dunno but i got a feel surely close 0.5 at least n above..dont get cheat by the report cos if the CPO & Production data is huge improvement vs 2015/16 there is no way they can keep increase the cost n hiding the sales figures & manipulate profit..i monitoring the production & cpo trend closely so can confirm sales for 2017 will beat 2015-2016 if they didn play around via report.. 2017 Projection of Production % % CRUDE OIL PALM 4,440.16 15.72 3,500.00 24.83 PALM KERNEL 948.51 18.41 900.00 40.99 FRESH FRUITS 28,572.31 12.76 25,000.00 19.19
CPO TREND 3,275.00 45.10 2,944.74 20.98 first 2mnths statistic for 2017 vs 2016 %
looks like a minor dead cat bouncing pattern. However, I see Rsawit is already long time building its base around 0.47. 0.47 serves a strong support. There is huge upper space for it to move but limited lower space. Worth to scope some.
RSWIT(5113) NTA 0.48 EPS 0 PERatio 0 ROE(%) negative 9.08 Par Value 0.50
TDM(2054) NTA 0.99 EPS 0.014 PERatio 48.92 Par value 0.20
CEPAT(2054) NTA 1.53 EPS 0.066 PERatio 12.42 ROE(%) 4.34 Par Value(RM) 1.00
Base on Valuation and fundamental,CEPAT(2054) is the most cheapest and under-valued to invest. CEPAT(2054) declared first and final dividend of 1.5 cents per share RSWIT(5113) and TDM(2054) declared zero dividend for all shareholders
Price/Book value for CEPAT(2054) only 0.535,less than 1 time is the super under-valued stock compared other two stocks as mention above
Wow cpo trend is moving up^^ now waiting for rsawit Feb production data to complete the next qtr prediction woohoo..I wonder where u wanna hide the sales for rsawit tiong~~该来的最终会来!!u can manage the company expenses but not the production n cpo movement!! I won't lose to u ^^
Anyway among plantation sector only 3 share below rm0.6 1)kretam-0.585 2)rsawit-0.495 3)aasia-0.245..so for me I would pick any of it while cpo avg is much higher than 2016 n looking good at 2017:) I don't really care how bad the internal company is..cos even lousy share also will shoot up so time will tell^^ the production shd be out this few days I can see more clearly how next qtr movement^^
hahahahaha lolll..i more on the potential gap which will increase on the shareprice which will bring me higher % of margin^^ eg rsawit 0.49 increase to 0.55 n above not a hard thing (10%+) if for dutch lady etc 10% if too far away rm7 at least the gap:) for me i dont mind negative as we all know they manipulate the cost but cpo trend n production highly unlikely can manipulate much so turnover will show the fact:)
i predicted the EL Nino effect cleared and production is improved the turnover for 2017 will be new high n break 300Mil at least avg turnover per qtr around 75Mil (Avg last 2 qtr showing above 75mil)..anyway just my point of view:)
I don't aim much 10% -15% is good enuf for 0.4-0.6 pyn type of shares..if below 0.2 easily more than 15%^^ anyway quite weird how come the monthly production data still haven out yet cant do my satistic..dam it wui tiong wanna hide production data till when?almost mid of mnth d I go report to mpoc/lhdn baru tau:p
Yea awesome production as per predicted..here we go with the fact on Turnover Jan-Feb 2017 vs 2016....Jan production average for 3 types (Crude Palm Oil,Kernel,Fresh Fruit) increase 15%+ & CPO price increase 45% vs 2016 , Feb production avg increase 38%+ & CPO price increase 20+% vs 2016!!!whoever haven buy better buy now at 0.5 promotion price:) most of plantation stocks in uptrend rsawit will be too for sure^^
I roughly read through the cash flow receivable impairment around 12 m book sit in 20m which means all only 8 m can collected . Based on the cash flow 76for armotisation +17m for interest expenses. Only with 100 m of sales the co barely made some profit exclude one off impairment of written off asset and receivable.
