When overall sentiments is not good, many investors will shift to 'safer' counters to protect capital....especially stocks with high dividends yield, low gearing.....
mycron's core fundamentals have not changed...but it delivered results below expectations (due to time lag dynamics i had mentioned earlier) next quarter or 2 qtr earnings is also foreseen to drop...
people do not have the patience.
Prestar fundamentals had improved as good as Mycron (due to Megasteel closure)...but its near future earnings is also expected to be good.
As csc steel management mentioned..q4 normally is better than q3...lets have a look at the coming qr result..anyways..mycron eps still up..i dun think is that bad
Is it earnings of Mycron attaining peak in 3rd Qtr 16? Next QR semms going to be better than last year but the quantum of growth doesn't seen convicing given a company with high gearing and Nil dividends yield. Everyone is expecting capital gain from the appreciation of share price. People would certaily cut loss once the share price growth dented.
EPS:
30 Sep 16 - 3.56 cents 30 Jun 16 - 3.30 cents 31 Mar 16 - 2.36 cents 31 Dec 15 - 1.89 cents 30 Sep 15 - 1.00 cents
there is not Steel Theme play...one has to be careful to understand what happening...
(1) Megasteel closure has real fundamental benefits for those companies who were forced to buy from it locally..
(2) Steel price moving up would definitely improve the margin of steel players including traders and manufacturers in the long run....but it is most evident on company who produce the steel itself from the top upstream like Annjoo...who basically makes the steel from the Iron Ore
some recent poor performance of these companies are mainly due to the timing effects of the raw material price and the agreed selling price with the local clients....exporter and overseas based (Prestar has company based in Vietnam) companies will be less affected.
Prestar - directors acquired back at 0.64 (it has only gone up by 10%) i still feel PRESTAR is the only steel counter that i have got FULL of confidence in....
problem with steel counters is that the investors' confidence in them is very low due to previous prolonged bad track record. this quarter's results mostly below expectations after the previous 2 quarters, most management also highlighted some downside risks in their prospects, so a lot of investors rather just lock in profit. which is also why steel counters are unlikely to command decent PE
me hardsell also no effect...but at least i told what i thought...dont blame if im wrong...but instead i would love to see counter arguments...
Prestar has thin margin and high debt...meaning their asset size is huge compared to their NTA.. this all means downside is extremely limited (coz they will die if it happens) and there is a huge upside potential!
Today I eat my humble pie. Now I'm just stunned looking at my loss and lost as to what to do next. At RM 0.84, I don't know what's the downside vs upside. Wait for it to rebound and chop? Wait until just before next QR?
And I thought both QoQ and YoY also +ve means it's quite safe. How stupid. Sigh.
Many forget to apply this rule when the market heats up :
3 Buy up trending stocks provided they have good profit growth prospect and selling at low P/E ratio. The advantage is that after your purchase, you can see the price continues to go up.
" But you must remember that no share can continue to go up for whatever reason. You must sell to take profit"
It will b painful to see paper profit turns into paper loss....i m glad to see yr explaination today...this is a timely advice to those who blindly believe in tp
Do u remember i mentioned a few times that most of tp (say 70-80%0 doesnt materialise...mayb time to teach yr subscribers how to take profit as suggested by up_down
I learnt this when johotin wa up ard 300% fm 0.20 to 0.80+ last year n when all were so optimistic on their next q result due to low sugar prices....then they posted 2 lousy q results n killed many
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
CharlesT
14,953 posts
Posted by CharlesT > 2016-11-30 11:31 | Report Abuse
If Boss oredi distributed lots of shares at high price to the public what would they do next?
Buy low sell high n buy higher?