Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@SSLee, I respect that you have such a courage to share with us. Prehaps you are too humble. I am pretty sure, you have added many more + rebound, you have done pretty well.....beating iCAP😂😂....keep this to yourselve....no need to reply....

Posted by zhangwin > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Sslee,

TTB did not miss the glove super bull in 2020. One must understand his investment strategy and his discipline. The glove sector is not his type of business as it has no barrier to entry - any businessman can set up a factory in a short time and start producing gloves e.g. China. In fact he warned about Topglov's "right angled stock" in July 2020 at the peak of Glovemania. Who would have listened to him in the euphoria aka "the party has just begun"? He was spot on. Those retailers (like me) who made some money initially and stayed on at the peak and averaged down all got burnt a year later. If only I had listened to him instead of one popular investment guru.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Zhangwin -- it's also very brave of you sharing the experience on TopGlove. Surely TTB has called something right, something wrong.....in the newsletter calls, it's okay because the buy and sell decisions it's in the reader hands.

He called Nikkei 225 to go down to as low as 8,000, Nasdaq and S&P500 to crash by 25-40%. He revised his call on Nikkei 225 at much later stage and remain unchanged on the US market.

He also called for KLCI to go down to 800 points in the long term but perhaps he is still deliberating on the revision.

In the fund management, the crux of the issue is TTB is sitting on the cash for 7-10 years waiting for KGB, Capital A and Apex?? vs a bit more balanced active money management.....will it be better for shareholders. While waiting, he took 70million fees from shareholders....these are the issues most of us raising here.

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Did anyone make a study what type of stock TTB bought for icap?

Six types of stocks of Peter Lynch
Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ at Jan 9, 2024 3:30 PM | Report Abuse
Growers:
Slow growers
Stalwarts
Fast growers

Cyclicals
Asset plays
Turnarounds


Please share one name of your stock and which category it belongs to. A stock can belong to one or more categories

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Many of us in the market should be able to observe that many of the small caps would have double in price from 2020....

For argument sake, in early 2020 NAV of 3.15, 35% equity, 65% cash, equity portfolio = 1.10, cash 2.05, cash that being deployed double will be MYR 4.10 by now, assuming his original 1.10 equity goes up by 50% it will be 1.65. Added these 2, expected NAV will be MYR 5.75. Current NAV is 3.60 --> Gap fall short = 2.14 or 60% if he wants to employ this waiting for market crash strategy.

Posted by speakup > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

TTB bought a lot SAM

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Yes - Hibiscus at the market crash was 0.35 but he paid for 2 at much later stage also

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

0.35 price was adjusted based on five-to-two price consol....in case you see 1 in AR, you need to compare to 0.15

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I do not need a fund manager to tell me the best opportunity is to buy during market crash. That one everyone already know. But please tell me when will market crash?

Are you going to forever waiting for market crash to employ your cash?

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Retail investor can - you get 3.5-4% in FD and no need for management fees😂😂

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

So very simple, when you see TTB sit on cash - sell iCAP put in FD but don't gamble on TopGlove😂😂

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Right now, I sold 1/2 position despite of TTB has employed a lot of cash due to some I perceived stocks that can beat TTB....It's a risk...I may do worse or do better than iCAP....no free lunch in this world. Want higher return have to move out from my comfort zone. But if you think cash out ended chasing stocks already run far ahead....my humble opinion to stick with iCAP.

Posted by zhangwin > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Sslee,

Regarding the types of stocks in the icap portfolio, he goes mostly for growth stocks buying below intrinsic value and keep for long term or when stocks are above intrinsic values , he sells them. A recent example is UtdPlt bot at 15+ in 2022 and still a buy call at present. Growth stocks that are winners so far are PADINI(free capital) KGB, SAM, APEX, WELLCAL, SURIA. A turnaround is CAPITALA. Other sluggish growth stocks are EUPE, OCK, APM, MKH, OCNCASH, KRONO. Losers are PARKSON, TONGHER, SALUTE, HPMT and BIOHLDG.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Some are pure traditional value play such as low PE, high dividend yield or P/B

