Posted by gogogogo > 2016-03-08 05:31 | Report Abuse

saltedfish is doing the same la

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-03-08 06:58 | Report Abuse

USD no sign to rebound, export counter keep dropping today!

Posted by MuttonCurry > 2016-03-08 08:37 | Report Abuse

Divvy Ex date today !

Posted by Jeff Lee > 2016-03-08 08:46 | Report Abuse

Oil Prices Should Fall, Possibly Hard 07 Mar 16


Oil prices should fall, possibly hard, in coming weeks. That is because fundamentals do not support the present price.

Prices should fall to around $30 once the empty nature of an OPEC-plus-Russia production freeze is understood. A return to the grim reality of over-supply and the weakness of the world economy could push prices well into the $20s.

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi speaks at the annual IHS CERAWeek global energy conference Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi speaks at the annual IHS CERAWeek global energy conference Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

A Production Freeze Will Not Reduce The Supply Surplus

An OPEC-plus-Russia production cut would be a great step toward re-establishing oil-market balance. I believe that will happen later in 2016 but is not on the table today.

In late February, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi stated categorically, “There is no sense in wasting our time in seeking production cuts. That will not happen.”

Instead, Russia and Saudi Arabia have apparently agreed to a production freeze. This is meaningless theater but it helped lift oil prices 37% from just more than $26 in mid-February to almost $36 per barrel last week. That is a lot of added revenue for Saudi Arabia and Russia but it will do nothing to balance the over-supplied world oil market.

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The problem is that neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia has greatly increased production since the oil-price collapse began in 2014 (Figure 1). A freeze by those countries, therefore, will only ensure that the supply surplus will not get worse because of them. It is, moreover, doubtful that Saudi Arabia or Russia have the spare capacity to increase production much beyond present levels making the proposal of a freeze cynical rather than helpful.

Chart-US-RUSSIA-SAUDI Incremental Prod MAR 2016
Figure 1. Incremental liquids production since January 2014 by the United States plus Canada, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. (click image to enlarge)

Saudi Arabia and Russia are two of the world’s largest oil-producing countries. Yet in January 2016, Saudi liquids output was only ~110,000 bpd more than in January 2014 and Russia was actually producing ~50,000 bpd less than in January 2014. The present world production surplus is more than 2 mmbpd.

By contrast, the U.S. plus Canada are producing ~1.9 mmbpd more than in January 2014 and Iraq’s crude oil production has increased ~1.7 mmbpd. Also, Iran has potential to increase its production by as much as ~1 mmbpd during 2016. Yet, none of these countries have agreed to the production freeze. Iran, in fact, called the idea “ridiculous.”

Growing Storage Means Lower Oil Prices

U.S. crude oil stocks increased by a remarkable 10.4 mmb in the week ending February 26, the largest addition since early April 2015. That brought inventories to an astonishing 162 mmb more than the 2010-2014 average and 74 mmb above the bloated levels of 2015 (Figure 2).

Crude Oil Stocks_5-Year AVG MIN MAX 6 FEB 2016
Figure 2. U.S. crude oil stocks. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. (click image to enlarge)

The correlation between U.S. crude oil stocks and world oil prices is strong. Tank farms at Cushing, Oklahoma (PADD 2) and storage facilities in the Gulf Coast region (PADD 3) account for almost 70% of total U.S. storage and are critical in WTI price formation. When storage exceeds about 80% of capacity, oil prices generally fall hard. Current Cushing storage is at 91% of capacity, the Gulf Coast is at 87% and combined, they are at a whopping 88% of capacity (Figure 3).

Cushing & Gulf Coast Inventory & Utilization 6 Feb 2016
Figure 3. Cushing and Gulf Coast crude oil storage. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. (click image to enlarge)

Prices have fallen hard in step with growing storage throughout 2015 and early 2016. Since talk of a production freeze first surfaced, however, intoxicated investors have ignored storage builds and traders are testing new thresholds before they fall again.

The truth is that prices will not increase sustainably until storage volumes fall, and that cannot happen until U.S. production

Posted by ssali95 > 2016-03-08 09:12 | Report Abuse

fly....fly.....

Posted by ivonss > 2016-03-08 09:18 | Report Abuse

Fly..........fly.......fly......................

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-03-08 09:47 | Report Abuse

Fly? Why calling fly? 苍蝇？

Posted by tt1981 > 2016-03-08 09:52 | Report Abuse

Fly to Holland....

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-03-08 10:06 | Report Abuse

Haha, good say, tt1981

Posted by ssali95 > 2016-03-08 10:07 | Report Abuse

Fly ................. to hell (*&^%!) ........or ........to heaven ($$)

Posted by Jeff Lee > 2016-03-08 10:10 | Report Abuse

usd vs myr still 4.12

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-03-08 10:11 | Report Abuse

How much hevea dividend yield annualized?

Posted by timing > 2016-03-08 10:27 | Report Abuse

all export counter seems dropping

Posted by oregami > 2016-03-08 10:27 | Report Abuse

2 class of investors. 1.) ride the wave (now all their money flow to o&g). 2.) contrarian (now waiting to rip profit from o&g and started accumulating good export stocks)

Posted by saltedfish > 2016-03-08 10:31 | Report Abuse

Aiyoh, dropped again. Lol

Posted by naruko > 2016-03-08 10:39 | Report Abuse

Sold all my shares...looking for other counter

Posted by flytothemoon > 2016-03-08 10:44 | Report Abuse

have been dropping to 11 days, cool

Posted by GODinvest > 2016-03-08 10:48 | Report Abuse

Market scare cannot buy cheap in hevea , today up areadly 。

Posted by flytothemoon > 2016-03-08 10:52 | Report Abuse

for*

Posted by hansolo1 > 2016-03-08 11:18 | Report Abuse

should i go in now??

