Posted by PureBULL ... > Nov 16, 2020 5:32 AM | Report Abuse X
This is a good case study of a successful fund mgr who knows: PEPERTUAL GROWING STOCKS, the # 1 way to huge money in stocks He buys stocks owned by successful bizmen who will deliver BIG always.
All great winning stocks r cyclical. this mgr buys them in their growing years; yes our glove stocks r only into 1st 10 months young of fast growth. With this PANDEMIC on, glove stocks could continue growing for next 2-3 years...
fundamental is shit hahaha. Still talking about fundamental. TG nvr went up beyond 10 this pass 3 months. Supermax did not go beyond 11 this pass 3 months and yet still talking about fundamental
By the way not to offend people and to anger people, who wants to hold it for long term. With current situation almost everyone is looking for short term. Glove is not going to sustain for long. Politic unstable glove share drops, vaccine news glove share drops, dow jones drop leads to glove share drop. This only last for short term
Covid-19 vaccine dampens sentiment on glove counters in morning trade KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 16): Glove stocks were headed lower in Bursa Malaysia's morning trading session today due to the news flow of Covid-19 vaccine progress, which dampened sentiment on the counters. As at the time of writing, glove stocks were among the top losers today. At 11.53am, Hartalega Holdings Bhd, being the second top loser, was down 4.29% or 66 sen at RM14.72, bringing its market capitalisation lower to RM50.54 billion. It saw some 2.78 million shares traded. In the fourth place was Supermax Corp Bhd, which fell 5.24% or 46 sen to RM8.32, with a market value of RM22.72 billion. More than seven months after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak in China a “public health emergency of international concern”, the global economy continues to reel from the impact of the virus. Meanwhile, Top Glove Corp Bhd, which bought back 8.94 million or 0.72% of its shares for RM69.9 million in the open market last Friday, dropped 3.98% or 31 sen to RM7.47, valuing the stock at RM61.47 billion. The counter was the seventh biggest loser as at the time of writing. The smaller players were also not spared from the selling pressure. Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd lost 4.2% or 28 sen to RM6.38, Careplus Group Bhd fell 6.58% or 20 sen to RM2.84, and Comfort Gloves Bhd shed 4.71% or 19 sen to RM3.84. The Healthcare Index was dragged down by the glove stocks, declining by 1.75% or 69.68 points to 3,921.47. Last week, Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech announced that their experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective with no serious safety concerns based on initial trial results. They also estimated that they can roll out up to 50 million doses this year for 25 million people and produce 1.3 billion doses in 2021.
In understanding the past we may predict the future with higher level of accuracy. The discovery of COVID-19 vaccine is imminent. This fact obviously worries alot of glove stock investors as the sell down continues since the announcement of Pfizer's mRNA based vaccine a week back.
In this article, I present and compare the past performance of share price and QR of Topglov, Harta, Supermx & Kossan (btw all of this information is actually public info) .
1. We can see that prices of BIG 4 started to move up even before WHO declare H1N1 as pandemic. I guess this was where the smart money started to flow in.
2. For TOPGLOV, HARTA & SUPERMX, its share price move north aggrresively when WHO eventually declare world-wide pandemic on 11th June-09.
3. Now this is the part that is interesting, on 15th Sep 2009, FDA approved 4 vaccines (and finally the 5th one was on 16 Nov). At this point onwards, the share price of ALL 4 of them rallied more aggresive compare to the time there was no vaccine. The moving up lasted between 8 to 10 months with some correction in between.
4. Fundamentally, if you see the QR reported during the pandemic window, it DOES NOT reflect as strong PAT /margin as what they do now:
a) From at least TOPGLOV & SUPERMX QR notes, they did not indicate of foward selling. Today their inventories are oversold until end 2021.
b). During this period latex prices & crude oil (butaine) were higher than they were today. MYR was also stronger. Hence impact on PAT.
c). Today the glove produciton volume are at least double of where they were in 2009 e.g: Topglove only produce aprpox 30 bil pcs/year, now they are reaching 100 bil.
d). This is common knowledge that COVID-19 hits the world worst than H1N1. Therefore global demand have surged multiple times that of H1N1 era.
5. Eventually when enough masses had been innoculated and WHO declares the end of H1N1 pandemic, prices corrected itself. the QR which all BIG 4 release reflected the decrease in revenue (except HARTA which lasted a while longer).
So the question to ask yourself if you are investing in glove today or you are deciding to cut loss is this....why do you think the price move up north stronger after H1N1 vaccine is approved by FDA in Sep-09? Will history repeat itself? Does the discovery of vaccine or the anticipation that it will be available in Dec or Q1 2021 reduces the demand for glove? What does history teach us?
