Posted by perangbrown > 2019-11-21 13:35 | Report Abuse

Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) expects oil palm planters to report flattish-to-lower third quarter 2019 earnings as output recovery is offset by lower palm oil prices.

However, selected Sarawak-based planters such as Ta Ann Holdings Bhd and Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd are likely to report better quarter-on-quarter core earnings on stronger output, the bank-backed research firm noted in a recent report.

"Integrated players will fare relatively better, benefiting from low feedstock costs,” said Maybank IB.

Investors should look forward to earnings recovery in 2020. Valuations of small-mid caps are low on an enterprise value/planted ha basis and present an accumulation opportunity

Posted by Mabel > 2019-11-21 20:28 | Report Abuse

This is really brilliant

Well done!

Posted by Mabel > 2019-11-21 20:29 | Report Abuse

13% increase in price!

Posted by yfchong > 2019-11-21 21:34 | Report Abuse

Feb fcpo 2680.....

Posted by Sarawakians > 2019-11-22 09:42 | Report Abuse

RM 3 cannot sustain? Will PH suffer loss like last week Tanjung Piai come 2021?

Posted by yfchong > 2019-11-22 09:56 | Report Abuse

Holding power so so... Maybe qtr 3 results

Posted by Sarawakians > 2019-11-22 09:59 | Report Abuse

RM 3 hard to maintain how abt RM 4-5? Must vote back BN?

Posted by yfchong > 2019-11-22 10:06 | Report Abuse

Country Road take me home.

Posted by yfchong > 2019-11-22 10:32 | Report Abuse

Running down?

Posted by cpo_ > 2019-11-22 21:46 | Report Abuse

Maybank TP how much Mabel?

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-22 22:24 | Report Abuse

TP RM2.9 based on 17x 2020 PER (with RM2.3K/T for 2020)

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-22 22:24 | Report Abuse

Now RM2.7K/tonnes

Posted by 5354_ > 2019-11-23 17:45 | Report Abuse

RM 2.7K fair TP how much?

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-23 19:53 | Report Abuse

no idea...mib's earnings projection for 2020 and 2021 is RM98M (based on RM2.3K per tonne) and RM159M (based on 2.4K per tonne) respectively.
so you figure out yourself.

Posted by 5354_ > 2019-11-23 22:42 | Report Abuse

Every RM 100 CPO increase profit up RM 60 million? 2.7 K per tonne meaning profit RM 340 M?

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-23 23:13 | Report Abuse

@5354 ,not exactly like that, you need to vew the montly crude palm oil production volume, some estates have high yield, while the other lower yield.；and also the planted acreage size of the plantations

Posted by yfchong > 2019-11-24 09:58 | Report Abuse

Waiting for the Q results release

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-24 11:37 | Report Abuse

coming Q result reflects only ,july ,august, sept, 3 months trading result; and you need to account CPO price only begun to climb sometime in August, so there is a need to infer accordingly,and the 4Q should be more spectacular.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-24 12:22 | Report Abuse

Yes. Enning22 is right. But we invest this share beyond the current quarterly result. Share price always ahead and reflect the future earnings

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2019-11-24 21:54 | Report Abuse

Over priced. Sell TP 2

Posted by Mabel > 2019-11-25 07:48 | Report Abuse

Udara Segar sudah kembali,
Seronok melihat SOP balik menari,
Memang rugi kalau tak membeli,
Confirm bolih makan Lobsters di sini

Posted by Sarawakian60 > 2019-11-25 09:35 | Report Abuse

PH forgets us? How abt vote back BN in 2021?

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-25 11:08 | Report Abuse

no way, thief politicians are good for nothing , ....you know the rest.

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-25 11:11 | Report Abuse

what happen if cpo price touches 3000 ringgit per tonnes??

Posted by yfchong > 2019-11-25 11:53 | Report Abuse

Excitement... N toss up

Posted by cpo_ > 2019-11-25 14:37 | Report Abuse

>RM 2700/tn now, RM 3K in 2020?

Posted by cpo_ > 2019-11-25 14:39 | Report Abuse

SOP RM 3.5-4?

Posted by enning22 > Nov 25, 2019 11:11 AM | Report Abuse
what happen if cpo price touches 3000 ringgit per tonnes??

