The global mkts hv been surrounded by hidden mines & not hiddengem, that might explode at any moment of time.
If v deceive ourself into thinking that the global economy is going to hv a happy landing somehow, u r going to get blindsided by the coming SUDDEN STORM.
V hv to watch closely the yield on 10 year US Treasuries praying that it will not exceed 3.50% or else v shall b heading for the worst financial crisis in modern human history.
When the yield on 10 year US Treasuries goes up, it is bad for the US economy becos it pushes long-term interest rates up. When interest rates rise, it constricts the flow of credit that is absolutely essential to the debt-based system.
In addition, higher interest rates could easily precipitate another housing crash. Higher yields will push long-term borrowing cost for US consumers n businesses; n mortgage rates will rise resulting in higher cost of borrowing & liquidity will be tightened thereby affecting the equity mkt.
Low interest rates r good for economic activity which is good for the stock mkt. When interest rates rise, that is bad for economic activity n bad for the stock mkt. The US stock mkt already seems ripe for a hugh adjustment n rising interest rates could gv it a hugh extra push in a negative direction.
As a result of uncertainties in the global mkt, it is advisable to apply the 'TOUCH & GO' formulae, reducing the risk of cash being locked & providing the necessary bullets to recoup our earlier losses or additional bonuses to our profit margins.
Hafiz Millip I seldom watch movie but always reserve my precious time exploring the FA & TA of stocks that I intended to accumulate when the dust has settled n most importantly an indepth study on the global market technical analysis for the past, present & future n shall share with all our valued i3investor readers, sifu, brothers & sisters, friends, etc.
let mkt forces detect the bottom in the mean time we as small fishes just stay sideline & watch the show no point trying to buy at the lowest what we need is to ride on the next uptrend when it comes. this way our hard earn money won't be stuck. the currency weakness is due to unwinding of carry trades not an outright attack like in 1997-98 & it will take sometime for what ever reasons, sep to mid oct is seasonally a weak mths for stock mkt worldwide also don't underestimate this downtrend cos u can get burnt
Conclusion : Nobody knows... Market up and down ...................Rise of Interest rate just temporary pullback...but good for long term.. it is impossible market up everyday.
agreed also. i'm not pro in this field but i think hafiz have a good point. this crisis is not like 1998. CI down before at 16++ before we went up and maintain for quite a while. it's normal that CI up and down.. but like many others said, as long as the fundamental is good, then no worry. just heard good news from my friend working there. project will start before end of this year. dont know whether they will announce it or not.
Posted by Hafiz Millip > Aug 24, 2013 08:53 PM | Report Abuse
How can i forget, on 31th july pantech down to 99 cents...same story..tapering...funny how tapering has been most fear word in bourses...but pantechin 2 week up to 1.11. I dont know if you guys notice but the saledown this time not much in volume but more affected financial stocks like cimb, maybank and ambank. In fact this time foreign selldown very mild compare to may, june or july --------- hafizh where do u get your last statement? haha u're absolutely wrong ..foreigners has never sell as big as last week and as big as this month.. yesterday they were net sellers more than RM 600m , the day before they were net sellers > RM 1b and a week before this bearish week they were net selling > RM2b... i don't think u know the meaning of 'mild' except mild 7 may be haha
The FBM KLCI is likely to move slightly higher next next week on technical rebound amid positive economic data.
The key index is expected to trade with an immediate target level of 1,740 following the mild reversal of the global stocks.
Affin Investment Bank vice president and head of retail research, Dr Nazri Khan, said he expected selling momentum to subside on rotational play biased towards small-capitalised stocks and Bursa Malaysia's resilience and defensive appeal.
He said portfolio rebalancing with institutional funds positioning ahead of the tabling of Budget 2014 in October would also help boost the local bourse.
"Since hitting a new high in May, the local index has declined 5.8 per cent which is an ideally healthy for a correction," Nazri told Bernama.
The FBM KLCI hit a high of 1,826.22-level on May 6, boosted by a buying spree in the heavyweights, after the 13th General Election.
Nazri said the weakness in Bursa Malaysia would be temporarily stretched given the oversold market situation.
"We must caution, however, that oversold situation does not suggest that a final bottom has been seen as there is no selling climax yet to suggest a medium-term bottom," he said.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the FBM KLCI fell 67.17 points to 1,721.07 from 1,788.24 last Friday.
The Finance Index dived 802.98 points to 16,242.83, Industrial Index depreciated 107.32 points to 2,907.58 and the Plantation Index dropped 217.01 points to 8,101.72.
The FBM Emas Index eased 518.53 points to 11,958.82 and the FBMT100 Index went down 499.78 points to 11,701.19.
The FBM Mid 70 Index declined 758.05 points to 13,574 and the FBM Ace Index lost 233.38 points to 5,250.41.
Weekly turnover rose to 11.571 billion shares valued at RM14.206 billion from 10.335 billion shares valued at RM8.972 billion last week.
Main market volume increased to 8.893 billion units worth RM13.731 billion from 7.499 billion units worth RM8.474 billion previously.
Warrants surged to 419.613 million shares valued at RM41.203 million from 160.223 million shares valued at RM18.305 million last week.