"5. Eventually when enough masses had been innoculated and WHO declares the end of H1N1 pandemic, prices corrected itself. the QR which all BIG 4 release reflected the decrease in revenue (except HARTA which lasted a while longer). "
invested in Harta, you can sleep well at night ! Their ASP is the last to go up,... and also their ASP is the last to go down !! Invested in big cap glove companies is better than small cap glove companies or other new set-ups which can only start to produce gloves when the ASP is dropping (by that time those new set-ups could be operating at thin profit margin or even at loss !) Big glove cos can command the pricing as their cost is very low (Harta the lowest) and could easily cut price to kill off the small companies or new set-ups !!
IBs are shorting the glove counters everyday to reduce their losses when the CWs expire. Be careful, buy the the lows only in the afternoon session everyday.
Govt has communicated with 10 Covid-19 vaccine producers, says Khairy KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 16): The government has communicated with 10 Covid-19 vaccine producers following a notification by the World Health Organization (WHO) that there are 11 Covid-19 vaccine candidates in phase 3 clinical trial (as of Nov 13). Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said communications with eight of the producers was made directly, while the other two was through the Covid-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX). He said some of the discussions are in the final stage and an official announcement would be made when everything has been finalised. “The discussion covers aspects of cooperation in various stages of vaccine development such as R&D (research and development), exchange of scientists, fill and finish development (transfer of technology, logistics, cold chain), including the purchase of vaccines (finished products) as a guarantee of access to vaccine supply for the country," he said during the questions for oral answers session in the Dewan Rakyat today. He was responding to a question from Chan Foong Hin (Pakatan Harapan-Kota Kinabalu) who wanted to know whether the ministry had made any order to import vaccines from companies from China, such as Cansino, Sinovac and Sinopharm, or the UK, such as AstraZeneca, and whether the ministry would set the order of priority for Covid-19 vaccination as being done in Indonesia. Khairy said through participation in COVAX, Malaysia would have access to the supply of Covid-19 vaccine of 10% of the country's population and the government was working to get another 60% to meet the national immunisation target for herd immunity to up to 70 per cent of the country's population. The government, he said, was also working to get vaccine access as early as the first or second quarter of next year depending on the approval from the National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency (NPRA). He said the NPRA will ensure that a vaccine passes the stipulated strict conditions, covering its safety and effectiveness through data on the clinical trial that was conducted. Meanwhile, on the list of immunisation priorities, Khairy said the Special Committee on Covid-19 Vaccine Supply Access (JKJAV), set up on Oct 14 , had agreed to divide it into three groups, namely the frontliners, involving staff of the Ministry of Health (MoH) and agencies not under the MoH, such as the police, the Malaysian Armed Forces, Immigration Department and others, in the first group. The second is for high-risk groups, such as individuals with co-morbid and seniors citizens, and the third involves other adult population. Details of the groups are being made and the announcement is expected to be made during the first quarter of next year.
Tough and not easy to grab the low lying fruits (whenarmada) ikan bilis like me will take a calculated risk { soft approach} to buy what the. arket trend. It's risky but better to fight against the market favour. Just my own view
yes, agree. probably this time round, due to a lot of internet fundamental courses , a lot of new traders like to trade based on fundamental, if share price is based on fundamental, i guess no one will become loser in the stock market.
Ruth Karron, who heads the Center for Immunization Research at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, notes that neither Moderna nor the Pfizer/BioNTech study evaluated whether the vaccine prevented infections as well as symptomatic disease, which is key to controlling the spread of the virus. “The data we have are that these vaccines protect you against severe illness, but it doesn’t mean that you can’t get infected and give it to your patient, your neighbor, your customer, or whomever,” Karron says. But she also says of the Moderna result: “Wow, fantastic, amazing.”
b) buy when there is already a bottom of some sort
Vaccine no vaccine - the world has changed forever. I you don't agree stay out. If you agree look to buy at the previous' low's when it corrected.
Yes we have a vaccine - no one knows the side effects yet. No one knows how it effects the population from different part of the world. No one knows if one can get reinfected or infect others post vaccination. So decide.
At least Glove Companies will not be so stuck up to their buyers moving forward.