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Low P/B

Posted by zhangwin > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I keep a big portion of my retirement money in icap portfolio since 2005 and also buying some of his component icap stocks in the portfolio over the years as he is a trusted fund manager making my money grow slowly but surely like a tortoise overtaking the fast and risky rabbit. This does not mean i don't follow other analysts. Recent calls by some 'free lance' contributers are helpful too e.g YTL, YTLP, MSM, Cresendo, KSeng, Insas, Jtiasa and I follow their buy calls, making some decent gains.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Zhangwin - since you have invested almost all in with iCAP....pay some of the attentions on the issues being discussed here. I personally feel the biggest issue with the fund manager is ego. Ego is dangerous too as this is a component that we usually need to evaluate management just like in other companies. A person is more ready to admit guilt by omission or commission is more straight forward and will learn the lessons more deeply. WB would have many times kicking himself by making mistake by omission for not taking position on stocks he understood perfectly or how he lost shareholders money by making a bad decision. Some said he can do so because of he is WB and admitting it openly won't erode his credibility. To me it's a person DNA, some people just can't sleep when he felt we had not done the best.

I wish you best of luck.

Posted by human > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

ttb write and talked a lot of truth about current and historical events that mainstream media report otherwise.
however when actual deploying his knowledge into investment that didnt yield good results for all of the fund he is managing except icapital.biz.
Icapital.biz long term result still a little bit better than epf but that definitely not enough to prove his method far superior.

Posted by zhangwin > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

FastMoney666,

Rest assured that I am paying attention to what is being discussed here such as the discount, TTB's ego, 'bad boy' COL. Though I am pro TTB, I can see some good points raised here by you, dumbMoney, Sslee and others. A good point is the part played by COL in raising the icap price from 2.20 to 2.80 in a matter of weeks last year.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Would like to share these charts. You can make the evaluation and conclusion yourself

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/egw4i5cazhx4oz464s061/iCAP_discounts_COL.pdf?rlkey=7jhje7o5ss4d1gdkjq5zhtzqc&dl=0

TTB keeps telling the whole world, discounts were widened as they employ running do___gs posting hundreds of posts in this forum, manipulating share price so that COL can buy on cheap.

Hence, I go back to period before COL became a substantial shareholder. The discounts already existed between 13-25%.

You can see after COL became substantial shareholder, they kept buying while the discounts were stable at 20% from the period 2011-2018. For sure many think this part of data fits the narrative but not so fast...see the movie till the end. When COL slowing the buying from 2019 - 2021, annual nett share purchases dropped drastically(you can see the 2 red bars in the chart 1) -- the discounts widened more and more to almost 35%. When iCAP took COL to court, they can't buy post injunction and went down to almost 40%.

Discounts start to improve a bit but like zhangwin said, within weeks of purchases after the injunction lifted, it helps to bring back to about 20% level.....

Post injunction charts are posted for your reference.

Posted by Patient Investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

For iCap shareholders who want to sell, take advantage of the situation by queuing at high price as close as possible to NAV, or even at a premium.

Why?
1. Despite being accused of poor governance and lousy fund management/policy by few in this forum for many years, COL is still buying.
2. Since COL keeps buying even the row with the fund manner, it means they need to buy, so take advantage when demand is there.
3. If someone is bidding for the rights to slaughter our goose and if lucky we get a fair portion of the egg but none after that, wont you want a premium to it?

Posted by Patient Investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

ouch!
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/troublemaking-investors-have-left-us-all-in-a-mess-6872819.html

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Thanks for the reminders.... While COL was buying, Laxey Partner was exiting... If COL was not buying... Dunno who will take over of Laxey large block. If COL and Laxey were party in concert surely we would have seen the married block.... It's understandable when people have so much stakes in iCap... They naturally worries of many sharks...

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@FastMoney Thanks for busting the myth that COL's buying caused the discount to widen when your chart clearly showed the opposite effect. During the injunction period, without COL's buying, the discount widened to 40%, and when buying resumed, it quickly went back up again. COL's MO is to collect CEF's at deep discount, so the deeper the merrier, as they have deep pockets for such bargains. The proper question to ask is why are shareholders bailing out at such cheap levels, instead of trying to pin it on some imaginary bogey man.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

In stock market trading manipulations, usually some kind of underhand tactics are involved, like using various nominee accounts to hide the true identity of the buyers and sellers working in an coordinated fashion. The Aussie professors did not present any evidence that this was happening, other than showing the trades of COL, which are all immediately declared according to listing requirements in a fully transparent manner. The whole market knows whether they are selling or buying and can act accordingly. So if sellers sell with their eyes wide open knowing that COL is buying on the other side, that is willing buyer willing seller, not price manipulation. To accuse a professional fund manager of market manipulation is a very serious matter, don't play play.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

A license holder caught manipulating the market can lose his license, so if there is evidence of such activities, please report them to the authorities, both local and or foreign.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

