life: every man on the street want to say they will also benefit from higher average selling price since JCY make profit guidance. If iam small HD component maker I will also say the same thing even though I may not benefit at all. Like I said just wait for the quarterly results for all these company to come out and see who will be caught with pants down.
btw: Increase in average selling price for HDD component producer is 10-20% only (from JCY profit guidance). The 50%-100% increase you are talking about is at retail level and have nothing to do with HDD component pricing at production level. If increase in average selling price is 50% to 100% at production level like you say, JCY should be worth RM20.00+ per share right now based on profit guidance.
atome7nine: Notion is too small a fish in HDD component making for JCY to even consider. somemore JCY already announced 80% of 300m capex will be used for buying more machine to increase production by up to 40%. why buy a smaller company with old machine when you can buy new machines.
JCY gonna buy Notion HDD Co. Since 2009, Notion wanted to move away from HDD(cut throat business) into more profitable SLR camera components & automotive(electronic braking). Therefore, now is the perfect time to sell to JCY. By Oct 2012, HDD business will return to norm i.e. price war. By then, NO chance JCY gonna want to buy Notion HDD. Last Aug 2010, JCY ended negotiations with Notion! Now's the perfect time for both Co.(i.e. win-win).
Big Thanks to Mr Lam, Life & Atom79. What I heard and read so far, JCY a better bet, because the can jump start(boost) production immediately, instead of buying new machines(take time). Like that, I buy more JCY shares ya.
JCY gets NOTHING(0), TYK Cap gets ENG & Advance Cap gets NOTION VTEC. TYK & AC are big winner at the end of the day. JCY only has HDD. ENG Tek & Notion are more diversified Company with huge customer base.
Dear all please PLEASE do homework b4 buy any stock, all our money is hardcore money! dont blindly believe what ppl say even including me! ppl won't pity u once u lose money @ in this world talk no need money 1 !!!!
Please go study total REVENUE EPS PE DEBT CONTRACT IN HAND and also PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT OF THE COMPANY B4 BUY!!
kongtl: NOTION + ENG market cap is much lower than JCY even Revenue @ i get the info from thier P&L report in bursa. please correct me if i am wrong And i also read the articles as below, how sure the take over price RM 2.5 confirmed? any insider news leaking out from TYK?
General Announcement Reference No CS-120104-D9C39 Company Name: JCY INTERNATIONAL BERHAD Stock Name : JCY Date Announced:04/01/2012 Type: Announcement Subject: OTHERS Description: JCY International Berhad - Profit Guidance for 1st Quarter of Year 2012 Announcement Details/Table Section :
Pursuant to Paragraph 9.03 of Listing Requirements and Paragraph 4.1 of the Corporate Disclosure Guidance issued by Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, the Board of Directors of JCY International Berhad ("JCY" or "the Company") wishes to inform the shareholders and potential investors that, having assessed the curently available information, the Group is likely to record an increase in net profit for the financial quarter ended 31 December 2011 of approximately 1,900% compared with the corresponding period in the previous financial year (period ended 31 December 2010, Net profit: RM7.5million) or 460% compared with the immediate preceding quarter (period ended 30 September 2011, Net profit: RM26.4million) due to the following reasons:-
1. Increase in Average Selling Prices caused by component shortages arising from the October 2011 floods in Thailand; 2. Effective product mix; 3. Appreciating US Dollar against RM; and 4. Continuous efficient cost management.
To cater for the increase in the component demands from the Companyâ??s major customers, the Board of Directors has approved a capital expenditure budget of approximately RM300 million over the next 24 months period, for expansion of its facilities in Malaysia, Thailand and China.
Barring any unforeseen factors, the Company expects to be able to increase its global market share of the HDD mechanical component industry over the next 24 months.
kongtl: sorry but from reading your comments you do not have any understanding of the companies and the industry.
"JCY also small player"-
Please have a look at the link you posted yourself http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/search/label/Notion) and under the NOtion article, have look at HDD Head to Head and compare the YOY revenue and profit. JCY YOY revenue/profit is 4 times more then eng tek and 8 times more then notion. for your reference JCY world market share for HDD component is about 40%. If you tell people JCY is small player they will be laughing at you.