Posted by runroadtokl > 2019-11-25 16:15 | Report Abuse

is time to goreng CPO counter

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-25 16:45 | Report Abuse

if cpo can pass through 3000 ringgit, and stay there for very long period of time, SOP should go beyond 4.00 ringgit. but please monitor the indonesia B30 biodessel program ,mandated jan 2020, this is decisive factor which can deplete all excessive oil stock . B30 would take up about 9-10 million ton of oil , as Indonesia is a large country, and certain amount is for export market. You can refer past year record ,when cpo was 3000, sop market is 4 ringgit plus, as the annual profit could reach 200 millions a year.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-25 17:45 | Report Abuse

If cpo hit 3000 sop earnings will beyond 300m

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-25 21:24 | Report Abuse

https://en.tempo.co/read/1276175/pertamina-set-to-distribute-b30-biodiesel-fuel

Posted by Sarawakian8 > 2019-11-26 10:13 | Report Abuse

4-5 in 2020 we vote PH in coming state election.

Posted by cpo_ > 2019-11-27 12:17 | Report Abuse

CPO up today. Revisit 2700 and finally 3K?

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-28 09:51 | Report Abuse

《油世界》：全球大豆产量将大幅下滑，明年上半年植物油价格需要上涨
2019-11-28

汉堡11月27日消息：据德国汉堡的行业刊物《油世界》称，2019/20年度全球大豆产量将出现四年来的首次大幅下滑。

油世界预计全球大豆产量为3.39亿吨，比2018/19年度减少1900万吨。

2019/20年度全球油菜籽产量预计只有6180万吨，比上年至少减少280万吨。

油世界称，2019/20年度全球油菜籽减产主要是因为欧盟和澳大利亚的产量进一步减少。

2019/20年度（10月到次年9月）全球棕榈油产量预计比上年仅仅增加100万吨或1.3%。

报告称，2019/20年度马来西亚棕榈油产量可能同比减少90万吨。

2019/20年度全球8种植物油产量可能只增加290万吨，相比之下，上年度同比增加480万吨。

2020年1月到6月期间植物油价格需要上涨，才能有效调配需求。

油世界预计2019/20年度（10月到次年9月）8种植物油库存将减少250万吨，大部分降幅集中在棕榈油。中国的发展形势造成植物油市场利多，大豆和豆粕市场利空。

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-28 18:22 | Report Abuse

Q3 2019 result just released

Posted by 5354_ > 2019-11-29 09:56 | Report Abuse

Q4 even better QR since CPO >RM 2700?

Posted by 5354_ > 2019-11-29 09:56 | Report Abuse

Take avg CPO RM 2500 still >20% more than Q3?

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 15:38 | Report Abuse

- Jokowi saat membuka Kompas 100 CEO Forum di Hotel Ritz Carlton, Kuningan, Jakarta, Kamis (28/11/2019). "Artinya CPO (Crude Palm Oil) kita gunakan sendiri untuk biodiesel, biofuel. Kenapa harus tarung dengan Uni Eropa karena kita di-banned, didiskriminasi CPO kita? Kita pakai sendiri saja," kata Jokowi. Baca juga: Jokowi: RI Tak Akan Tinggal Diam atas Diskriminasi Kelapa Sawit Ia mengatakan, penyerapan CPO besar-besaran untuk dijadikan B-20, B-30 , hingga B-100 akan mendongkrak harga sawit. Dengan demikian, Jokowi mengatakan para petani sawit juga akan menikmatinya. "Akan kelihatan harga CPO 1-2 tahun kelihatan.
Sekarang sampai berapa nantinya B-30 di Januari dan B-100 akan angka berapa (harganya naik). Artinya petani sawit kita akan menikmati harga yang baik," lanjut dia.

Posted by Mabel > 2019-11-29 15:41 | Report Abuse

Still checking the latest figures. However in 2016, export revenue generated from the oil palm industry was RM 67.6 billion, which equals to 6.1% of total Malaysia's GDP. As a sustainable crop, the oil palm plays a critical role in helping to feed more than three billion people in over 200 countries.

Does anyone of you the latest figure?

We are doing a great job feeding more than 3 billion people in over 200 countries..

Syabas!