They should follow Patient Investor...if want to sell Q as close as possible to NAV or at premium. Unfortunately with a little of sweets like yesterday.... Sellers rushing to bring down from 2.90 to same opening price. I was keeping my fingers crossed, hold all sell orders you fools but only God knows why they sold. 😂😂

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Messages crossed... My message was referring why shareholders bailed out as such deep discounts

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

They sold because they feared that once COL takes control of the company and slaughters the goose that lays the golden eggs, it will be too late already, haha. In their mind, the company is now under siege from all sides, the big majority of supporting votes at AGM notwithstanding. Maybe like what the Israelis are saying, Hamas are digging tunnels under their feet, so they must be destroyed at all cost.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The fund manager wrote in the latest quarterly report
“As I wrote in the iconic i Capital publication …”
“… I gave a rare presentation on Malaysia’s longer term investment outlook”

Iconic! Rare! He put Warren Buffett to shame.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@observatory

Don't be like that lah....It helps at least to improve my English vocabulary. Sui! Very rare and iconic. What's an irony!😆

Posted by Patient Investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Why is there selling even now? there could be many reasons:
- short term trader. why YTL power got people sell from rm1 - rm3?
- taking profit. if you accumulate at rm2 few months ago, you are sitting on 40% gain.
- investor needs cash, many icap long term investor are above certain age.

The AUS professor shows COL do BUY/SELL on icap, not pure buying, though the net is buying. You can put yourself on COL shoe and think how you can get the most out of icap as an investor whom goal is not to have a ride as long as possible with the fund manager (vs majority retail investor who want the ride with fund manager).


For iCap shareholders who want to sell, take advantage of the situation by queuing at high price as close as possible to NAV, or even at a premium.

Why?
1. Despite being accused of poor governance and lousy fund management/policy by few in this forum on daily basis, COL is still buying.
2. Since COL keeps buying even the row with the fund manner, it means they need to buy, so take advantage when demand is there.
3. If someone is bidding for the rights to slaughter our goose and if lucky we get a fair portion of the egg but none after that, wont you want a premium to it? So never sell at a discount price.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

“For iCap shareholders who want to sell, take advantage of the situation by queuing at high price as close as possible to NAV, or even at a premium.”

Such opinion assumes COL is willing to pay a price up to, or even exceeding NAV per share.

But what is the maximum value that COL can realise if, a very big IF, that it gains control of ICAP?

Unfortunately, the maximum value per share in liquidating the fund will be no larger than NAV per share.

In fact, given that ICAP's portfolio contains some pretty illiquid stocks, any disorderly disposal will cause share price to collapse. So in practice, the liquidation value is less than NAV per share.

If COL is rational, why should it incur losses by buying above NAV per share?

Anyone can place their sales order at or above NAV. Just that the orders will not be fulfilled.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

You may also argue that COL does not want to liquidate ICAP. COL is willing to pay a premium over ICAP’s NAV as it sees so much potential (although COL’s purchase records over a decade show otherwise)

Some businesses do sell at a premium over its book value. Think of Heineken, Carlsberg, Nestle. The businesses have competitive advantages in the form of brands, product portfolios, distribution network and so on.

But for a fund like ICAP, what competitive advantages does it have? It’s just a collection of other company shares and bank FDs.

Of course TTB may say he IS the competitive advantage. He is THE REASON of the premium.

But if COL treasures TTB so much, they would have handed their money for TTB to manage in a separate fund instead of engaging in a decade old feud.

COL will never pay premium for ICAP shares

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Posted by observatory > Jan 30, 2024 11:20 PM | Report Abuse
Some businesses do sell at a premium over its book value. Think of Heineken, Carlsberg, Nestle. The businesses have competitive advantages in the form of brands, product portfolios, distribution network and so on.

But for a fund like ICAP, what competitive advantages does it have? It’s just a collection of other company shares and bank FDs

Agreed with observatory,
Allow me to explain on my observation:
Definition: Intrinsic value is the Present value of the investment of all the expected cash flow over the lifetime discounted at the appropriate discount rate.

Intrinsic value = (CF1/ (1+d)^1) + (CF2/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CFn/(1+d)^n)

Where:
CF = Cash Flow in the Period
d = Discount rate
n = The period number
This Intrinsic value is actually a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Hence people only look into the forward cash flow or PE multiple in valuation
Example:
CapA's aviation:
Kenanga Research values Capital A’s airline assets at RM2.5 billion based on 10 times the group’s forward price-earnings ratio (PER) for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2024 (FY2024).

