look carefully at how the news article is crafted - the sale from Mulpha Infrastructure (one of the holding companies) to Dataran Sentral (another holding company) which is supposedly controlled by Ng Ying Loong and Anto Joseph.

First of all, do check who really controls Dataran Sentral. Note that Mulpha Infrastructure has sold many times before this including MCB's director Wee Teck Nam.

Don't you think there is an effort to try and create the impression that there is a base price ie 90 sen, for the counter ie to prevent it from falling further (as I am sure most of the shares in the holding companies are held on margin financing).

I wrote previously back in late 2014, when the counter was well above RM 2.00, that the stock was on a downtrend and that if it breached 1.80, it would fall to a long term support of 1.10, which unfortunately has also been breached.

The reasons given then are still the same today and the company is still fire fighting.

Johnny Cash who is active here may remember what I said then. After which I did not post here again as too many people were offended by the assessment.

And do take note that Fairfax holds about 80 million shares but they have stopped averaging down since March 2016. What happens if they capitulate?

Posted by gerry188 > 2016-12-10 12:20 | Report Abuse

Last quarterly report (30 Sept 2016): Construction segment revenue 426.2 million and loss before tax of 31.7 million.

Does this show they can generate profit from their construction segment? All construction companies are facing razor thin margins due to the reducing number of projects and the fact that pricing is now very competitive.

So, how much profit or loss do you think the company will incur on their RM 810 million Zenith BUGC project and the RM 1.325 billion Pan Borneo Highway packages? The last I heard, even IJM is thinking of giving up on their Pan Borneo Highway package.