Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 09:42 | Report Abuse

Another catalyst for a continued price surge is the result of the arbitration between CMC and Mudajaya...with RM175m at stake

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 09:43 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya sure to get paid..only quantum to be decided for LRT work done

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 09:45 | Report Abuse

The amount is already in the balance sheet as current asset but cash flow will improve

Posted by kevin5059 > 2016-12-22 10:13 | Report Abuse

Look like the worst is coming to an end. Pending for India Project to get started then Muda will see the clear blue sky again!! Pity to those who sell at 0.73.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 10:16 | Report Abuse

RM100m share of losses for Mudajaya's 26% ownership for the 9 month period ended 30SEP16...easy to calculate the joint venture RKM Powergen's total losses for the 9 month period '16...= about RM384m. Total for full year should be about RM430 to RM440m. Next year my estimate is about RM500m to RM700m for full year minus income from sale of power -if any (if no firing on all cylinder's - worse) bearing in mind that 1st quarter this year very low losses, then 2nd Q RM61m..then 3rd Q RM40m. Also 3rd & 4th plant interest should double the losses in simple terms. Yes u can argue "non cash items/depreciation blah blah" but interest cost cannot be ignored.

Still...by no means a easy decision to sell/hold/buy.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 10:24 | Report Abuse

1 simple question on my mind is...RM 5 to 8 billion project....funds from where and how to pay back...when shooting blanks? Even if u sell power...any buyers at the moment? how much can RKM Powergen earn in total for the sale of power RM269 per annum (about 70m (Mudajaya's 26%) x 4)? Enough to pay interest and principal? how many years have passed by? Any cost for waiting? Any funding by India authorities??? Can someone answer these questions?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 10:30 | Report Abuse

be careful...if buy...buy at intervals...remember it shot to RM1.50 and then fell to 0.85cts in no time...sometime this year.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 10:34 | Report Abuse

It seems like UPP1 and UPP2 has been commissioned from this source http://powermin.nic.in/sites/default/files/uploads/LS_11082016_Eng.pdf

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 10:45 | Report Abuse

Heartbreakkid ...Can't open the site. If u are referring to Plants 1 & 2 no issue...waiting for PPA's (Power Purchase Agreements to be signed) and then sell...but plants 2 & 3...that's the issue now. 1 & 2 can only give RM35m per annum (projected income).


No offence just for exchange of knowledge sake.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 11:00 | Report Abuse

400523 did you click it? Try to copy and paste the URL. I can open the site. When they say the units are commissioned that means both unit 1 and 2 are ready to generate income. The total power that is agreed to be supplied is 350MW as per the PPA http://www.uppcl.org/uppcllink/documents/200420161101071PPA_RKM_Original.pdf

Which simply means their revenue is 350MW x 24 x 30 x RM0.33 = RM83.16 mil. Assuming that they get 30% profit, the profit will be around RM300mil annually and Mudajaya with the 26% will be getting around RM77mil annually. I don't consider outage time because during outage the other unit will be able to cover the load demand. I am looking for an answer if the machine is supplying the power to the Grid.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:30 | Report Abuse

1 major correction...what is Mudajaya's share....the above is RKM Powergen's share..I believe

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:31 | Report Abuse

I think RM 77m is for all 4 plants if not mistaken...if only for 2...very good

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:35 | Report Abuse

But still not enough to cover interest and principal cost of the Power Plant project...I believe

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 11:35 | Report Abuse

RM77 mil is for Mudajaya portion. RKM profit is about RM223 mil. This is assuming that they get 30% profit from the continuous production and sale of 350MW power for a year.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 11:37 | Report Abuse

RM77 mil is for both unit 1 and unit 2 that generates a combined output of 350MW. If all four maybe double about RM150 mil per year. This is however assumption, the profit maybe less than 30% because they have to payback the enormous amount of loan they have received.

Posted by inlandmarks > 2016-12-22 11:47 | Report Abuse

UOB is an established bank. The bank will scrutinise the company profile, projects and protect. Mudajaya can get the loan means UOB is confident in Mudajaya...

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:50 | Report Abuse

If u are rite...can anyone calculate if a buyer purchases the 4 units...and earns RM150m per annum for 20 years (I believe that's the deal) how much? Rm 3 billion? What is the present accumulated costs for Mudajaya's 26% ? maybe still can sell. pay RM1 billion to get rights to 26% ownership to earn RM3 billion over 20 years...can someone figure out...groggy already...just hypothetical...haha. maybe we can get some idea from this...whether can sell or not

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:55 | Report Abuse

Hey wait a min...if RM150m per annum...maybe no need to sell... can pay off interest and principal for loans

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:57 | Report Abuse

Sure or not heartbreakkid?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:58 | Report Abuse

I tot power oversupply...can get so much meh?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 11:59 | Report Abuse

Anyway I am a loser...so maybe u are rite

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 12:04 | Report Abuse

I think overall cost RM 5 to 8 billion upon completion..just wild guess...dono wat is Mudajaya's obligation

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 12:04 | Report Abuse

400523, PPA is for 25 years which means, assuming they generate a total of 700MW from all 4 units for 25 years, Mudajaya will make about RM3.75 bil assuming the profit is at 30%. Now Mudajaya has invested about RM1.5 bil with their 26% share in the project. I am not sure about the loan and interest rates. You can see where they stand from here. Now the most important thing is to start selling power to the grid if they really want to make money.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 12:08 | Report Abuse

400523 my 30% profit is just as assumption. I am not selling power so i won't know the exact figure but i am quite sure the profit margin is above 20%. If not why would anyone want to build power plant?