The ACE market volume fell to 2.248 billion units worth RM426.08 million from 2.632 billion units worth RM1.395 million last Friday.-- Bernama
Our FBM KLCI will further consolidate in the coming mths due to the following:=
1)Increased outflow of foreign funds in this region.
2)Further currency depreciation in the coming weeks. The main threat is coming fr INDIA & INDONESIA.
3)Threat of increase yield in bonds that will affect our interest rates. The 10 year bond yields r soaring across the region in the past weeks n if not contained will provide bigger threat to the real economy.
4)There is no firm policy guidance fr Central Banks in the region including Malaysia n majority r facing limited monetary tools to combat the fragile mkt condition. As a result, they r intervening in the foreign exchange mkt by selling dollars to prop up their own currency. Even our Bank Negara sold several billion USD to prop up our Ringgit last week, causing jitteries among the foreign investors.
5)We r going into the 2nd stage of the CRISIS n this is where volatility in financial mkts is heightened. Events can take a turn for the worst in a short period of time where the contagion effect can spread like wild fire to Malaysia n other region.
Hence it is advisable for investors not to accumulate stocks for long-term strategy temporarily n to be more on the safe side, the 'HIT & RUN' formulae at the right timing shall b more applicable during this period of uncertainties. Furthermore, it will reduce the high risk of being 'burnt', cash flow being tightened & will not hv the funds available when the 'BEAR' has been slaughtered by the 'BULL'.
Always remember 'CASH IS KING' during a crisis. GOOD LUCK & GOD BLESS.
The ringgit is expected to recover next week in line with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI on better economic environment.
Affin Investment Bank vice president and head of retail research, Dr Nazri Khan, said despite the weaker local gross domestic product as well as selloff seen in Bursa Malaysia and ringgit, the local market was still holding up better than other emerging economies' currencies, including Indonesia, India and Brazil.
"We expect selling momentum to subside riding on Bursa Malaysia's defensive appeal, resilient current account surplus (RM2.6 billion as at second quarter 2013) and its lower vulnerability to foreign investor withdrawals," he told Bernama.
Meanwhile, Alliance Research economist, Manokaran Mottain, said despite the recent volatility in the ringgit, the research house would maintain its target for the year at 3.12 per US dollar.
"The depreciating trend was evident across most emerging markets' currencies on the back of the recent speculation regarding the scaling down of quantitative easing in the US," he said.
For the week just-ended, the ringgit eased against the greenback at 3.2990/3020 from 3.2748/2778 last Friday.
The local currency was higher against the Singapore dollar at 2.5777/5809 from 2.5784/5818 last week and appreciated against the yen at 3.3381/3414 from 3.3588/3632 last Friday.
It was weaker against the British pound at 5.1544/1600 from 5.1218/1275 last Friday and easier against the euro at 4.4088/4131 from 4.3676/3719 last week.
Short-term rates are expected to remain stable next week as Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to continue to intervene in the market to mop up excess liquidity, dealers said.
The market is expected to be flushed with funds and the central bank would call for tenders to absorb the surplus funds, a dealer said.
For the week just-ended, the overnight, one-, two- and three-week rates were flat at 2.92 per cent, 2.97 per cent, 3.01 per cent and 3.04 per cent respectively.
BNM intervened on a daily basis to mop up excess funds by conducting conventional, repo, Al-Wadiah and Commodity Murabahah Programme tenders.
It also called for late tenders to reduce the surplus and offered repo tenders on a daily basis.
The liquidity surplus in the conventional operations during the week fell to RM15.466 billion, and in the Islamic system it declined to RM1.853 billion.
The ringgit opened higher against the US dollar in early trading today, buoyed by better demand for the local currency, a dealer said.
At 9.18am, the ringgit was traded marginally higher at 3.2940/2970 against the greenback from last Friday's closing at 3.2990/3020.
However, the local unit was traded mixed against other major currencies.
The ringgit was slightly firmer against the Singapore dollar at 2.5750/5776 from 2.5777/5809 on Friday but was flat against the Japanese yen to 3.3381/3428 from 3.3381/3414 last week.
Against the British pound, the local currency appreciated to 5.1314/1374 from 5.1544/1600 on Friday and against the euro it was traded lower at 4.4097/4144 from 4.4088/4131 last week.
HwangDBS Vickers Research said there is another chance for the key index to stage technical rebound and pull away from the immediate support line of 1,720 today.
The index recovered to a high of 1,729.86 before retreating subsequently to close at 1,721.07 on Friday.
HwangDBS said investors' sentiments would likely get a lift from better external vibes ahead.
"This comes as key US stock indices rose between 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent on Friday in response to weak housing sales data, which in turn has fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve might not taper its monetary stimulus initiatives anytime soon," it said in a note.
bye bye 0.99 today next stop 0.90 sure those who did not take profit above 1.00 sure red eyes it's sad to see your profit disappear maybe next time u learnt from your mistakes
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
hiddengem
1,186 posts
Posted by hiddengem > 2013-08-23 09:23 | Report Abuse
Bravery will b rewarded handsomely. SANG-JERO good luck.