KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures staged a turnaround on Tuesday to notch modest gains as traders grew bullish on more pronounced forecasts of lower production.
The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.3 percent to 2,477 ringgit ($567.79) per tonne at the end of the trading day. It earlier fell as much as 0.5 percent.
Traded volume stood at 42,607 lots of 25 tonnes each.
"Lower production in January and February is very prominent," said a palm trader in Kuala Lumpur.
"By March, if prices remain where it is now, the export tax for crude palm oil will kick in. Thus, buyers will buy before that happens."
Malaysia imposes a crude palm oil export tax when prices go above 2,250 ringgit per tonne. The tax starts from 4.5 percent and can reach a maximum of 8.5 percent.
Palm oil production in top producers Malaysia and Indonesia is seen taking a hit this year due to the dry weather impacts of the El Nino, which reduces fresh fruit yields and lowers crude palm oil production.
Malaysian output is expected to decline marginally to 19.8 million tonnes in 2016, Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World, said at a palm oil economic review and seminar on Tuesday.
He added that production from top producer Indonesia will, however, rise slightly to 34 million tonnes.
Palm oil may seek a support at 2,455 ringgit per tonne and then retest the resistance at 2,495 ringgit, said Wang Tao, Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.
In competing vegetable oils, the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.1 percent.
KUALA LUMPUR: Indonesia will export lesser palm oil this year as it uses more of the commodity at home to blend into biodiesel, an industry group said, putting the country on track for its first drop in overseas sales of the tropical oil in five years.
The world’s top producer and exporter of palm oil is seen shipping out 23-24 million tonnes of the edible oil this year, said Fadhil Hasan, executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), as much as 9 percent below year-ago levels.
Lower exports could propel further gains in benchmark palm oil futures that are currently near a three-week top of 2,495 ringgit ($570.16) per metric tons. Last year, prices rallied 10 percent on biodiesel demand hopes and worries of damage to yields from dryness linked to an ongoing El Nino weather event.
“Hopefully in 2016 (biodiesel consumption) will increase significantly,” GAPKI’s Hasan said at a palm oil economic review seminar in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday.
While Indonesia’s palm oil output this year will be higher than previously expected, given signs the El Nino is easing and as new plantations come online, exports will be less than 2015 because of domestic market absorption, he said.
Indonesia’s palm oil shipments have risen over the past few years, from 16.42 million metric tons in 2010/11 to 25.3 million metric tons last year, US Department of Agriculture data shows.
But the trend is likely to change this year with the country promoting the use of biodiesel to cut its oil import bill and to mop up its supplies of crude palm oil. Last year, Indonesia raised biodiesel subsidies and the minimum bio content in diesel fuel to 15 percent from 10 percent. Palm prices could climb to $580 to $600 per metric tons in 2016, Hasan said, although higher Indonesian output will cap gains.
He pegged the country’s palm oil output at 35 million metric tons this year, versus 32.5 million tonnes in 2015. GAPKI had earlier forecast output at 33.5 million metric tons for 2016. “Apparently we see that the El Nino now is easing, as some parts of Indonesia are seeing rain,” Hasan said.
“The expansion of Indonesian palm oil plantation in the last three to four years was big, around 500,000 hectares per year, so even if [production is] affected by El Nino, it will be compensated by new harvested crops.”
Palm output in Malaysia, the world’s No.2 producer, is also expected to rise, to 20.1 million metric tons in 2016 from 19.96 million metric tons a year ago, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Tuesday.
RS is building a big round bottom around .465 - .600, this may be the end of the 5yrs bear market for RS once it breakout of .600. Let's wait for second trial of breakout.
Loss before taxation increased to RM31.6 million compared to RM5.2mil pre-tax loss recorded in 2014’s corresponding quarter. This was mainly due to higher administrative cost resulted from the provision of impairment loss amounting to RM19.69 million on investment in an associate, which was required in tandem with the low average FFB price in 2015 can anyone know... which "impairment loss amounting to RM19.69 million on investment in an associate" do they refer here ,,,
A rising tide lifts all boats. So all plantation stocks will rise in unison. How much or by how many percent we won't know until then. There might be surprises when Mr Market turned crazy and chase some up higher than others. Also syndicates join in to goreng. All must very careful then and don't get carried away. For now it is still safe to buy Oil Palm counters.
Please be careful..I dont think plantioon is a good buy. Look at the production. The cpo price increase due to low production. If the production keep dropping, the increase in cpo price only enough to compensate the low production. Please check monthly FFB production announcement.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
mudevil7
49 posts
Posted by mudevil7 > 2016-01-06 09:34 | Report Abuse
too risky to buy at 0.63?