Some companies don't really rely on report on the share movement rsawit is one of it..so don't put so big afford on the Net Profit which we all know is manipulate as per expected..so turnover/cpo trend/production data are those info that we need..anyway just my point of view la cos I saw many companies in red but still fly high wf no reason so Wat do u said n market is not 1+1=2 unless u go for blue chip^^
Kahsoon : i wont said you should or not but for plantation is about the timing u enter..since i enter rsawit i wont hardsell it just that i would say plantation you may choose the lowest price stocks buy n hold bit:) from what i see cpo trend is high vs 2016 and also production overall improve vs 2016 so any plantation stocks buy surely will make profit:) plantation & steel for 2017 O&G perhaps trend coming too tats why i buy Reach Warrant (Holding) and Pantech previously (Technical play)^^
Yea just top up lower down my breakeven n increase my volume indirectly go for bigger % play:) I sold aasia for minor profit d but is ok to hold still can break through 0.3^^
Ya agree is pump n dump therefore I do all this company stock n cpo analysis n keep top up till it fly n dump wf huge profit^^ the latest data out d seem like out beat last 2 yrs production good sign for next qtr on June'17..probably end of Apr/early of may will hv movement:)
Kahsoon: u ride on the high price..the time I enter when it is around 0.16-0.165..last wk u ask me I told u is quite high d when at 0.185-0.19 range but can try if u want..anyway the company is good base/cash flow/nta..
ok done update my worksheet on the production etc..here we goes..Overall Production & CPO trend vs 2016 1Q as mention :1)Crude Oil Palm production increase 46% 2) Palm Kernel increase 66.5% 3) Fresh Fruits increase 20.9% 4) CPO Price increase 24.72%...as from the data shown i would said Rsawit Q1 turnover will break new high for sure and turn superp green too^^ especially export data is increase significantly in Msia which mostly will beneficial to the company forex gain as well..stay tight and tighten seat belt^^
Slow movement type of share & indirectly allow us to pump consistently n draw down breakeven and once bright side coming will see the movement..i been monitoring since feb & keep buying at lower prices & collecting the data which 1Qtr for this company will surely break at least 90Mil close eyes new high for their record over this 2 years..from my accounting view point last qtr heavy lose mainly due to one purpose which they want most of the heavy expenses pump into 2016 financial year end (2016 already bad year so let it bad) therefore 2017 new year end will be beating estimate:) 1Qtr comparison for turnover 2014 - 59Mil (2Mil Profit) , 2015 - 34Mil (-12Mil Loses), 2016 - 43Mil (-14Mil loses), 2017 with strong CPO + production i would say 100 % beat 2014-2016^^
As what I predict in accounting wise they let 2016 full year bad shape shit till the bottom..so this coming 1st qtr will be many fold vs last year for sure just buy n hold:)
Ya i m an accountant..not really pro la just use simple data n fact and apply on share market..if the share haven move then i will keep accumulate cos i do homework etc so no scare:)
ryan762, admired your professional. You are right! Because Jtiasa posted strong QR!
I still in the midst of average my cost because I bought some when the price was 65cents previously. So I have no choice to buy as much as I can afford at this price to average my cost
Ya improve a lot but bit down why still red T.T..anyway with such improvement I would give the price stand at least back to 0.52-0.55 lvl perhaps?won't be too much kua:) 2017 if annual view surely at least 60%-70% improve vs 2016..
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ryan7642
1,998 posts
Posted by ryan7642 > 2017-03-01 15:38 | Report Abuse
dunno but i got a feel surely close 0.5 at least n above..dont get cheat by the report cos if the CPO & Production data is huge improvement vs 2015/16 there is no way they can keep increase the cost n hiding the sales figures & manipulate profit..i monitoring the production & cpo trend closely so can confirm sales for 2017 will beat 2015-2016 if they didn play around via report..
2017 Projection of Production
% %
CRUDE OIL PALM 4,440.16 15.72 3,500.00 24.83
PALM KERNEL 948.51 18.41 900.00 40.99
FRESH FRUITS 28,572.31 12.76 25,000.00 19.19
CPO TREND 3,275.00 45.10 2,944.74 20.98
first 2mnths statistic for 2017 vs 2016 %
Happy investing^^