THE KEY TO VALUATION IS WHAT TYPE OF SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS IN 2022 & BEYOND LEH ??
THAT WILL DETERMINE GLOVES VALUATION LOH...!!
2020 & 2021 IS JUST PUMP & DUMP OPPORTUNITY FOR GLOVES LOH...!!
Posted by smurfbee > Dec 17, 2020 12:50 PM | Report Abuse
note that the main question for gloves now is the valuation... whether 2021 revenue and PAT actually justify what price... also will the previously estimated FY21 PAT by IBs still hold water.... my take is more selling pressure ahead.... unless over time, vaccine is proven not a game changer... and Covid is not subsiding... then gloves will hit a major come back... also whether the structural step up in demand for gloves is permanent or eventually will normalize, we don't know... time will tell although I personally feel it should have a permanent increase given the awareness in every nations WW.
according to my research , Harta IPO on 21-4-2008, at price of 0.16 (after adjustment for numerous bonus issues & dividends) , as at today price = 12.00 , the return is X 75 for 12 years !! The ONLY problem is how many investors have this patient to wait that long ??
An influential Food and Drug Administration advisory panel on Thursday overwhelmingly backed Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine, a key step paving the way to distribute the second Covid-19 vaccine in the United States next week.
The nonbinding decision, which was adopted 20-0 with one abstention, by the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee came exactly a week after the outside group of vaccine and infectious disease experts voted to recommend Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine for an emergency use authorization, or EUA.
This not rise from rm1. Before mco harta is top1 in glove industry. They lose tg during pandemic due to capacity ulitized too much on pre order before covid. So less margin come from spot order. Not same as tg, tg before covid maybe only used 60% production capacity on pre order before covid. Then once they full ulitized their capacity the extra can sell for spot order.
That why in long term harta always the best. Before or after covid their production capacity can maintain fully booked
The US is always very jealous of other country success. China got Huawei the most innovative tech company in the world, they jealous. We Malaysia got 1st Biggest Glove Makers, 2nd Biggest palm oil and 3rd Biggest Rubber Producer, they jealous.
US jealous Malaysia got so much palm oil, they have anti-palm oil campaign. US jealous Malaysia produce so much gloves, they have JP Morgan downgrade the sector whereas US Tesla boleh PE 1000x! But gloves PE 16x dah downgrade. JP Morgan has buy call on Tesla even thought Tesla PE is 1000x!
So Western country can have high PE but Asian country cannot have high PE is it? Cos Top Glove PE only 16x already downgraded by JP Morgan.
LOOK AT ZOOM SHARE PRICE. THIS IS A PURE PANDEMIC PLAY COUNTER-WORK FROM HOME VIDEO WARE. JAN 2020 PRICE IS BELOW USD$70. TODAY CLOSED IS STILL $399. STILL MORE THAN 5X UP. AT THE PEAK IS >$500. GLOVES FANTASTIC FOUR IS DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER..
. sentiment is currently against glove so don't waste your energy here against the Naysayers.
Gloves are backed by very strong Fundamental. Gloves demand will continue with or without Convid 19. Gloves will peak by mid next year. My advice is that's the best time to lock your profits if you have not already done and/or Till then, just continue to enjoy the fantastic Dividend and Bonus Issues. All the Fantastic Four companies are very generous to their shareholders.
Per 2019 US Statistic, those aged 16 or 18 and below may be around 70 mln out of 328 mln population. Thus, 258 mln would be eligible for the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine.
If 70% population herd immunity is required, it would translate to around 230 mln (or 70% x 328 mln), thus they would need to convince 90% of the eligible individuals. It may be an uphill task, since recent survey shows that merely 60% would take the vaccine which is still short of the 70% target (let alone, actually 90% of the eligible individuals are required).
If the virus mutate too fast, as it might be, (becoming more contagious), since the number of cases are swelling very fast to all time high in this winter, then maybe higher percentage of population need to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity, provided the effectiveness (not efficacy) remain at 95% and long lasting.