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-03-08 11:25 | Report Abuse

Go in to holland??

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 12:05 | Report Abuse

Stock price considers cheap now, current price is buy back price by company, whether buy or not that is on your hands, 80% capital already bought this counter. i will All in if mother share drops below 1.13, RM converts USD last few months range 4.00-4.50, up and down is not more than that 12.5%, but stock price drops from the higher 1.79 to 1.18 now, it is roughly 33%. i am not worrying it drop further. company earning is only affected around 10-12.5% by USD, If the price drop again i estimates it can only drop maximum 10% again. So Buy Call Target Price 2.00 in long-term.

Posted by goreng_kaki > 2016-03-08 12:10 | Report Abuse

Cheap cheap buy more

Posted by goreng_kaki > 2016-03-08 12:11 | Report Abuse

Company share buy back, scare wat?dare dare buy la

Posted by 914601117 > 2016-03-08 12:35 | Report Abuse

One should deduct 10% from revenue as potential reduced in net profit, in this case Revenue RM 500m x 10% = RM 50m gone as unrealised exchange loss. That's worst case scenario.

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-03-08 13:37 | Report Abuse

One thing holding back Hevea shares is the huge volume of warrants outstanding. Since Feb 2016 already a few million converted to shares causing dilution. Share buybacks in similar period only around 300k shares bought back. But I guess one can also say when warrants convert to shares, Hevea will have more cash in hand? Hope for more dividends.

But wonder why Hevea is not expanding its business? No news of major capacity expansion in spite of good margins earned?

Posted by TomyamGong > 2016-03-08 14:13 | Report Abuse

its time to go .. hahaa

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 14:53 | Report Abuse

Heveaboard to spend RM20m capex to increase capacity by 15%

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/heveaboard-spend-rm20m-capex-increase-capacity-15

Posted by ssali95 > 2016-03-08 15:03 | Report Abuse

no more cheap shares ...c u at 2.00.... hahahaa

Posted by ssali95 > 2016-03-08 15:04 | Report Abuse

lets count our dividend first

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 15:16 | Report Abuse

malaysia export in january, timber & timber-based products (+12.2 percent to MYR2.0 billion, 3.3 percent share), revenue will decrease? i dont think so. i believe hevea will bring another good result in coming quarter, hold tight and may be this is the last chance to collect.

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-03-08 15:38 | Report Abuse

andrewhlc, thanks for the link. Good to hear the MD says to expand capacity by 10-15% although it is a bit difficult to imagine he could expand so much by only spending RM20mil. Hevea earned RM500mil in revenue for 2015. 15% of revenue (not capacity yet), means RM75mil in additional sales. Hevea also made PAT of RM73mil. 15% of that means additional RM11mil profit although it should be more and not just linear additions due to econ of scale.

But now after reading the article, I'm worried about another issue: dividend. It is in net cash position of RM60mil as at 31.12.2015, it expects to do well in 2016 but the MD says no guidance for dividend payout? It should easily add another RM60mil net cash by end 2016 if it merely maintains 2015's performance and paid RM20mil cash for capex. That's RM120mil net cash vs PAT of RM75mil. Even if it pays out 50% profit as dividend, it will still retain over RM80mil in cash.

Dont tell me Hevea is thinking of acquiring another company???? Otherwise sit on the cash for what? Reward shareholders! Hahahaha.....

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 15:53 | Report Abuse

Welcome Jupiter! Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful LOL

Posted by flytothemoon > 2016-03-08 16:00 | Report Abuse

the dividend is too little la, if you have 1000 lots shares only can get RM800

Posted by noobnnew > 2016-03-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

saltedfish not here today?

Posted by Budapest > 2016-03-08 16:05 | Report Abuse

If bought this morning,entitle for dividend or not since the closed time@4pm?

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 16:10 | Report Abuse

i don't care about the dividend, as long as it continue expanding and make profit to the shareholders, i will hold it, GENM dividend is also too little lah

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 16:16 | Report Abuse

Budapest, you are not entitled dividend if you buy today, if you bought 5pm yesterday you only entitled.

Posted by Budapest > 2016-03-08 16:17 | Report Abuse

andrewhlc,I ask abt Hevea,why you mention GENM?0.0075 consider ok if judging from the share price

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 16:19 | Report Abuse

Budapest i anwered flytothemoon

Posted by charliecharlie > 2016-03-08 16:19 | Report Abuse

saltedfish on sick leave. dun worry, he'll be back when he buys into Hevea again.

Posted by Budapest > 2016-03-08 16:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks,bro andrewhlc

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 16:20 | Report Abuse

welcome

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-03-08 16:28 | Report Abuse

hold ur stock tightly, may be no more chance to buy low price anymore

Posted by hansolo1 > 2016-03-08 16:34 | Report Abuse

Managed to buy some @1.18 =) Lets hope it fly

Posted by Budapest > 2016-03-08 16:40 | Report Abuse

Up we go,see you@1.50 ！

Posted by flytothemoon > 2016-03-08 16:41 | Report Abuse

bought some , should have some rebound

Posted by WarmEye > 2016-03-08 16:47 | Report Abuse

yesterday i bought hevea, can i get the div? 1 biji give RM7.50 ke?

Posted by charliecharlie > 2016-03-08 16:48 | Report Abuse

@warmeye yeap...1000 shares gives u RM7.50.

Posted by BUCKBUNNY > 2016-03-08 16:50 | Report Abuse

players had swift to AAX and Chin Hin..better take this opportunity to run..