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 15:41 | Report Abuse

sop next level testing 3.50 , not a bad try.

Posted by Mabel > 2019-11-29 15:48 | Report Abuse

To 3,50 with loves...

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 15:52 | Report Abuse

@Mabel kindly look up statistics from grower association --http://mpoc.org.my/

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2019-11-29 19:34 | Report Abuse

Cost cut and mechanisation lowered production cost We estimate SOP’s 9M19 all-in cost of production for its upstream ops at MYR1,665/t (-8% YoY). We understand the lower YoY cost was due to cost cutting measures undertaken and introduction of more mechanisation to counter rising wage bills. As for fertiliser, we understand SOP has applied ~90% of its full-year fertiliser requirement in 9M19 (9M18: ~85%).

By mib

Finally cost cut measure taken by sop...very positive sign

Posted by Up_down > 2019-11-29 20:13 | Report Abuse

Bursa has been busy staging theme-play party this year. Technology theme and follow by Power theme and the latest one Plantation theme. Hope Plantation theme to last longer until 2020.

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 20:33 | Report Abuse

refer news report above,President Jokowi said ,if cpo price don't go up, he will put up B100 diessel program, that is very encouraging.

Posted by Up_down > 2019-11-29 20:43 | Report Abuse

Indonesia is an energy imported country. To increase Biodiesel from B30 to B40 would reduce 2.5 million ton of CPO in a year. Indonesia is expected to produce more than 54 million ton CPO this year. The annual savings from imported fossil oil costs more than USD 1 billion. Indonesia is actually making a right move to stabilized CPO price.

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 20:45 | Report Abuse

10月中旬以来，棕榈油火了，涨停、新高轮番上演，市场炒作热情空前高涨。棕油上涨的主要动力来自于需求增加，供应减少。其中，需求增加的重点在于生物柴油使用的增加。在生物柴油的方面，对印尼B30可能缺乏补贴支撑运行的担忧引发了昨日午后棕榈油的跳水，但随后印尼能源部回应给市场吃下了一颗定心丸。

印尼能源部官员称，在明年1月开始实施B30项目后，政府将着手研究B50，雄心勃勃的计划减轻了市场对B30或不能顺利实施的担忧。在情绪及资金作用下，近期棕榈油及豆油走势呈现大跌大涨，令人有些无所适从。今日午后，国内三大油脂再度跳涨，其中棕油再度领涨。截止到14:16，1月合约连棕上涨166元或3.06%，连豆油上涨64元或1.03%，郑菜135或1.78%。

除了爆炒生物燃料概念，减产预期也是棕榈油走红的大推手。今年7至9月印马两国旱情严重，或将影响半年后的棕榈油产量。行业机构和分析师纷纷预测主产国减产，且将造成市场供应短缺。

当然，也有机构发出不同声音。以下为机构及行业分析师对棕榈油主产国产量的预估：

9月27日，油世界称2020年印尼棕榈油产量料为4600万吨，马来西亚产量预计将较2019年的2050万吨小幅下降；

10月11日，马来西亚财政部称，2020年产量料继续增至2220万吨；

11月7日，分析师Dorab Mistry称，2020年印尼棕榈油产量料增加100万吨，至4400万吨，马来西亚产量或下降100万吨至1930万吨；

11月21日，分析师James Fry称，印马两大主产国2020年产量增幅会微乎其微，随着生物柴油需求增加，市场可能出现供应缺口；

11月28日，马来西亚FGV控股公司称，2020年毛棕榈油产量将增加约1-1.5%。

Posted by Up_down > 2019-11-29 21:07 | Report Abuse

Indonesia implemented B30 is only part of the factor boosting CPO price higher. In fact, CPO price moves in tandem with soy oil price.

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 21:25 | Report Abuse

true,sometime it works this way, sometime they go independently, the reason is they compete for the same consumers market, and both products carry over stock/inventory is high,If either one ,or both,stock /inventory are low , then all go they own way.

Posted by enning22 > 2019-11-29 21:32 | Report Abuse

@up_down , please get your data accurate, indonesia production forecast to be 45million ton,not 54 million as you mentioned, B30 would take up according to estimate would be 8 to 9 million tonnes, currently program of B20 consumed 5-6 million tonnes.