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 12:14 | Report Abuse

So far the PPA is 350MW for Unit 1 and Unit 2. I read that the power demand is increasing and I assume that they will be able to generate another 350MW from Unit 3 and Unit 4. The total of 700MW is only 50% of the total power plant capacity. If they don't generate at least 700MW from the 1440MW power plant, then the whole project is a waste.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-22 12:14 | Report Abuse

At 0.96 , sell if you need money or satisfied with the profit you gained. Hold if you bet India power plants fire up soon but you have no extra money to buy. Buy if you have extra money and ready to take risk if India power plants continues to delay fire up. Judge yourself.

Posted by speakup > 2016-12-22 12:20 | Report Abuse

dont push up for Mr Koon to sell! Mr Koon trapped in Mudajaya for years!

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 12:20 | Report Abuse

Actually, I believe if you know what is the interest expensed per quarter (take off the depreciation part from share of losses from associates for Quarter 6 & 9) you can know what is interest cost per annum for 2 of the plants for Mudajaya...then x 4...u will get interest cost per annum (roughly) for all 4 for Mudajaya...that is only the interest portion...add the principal payment portion...then we can know whether can pay or not from the proceeds of sale of power...or need to sell fast.

Just a wild unprofessional suggestion. Since no transparency by management

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-22 12:51 | Report Abuse

sold 200lots at 0.955, balance 300lots bet India power plants fire up soon. If price below 0.9, buy back 200lots.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 13:04 | Report Abuse

I can anticipate why the management does not want to sell the stakes in India. My guess is, they are anticipating for the RM150 mil annually which is probably more than the profit they can get from construction projects with so much of trouble.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2016-12-22 13:11 | Report Abuse

Look like someone unloading shares at 0.96-0.965.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 13:39 | Report Abuse

Someone mentioned UOB will not lend unless they know for sure it's ok (project)...well let me tell you they most probably have taken fixed and floating charges/Debenture over assets...there goes Manara Mudajaya and the other valuable prized assets/property if it fails (shareholders get IOU chits as unsecured creditors).Nobody will lend to a company with RM100m losses in 9 months without securing itself. Sometimes they also demand Joint and several guarantee from directors as well...meaning they are personally liable and stand to loose everything except their underwear. But for public listed companies maybe not.

Pay up the MTN and transfer the charge over property to the new lenders. The Hongkees will do the same...maybe 2nd charge or charge over 26% ownership over RKM.

Bankers are not investors like you and me or Fairfax who are investors...they are lenders and grab 1st when everything goes wrong.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 13:45 | Report Abuse

ICRA Indai ratings on RKM Powergen Pte Ltd's borrowings will be the ideal way to assess the Power investment in INDIA...believe me ...they are now 1 of the best in financial analysis of corporate's in the world. ratings should be out unless refinanced by other lenders ...so no analysis is required anymore. Last rating was "D" near default if I am not mistaken.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 13:51 | Report Abuse

Can the 74% owner of the joint venture refinance their borrowings in India as easily as Mudajaya? Or are banks and or lenders waiting to throw in the spanner?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 13:59 | Report Abuse

Just remember the 2nd and 3rd plants are yet to be completed though it was reported to so by now...let alone sell power. Time is money...RM5 to 8 billion has been invested there and money is expensive to borrow. Why would Mudajaya ponder the sale of a "Golden Goose" able to generate RM150m as you say...if not for the overbearing and rising costs of the project. Points to ponder..

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 14:09 | Report Abuse

Ratings revised for the bank loan facilities of RK Powergen Private Limited to [ICRA]BB- and [ICRA]A4; outlook revised to Negative
July, 30 2015 | Rationale

Rating reaffirmed at [ICRA]D for the bank loan facilities of RKM Powergen Private Limited
October, 07 2015 | Rationale

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 14:29 | Report Abuse

Within 2 months from July'15 to Oct'15 the rating dived from BB- to "D". Can't get the latest...can anyone help...jus google ICRA RKM Powergen rating

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 14:29 | Report Abuse

I believe you can also get the quantum of borrowings as well.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-22 14:31 | Report Abuse

Be informed to make the right decision whether to buy, sell or hold. Find out as much as you can

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-22 17:02 | Report Abuse

400523, i am trying to get information. I will share if i manage to get any info here for others to benefit also.

Posted by johnny cash > 2016-12-22 18:42 | Report Abuse

Thanks guys you people are kind hearted people

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-22 23:18 | Report Abuse

I believe you still holding a substantial amount.

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-22 23:19 | Report Abuse

Its impossible to break 1.50 next 6 months.

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-22 23:20 | Report Abuse

Equipment warranty big issue.

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-22 23:23 | Report Abuse

Perhaps run out of money to buy arang to fire turbin.

Posted by heaven123 > 2016-12-22 23:25 | Report Abuse

Bank tarik their support.

Posted by HeartBreakKid > 2016-12-23 00:34 | Report Abuse

Just for the record my shareholding is only 200 lots and the current price is close to my average per share.

Posted by IBanker > 2016-12-23 08:17 | Report Abuse

Heartbreakkid, do u think Mudajaya has potential to go up high as in share price?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-12-23 10:17 | Report Abuse

Anybody care to pay for RKM Powergen's latest March 2016 audited financials?

https://www.tofler.in/companyinfo/U40101TN2004PTC054931/r-k-m-powergen-private-limited

https://www.zaubacorp.com/company/R-K-M-POWERGEN-PRIVATE-LIMITED/U40101TN2004PTC054931

Posted by charles pang kah keet > 2016-12-23 10:24 | Report Abuse

TODAY GORENG UP 1.00SEN ABOVE, UP 0:06SEN, HURRY TO BUY NOW.