Is this only a temporary vaccine euphoria to provide quick relief to this painstaking winter?, as many people are experiencing Covid fatigue; And, with the hope to develop more potent and long lasting vaccine in the future?
But production volume & capacity grew even much faster mah!!
That means ASP going to fall loh...!!
With many different covid19 vaccine coming lagi worse loh...!!
I already told u that Spanish Flu over within 3 years due to herd immunity, U read back history mah...!!
Now our medical science is already 100 years ahead we have good drugs, immunology health products, many many vaccine and beside herd immunity and it is already 1 year...likely Covid 19 will be over soon loh...!!
Not only that there will be definitely excess supplies of Gloves coming due capacity expansion & over production mah...!!
Mutant Coronavirus Strain "Out Of Control", Says UK Amid Flights Ban
European countries started banning flights coming from the UK on Sunday as government in London warned that a potent new strain of the virus was "out of control".
The moves come as around a third of England's population entered a Christmas lockdown and UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned that the new strain of virus was "out of control".
Prime Minister Boris Johnson had said the day before that millions of Britons would have to cancel their Christmas plans and stay home because the new strain was spreading far more quickly.
Speaking on Sky News, Hancock said the situation was "deadly serious."
everybody, retailers, non-shortist banks, foreign funds should blast the institutional shortists together to school them a big time lesson for manipulating the share price at the cost of other people.
Everybody, retailers, non-shortist banks, foreign retailers, investors and big players should now all come TOGETHER to blast the institutional shortists and school them a big time lesson for manipulating the share price at the cost of other ordinary people.
- MS not only ventured into glove business but also planning to venture into other healthcare related business which could include personal protection, pharmaceutical, services and / or upstream product. - MS understand the importance of R & D and they will invest into this. They also have talent who have experience in this area - MS will look for business opportunity with RCEP partner in Asia - The glove production line is high speed one and highly ajtomated with auto stacking and auto stripping features. The production capability is 38k pieces per hours per production line. Industry highest is Hartalega production line which can produce 45k pieces per hour per line. - They will continue focus in automation development, same as what they are doing in plastic segment - As a new player, they have more options to choose between spot order and contractual order. Take note that the spot selling price could be 50% to 100% higher than contractual selling price. - As a new player, their production line is new which half of production line from old player could be old already. This could bring more efficiency to MS compared to other old player. - They have received more than 60 letter of intent from customer. -They are unable to provide profit guidance. But they mentioned spot selling price per 1k piece for nitrile glove is USD 80 to 160,while the cost from USD 27 to USD 50 - For the capex of RM 160m, they are looking to pay back within 1 to 1.5 yeaQ
If harta collapse, so as any other top 4 members. be triple re-assured your mahsing will be moving in tandem. keep wishing bad for others, it will 200% revert back to you.
It does'nt take a rocket scientist to figure that the Share price of THE ASSET (The Underlying Share) will be close to if not less than the Exercise Price of the Warrant at expiry.
Historical data clearly shows that 95-98% of the investors lose money in CFD's. In fact. most issuer's around the world have this statement as a Disclaimer. 2 Pages of a Macquaire Issue Document can be viewwed in the following link. 2nd page contains all the DISCLAIMERS.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockraider
31,556 posts
Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-17 12:56 | Report Abuse
THE KEY TO VALUATION IS WHAT TYPE OF SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS IN 2022 & BEYOND LEH ??
THAT WILL DETERMINE GLOVES VALUATION LOH...!!
2020 & 2021 IS JUST PUMP & DUMP OPPORTUNITY FOR GLOVES LOH...!!
Posted by smurfbee > Dec 17, 2020 12:50 PM | Report Abuse
note that the main question for gloves now is the valuation... whether 2021 revenue and PAT actually justify what price... also will the previously estimated FY21 PAT by IBs still hold water.... my take is more selling pressure ahead.... unless over time, vaccine is proven not a game changer... and Covid is not subsiding... then gloves will hit a major come back... also whether the structural step up in demand for gloves is permanent or eventually will normalize, we don't know... time will tell although I personally feel it should have a permanent increase given the awareness in every nations WW.