This year’s darlings — glove stocks — have been under downward pressure in recent weeks as the market is factoring the downside risks of these manufacturers. JF Apex research head Lee Chung Cheng, who has a hold call on the sector, said the window of opportunity for glove stocks is getting slimmer as it is approaching the time when the COVID-19 vaccine is rolling out early next year.“Most probably, the market will start cyclical play, banking on economic recovery themes. You can see investors are switching out from healthcare to the recovery plays,” he told theedgemarkets.com.While the glove makers' share prices have come off from their peaks, he opined they are still trading slightly on the upside.The latest news is that Moderna Inc announced that its experimental vaccine is 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 based on interim data from a late-stage trial, becoming the second US drugmaker to report results that far exceed expectations. This came on the heels of news that Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's experimental vaccine is more than 90% effective pending more safety data and regulatory review. On top of that, in China, there are five vaccines that have entered late-stage human tests overseas. Such newsflow continued to weigh on glove makers and led to a massive selling pressure on the stocks. Hartalega Holdings Bhd fell 88 sen or 5.72% to RM14.50, making it the top loser today. If compared with its record high of RM20.50 on Aug 3, the stock has declined 29.27%. Supermax Corp Bhd is the second top loser, falling 78 sen or 8.88% to RM8. The counter has lost 32.72% from its record high of RM11.89 on Aug 6. Top Glove is also one of the top fourth losers, declining 58 sen or 7.46% to RM7.20. The counter has fallen 25% from its recent peak of RM9.60 on October 19. Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd was also one of the top 10 losers, dropping 40 sen or 6.01% to RM6.26 today. It has declined 34.72% from its peak of RM9.59 on August 6. Fortress Capital Asset Management chief executive officer Thomas Yong opined that positive sentiment in gloves is likely to reduce with the news of vaccines rolling out. “Estimates in the street vary to a certain degree, hence analysts who pegged their target price to a very optimistic valuation might lower their target valuation,” he said. However, he noted that the sector is still supported by solid fundamentals where the companies have delivered supernormal earnings growth so far, which is not going to stop abruptly after the discovery vaccines.
“Following the massive sell down last week after the news of vaccines was reported, the valuation of glove players came down to quite a fair level and is becoming less expensive, “The big four players experienced a drop in share price ranging from 8.3% to 15.6% last week, but their robust earnings will continue in the next few quarters as most of the glove players have very strong order books compared with the pre-pandemic level,” he said. Another fund manager, however, opined that the gloves sector is lacking a catalyst to move on. “Valuation comes and goes. Will Top Glove make a lot of money? Yes, they will. But will the market continue to pay them the premium valuation? It is hard to say,” the fund manager said. “A lot of expectation has been built into the gloves valuation earlier on. As the COVID-19 vaccine appears, a year from now, the gloves demand may not be as good, its average selling prices may drop too, and the market will price them accordingly,” he said. According to Bloomberg, Hartalega is now trading at a price-earnings (PE) ratio of about 49.2 times; Top glove is at 32.64 times; Supermax and Kossan are trading at 16.09 and 26.44 times respectively. According to AmInvestment Bank Research’s Thong Pak Leng, glove counters which were traded at between 30 to 40 times during the pandemic outbreak, had been traded at around 20 PE before the pandemic. “We have already in few months ago talked about vaccine in our sectoral report. The vaccine may cause some selling pressure, and we have already downgraded the sector to hold,” Thong told theedgemarkets.com. He maintained his hold call on the sector as his call has reflected the impact of COVID-19 vaccines. “The only concern now is that many companies are jumping on the rubber glove bandwagon, and that may lead to oversupply in future,” he said. He also expects glove average selling prices to decline as there is no longer a rush for gloves compared with what happened at the beginning of the pandemic. Meanwhile, MIDF Research’s analyst Ng Bei Shan maintained her buy call on the gloves sector, as she thinks the glove maker valuations are justified with their earnings. “The reason that people think the valuation was very high was because the glove average selling prices had not gone up (previously), and the results of gloves companies had not been announced. But now that the companies have released their results which showed the ballooning net profits they are making, it also means the valuation has come down by a lot,” she said. She is still anticipating quarter on quarter earnings growth for glove makers in the upcoming results.
How to distribute the ultra-cold vaccine? I am allocating my GLOVE profit to TASCO Cold Chain to hedge vaccine news How to distribute the ultra-cold vaccine? I am allocating my GLOVE profit to FREIGHT to hedge vaccine news KGB's dry ice plant to flourish from Pfizer's vaccine success?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
PureBULL ...
2,638 posts
Posted by PureBULL ... > 2020-11-16 05:52 | Report Abuse
Posted by PureBULL ... > Nov 16, 2020 5:32 AM | Report Abuse X
This is a good case study of a successful fund mgr who knows:
PEPERTUAL GROWING STOCKS, the # 1 way to huge money in stocks
He buys stocks owned by successful bizmen who will deliver BIG always.
All great winning stocks r cyclical.
this mgr buys them in their growing years;
yes our glove stocks r only into 1st 10 months young of fast growth.
With this PANDEMIC on, glove stocks could continue growing for next 2-3 years...
http://m.eng.samsungfund.com/retFundView.do?fundCode=230905
it can be so easy to be great performing fund mgr. just select the strongest stocks in the whole list of chosen stocks by MSCI.