"TYK Cap gets ENG & Advance Cap gets NOTION VTEC. TYK & AC are big winner at the end of the day"-
LOL, whoever buy eng tek and notion will be the big loser not winner. both companies are in serious trouble. If you do not believe me, wait for the quaterly results like i said.
This is old article from July 2011, 4 months before flood. They will be lucky if can find someone to even talk to them now about buying company.Dont be suprised if they running around desperately looking for buyers now. Will be lucky if can get someone to buy company for more then RM 1 per share now. If I was TYK, I will wait a few more quarter until the company is really in big trouble and buy at fire sale price, under 50c is even possible.Eng tek share price will drop like a rock when the quarterly results are out.
njue: then we are same boat, i will sell off anything above RM 1.5 ++ and buy back early march after is cd expired 5 days. Let see the coming result from JCY :) have a nice day ya
cimb tp : 4.60, hwng dbs tp:3.95. my charts tp 4.45- 5.00 end 2012..rev quarters end jun 2012 should triple..more upside coming soon..good luck. i just share my idea..up to u...tq
lamken: Whats your TP? What's all the rumors in the air bout JCY buying NOTION HDD? Both JCY & NOTION share are strong. Your expert opinion Please. Thank you.
atom7nine: Notion share strong because they are taking advantange of JCY good news. Have a look at the historical price chart for notion and eng tek, both the share price for these 2 company gone up abit in Jan since JCY profit guidance news (ppl thinking they will both benefit like JCY but the next few quarter result for these 2 company will show both in trouble due to flood). Both notion and engtek looking for buyer now before things get worse for them. I already confirm with source, JCY not even looking at notion right now becuase JCY using capex to buying new machines only. Notion and eng tek are speculation counter and will continue to take advantage of JCY good news until the quarter result out and many people will run. If you think you can make make money from notion on the speculation, then you can buy but very risky now because the quarter result can come out anytime this month.
TP for JCY is very hard to say. The current price is still very very cheap. The fair value for JCY should be alot more right now (RM 2.00+) based on profit guidance. But some the big player are waiting for JCY to release quartely result to confirm profit guidance before they buy. In short term should have no problem touching RM2.00 after quarter result out this month. JCY big man for sure will not let son issuer press mother price down otherwise will affect his valuation for Seagate takeover. In medium term, should be RM 4.00+ when Seagate takeover. Do some research into JCY and seagate, if Seagate buy JCY, it mean they will control supply chain to their competitor WD, because JCY supply more then 40% of world market for HDD component. JCY is in very special situation because who ever HDD maker buy them out will control world HDD prices. This counter will make many people rich in next few weeks/months.
kongtl: Your stupidity will make alot of ppl lose their hard earned money on this forum. please do not post here again. even if everybody listen to you on this forum and buy notion, the share price will not move even .05 sen because the only people can make the share price move is the big player funds, bankers etc. I post here only to help the small player make some money back, especially the ones who bought JCY during IPO price and lost alot of money. This will also be my last post as I do not have time to keep commenting. Good luck all.
Lamken: thanks for sharing, by the jus to share majority sales from WD @ Seagate contribute less than 30%. if really Seagate wanna go in JCY WD will "unhappy". Mayb this is the statergy using by JCY to get higher share price from WD. my 2 cents the take over price will not not less then IPO price @ My guess RM 1.6 +-
Yewkhian: Thanks 4 sharing too. When likely the takeover? 3months, 6months or a year time? Terima kasih. I too want people to make money. But you guys whom got info, Please contribute/share. kLSE very fast, people need quick answer.
kongtl: i need to correct my wording "take over" it mwean buy JCY stake not but take over the whole company. when i don't know but SC already send love letter to JCY. JCY boss have to reduce his stake, please go bursa malaysia for more info.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lamken
183 posts
Posted by lamken > 2012-01-29 14:10 | Report Abuse
life: every man on the street want to say they will also benefit from higher average selling price since JCY make profit guidance. If iam small HD component maker I will also say the same thing even though I may not benefit at all. Like I said just wait for the quarterly results for all these company to come out and see who will be caught with pants down.
btw: Increase in average selling price for HDD component producer is 10-20% only (from JCY profit guidance). The 50%-100% increase you are talking about is at retail level and have nothing to do with HDD component pricing at production level. If increase in average selling price is 50% to 100% at production level like you say, JCY should be worth RM20.00+ per share right now based on profit guidance.