Maybank IB Research’s Yin ascribed a much higher valuation of RM5.47 billion, or 91 sen per share based on a forward PER (FY2024) of eight times.
And totally ignore the RM 10 billion+ net liabilities in the book.

Similarly people value Insas as forward PE 5 to 10 X and totally ignore Insas:
FD: RM 938,066,000
Cash and bank balances:RM 154,302,000
Associate company 527,008,575 Inari shares and subsidiary company 1,115,718,665 M&A shares.
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss RM 228,481,000
Trade receivables: RM 517,332,000 of which RM 282,235,000 is loans receivables by Insas Credit & Leasing Sdn Bhd
Or
NAPS: RM 3.56

Hence in order to win big in share market you need to look for company with sudden growth catalyst that will increase the forward earning multifolds, a multibagger stock in the making (case in point Ytlpower)

Or
Growth stock that show yearly revenue and earning increase.

PS: Insas need to employ its cash hoard into new business/investment to generate more earning or else Insas will be forever a value trap.

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

By the way Insas in this month sold 10 million Inari shares and 100 million M&A shares. Will increase the cash hoard by about another RM 60+ million.

Posted by Patient Investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@observatory When you have a 400 million fund in control, many small cap companies will come knock on your door for "collaboration". You dont even have to wait for NAV increase to makes money, even NAV decrease can makes you handsome money.
But it do depends on what level of responsibility do you hold towards the fund investor.


For iCap shareholders who want to sell, take advantage of the situation by queuing at high price as close as possible to NAV, or even at a premium.

Why?
1. Despite being accused of poor governance and lousy fund management/policy by few in this forum on daily basis, COL is still buying.
2. Since COL keeps buying even the row with the fund manner, it means they need to buy, so take advantage when demand is there.
3. If someone is bidding for the rights to slaughter our goose and if lucky we get a fair portion of the egg but none after that, wont you want a premium to it? So never sell at a discount price.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Patient investor, maybe many small cap companies have been knocking at ICAP doors of many years. Yet ICAP was still sold at a discount for at least a decade.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Why will COL pay a premium for ICAP if the maximum value it could extract is merely the NAV per share, minus expenses?

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@observatory Maybe you should add some goodwill value to the Fan Club as some sort of brand loyalty. How many other listed companies out there has one?

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Haha, indeed. The brand value has been cultivated over many years through newsletters and annual events. Unfortunately, it's non-transferable. If COL musters enough votes to shake up ICAP, the "Fan Club" goodwill will evaporate overnight.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@observatory Thanks for reminding me. Forgot that the iCap brand belongs to CDAM, not transferrable if it is no longer the fund manager.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I was the one who dug this up earlier while doing my due diligence.

Posted by Patient Investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@observatory you dont really get I meant or playing dumb? :)


For iCap shareholders who want to sell, take advantage of the situation by queuing at high price as close as possible to NAV, or even at a premium.

Why?
1. Despite being accused of poor governance and lousy fund management/policy by few in this forum on daily basis, COL is still buying.
2. Since COL keeps buying even the row with the fund manner, it means they need to buy, so take advantage when demand is there.
3. If someone is bidding for the rights to slaughter our goose and if lucky we get a fair portion of the egg but none after that, wont you want a premium to it? So never sell at a discount price.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Patient investor, well, everyone is free to air his opinion. You may continue to promote yours, and hopefully it could boost confidence and sustaining the price.

I enjoy reading this forum, but I shall continue to stay away from value traps and keeping my investment on more solid ground. Good luck to anyone wishing to sell at above NAV!

Posted by Patient Investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@observatory
No offence if you didnt get what I meant on "collaboration". Happy investing ^_^

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Another independent director resigned.

Datuk Mohd Nasir, after serving merely 28 months, tendered resignation “due to his other commitments which require his attention and time”

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3419228

Really? Such a busy person?

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The previous round of INED resignation happened in 2020.

On 24-Feb 2020 Madam Leong So Seh resigned citing “personal and health issue”

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3026283

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This was followed by the resignation of Darin Siah Li Mei on 3-Aug 2020, citing “health issue” too. Datin Siah joined the board only a year ago.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3074128

Was serving the ICAP board not conducive to personal health? :)

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

On Nov-24 of the same year, it was the turn for the Chairman Datuk Ng to resign, initially giving no reason.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3107685

But interestingly, an amended announcement was published a week later on Dec-1, with Datuk Ng’s resignation reason updated as “difference in opinion”.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3110297