yup.. focus lumber is also another good counter, cash rich...
the good things i like about Evergreen are: 1) wood/timber related stocks have up-and-down cycles. It is almost (if not already) at the bottom of its down cycle now and the share price has hit the lowest in its history (first time hit below 40 sen)... it was lowest at 42 sen back in 2013/2014.
2) its net gearing ratio is improving from years to years. They used to have a lot capex to expand, but now they have almost invested the major capex that they need and I don't foresee a lot of $$$ will be injected for capex for the next couple of years.. their total debts have reduced. healthy debt/equity ratio.
3) it has a lot of tangible fixed assets. NTA is RM1.41, but share price is only RM0.395 now. NTA is 3.6x of its current share price.
4) Evergreen is the largest MDF producer in SEA. top 5 in Asia. And they recently expand heavily into diversification such as particleboards & RTA (Ready to Assemble furniture) which have higher profit margin than MDF. So even when market was poor, the small players will be wiped out first (just like what happened in 2011-2014) when economy was bad, many small MDF players closed shop. With that, total MDF supply in the market reduced and those players who still survived (Evergreen was one of them) came in to fill up the market demand. that 2015-2016 was great year for Evergreen. Again, bcoz this industry has a cycle. So just invest when everyone pulls out.. hold and wait... its peak will come back
Just bought some @ 0.395 to average, now my net purchased price is 0.46 . Still lost 0.07 . Today , if go below 0.38 , I will buy few more to average , to 0.43 . It seems I have to keep this share for a long long time !
kilang dkt johor dah bungkus, kilang dekat Nilai line 2 xda untung, sudah tutup, line 1 je tinggal,tahun dpn bulan 3 line 1 close shop..pindah Thailand...aiyooo berapa byk kilang mahu tutup tahun depan ini Malaysia?...
where is that harry te*? tot he say hold long term can be fruitful one.. tot this is his selected stock pick wor during mid2017.. now the price, almost all lose 60%+...
just technical rebound lah.... going down also not everyday price goes lower.... bear also must rest sometime.... just long term outlook is bad... slow boiling frog mah....:-)
now the bear market is starting to show its power.... still cannot feel or see it ? I believe Mr Doom, CPTeh will be happy. His long waiting days is finally coming after shouting for Doom days for so many years.... I think he might continue to post Doom message every week...LOL..
Even though the company is currently trading at only 12 months trailing earnings of 8.4x PE, it might not be sustainable going forward especially with the drop of profit recorded in 3Q18. Given the expected higher cost of operation due to higher log, glue and labour cost, it is expected that the profit level will most likely remain at the 3Q18 level in FY19. To make it worst, the oversupply of particleboard has depressed the average selling price of the company’s products (which also had affected the profit margins). However please take not that 3Q18 positive result was mainly due to an investment income of RM10.1mil. If you were to exclude this, the company would have actually posted a loss for the quarter.
Assuming the market improve and the company managed to record an almost similar profit level of FY18 (core profits were better in 1Q and 2Q of the year. However, 2Q18 result has also a negative goodwill of RM8mil. Excluding that the PAT would have drop to around RM4 mil) of around RM20mil in FY19. This means at the current share price, the company will actually be trading at a forward PE of 14.3x. This is higher than the industry average of below 10x.
The company has a strong balance sheet with net gearing of only 9.5%. Currently the company is only trading at a PB valuation of 0.3x. It might be a very good candidate for those investors with long term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Evergreen Fibreboard (due to near term earnings uncertainties caused by weak particle board market), I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.2x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.6x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
For FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of new Myvi and the newly launched SUV and also the new Alza in 2H19.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. Most analysts have a TP of above RM3 for the company with Hong Leong being the lowest at RM3.13 and Maybank the highest at RM4.50.
Why I look here look there Orion very similar to 1 stock king I in 2014:
1. No of share: both also about 600m 2. Start to goreng from 0.105 3. Both start after announcement of government link project. Both fintech. "I" doing GST collection software for government. 4. Cumulative 4 q earning after start goreng was 30m for "I". Cimb estimated Orion can come to highest 29m for 2019. 5. Both also start from weak results. "I" only 421k. Orion 1m. 6. Both also got pp.
One famous anei behind the rise of "I". I believe he also behind Orion......BV
It's not ever green but never green. Hahaha.. Anyhow, I think the bottom is here already, but now is still not the best time to rush in. There are so many better choices, why waste time on this nevergreen?
But I won't throw it now if I'm holding this share, I really think the bottom is here or somewhere near. It's pointless to throw it now. Of course I won't buy it too, because don't know when will it come out of the bottom, don't want to waste time on it.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
George Leong
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Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 17:56 | Report Abuse
For those who are into export counters, can have a look at Focus Lumber.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/investmentopportunity/184509.jsp