The current outbreak of H5N1 in Poultry industry, Avian and Mammals in North and South America especially the US and the European countries especially Britain will keep life line and buoyancy for Glove producers like Malaysia as the extraordinary event sped up the whole supply-demand equilibrium.
Happened once in 2020-2021 life time opportunity when She soared never before. Missed it, too bad, bad luck. But miss it for the Second time now, you are to blame, no one else. Just a thought, 2 cents
Halo, from 1.42 back to normalcy pun kenyang mau mati lo. Who is talking about going back to 20. Gila ah unless full scale H5N1 mutation pandemic from avian, mammals to humans
Breaking news: Local institution funds warn of long trading of glove stocks as the major business environment still not able to make profit despite the recent ASP increase. Take profit
Share a good teacher, when I met Glove Stock, it was the teacher who helped me to solve it and helped my stock market slowly recover losses. I hope that retail investors can unite. What good news can be shared together and spent the difficulties together!
To chop Harta Chives, you can follow these simple steps:
1. Rinse the Harta Chives under cold water and pat them dry with a paper towel.
2. Gather the chives together in a small bundle, making sure the stems are all aligned.
3. Using a sharp knife, hold the chives by the stem and make a series of parallel cuts across the chives, slicing them into small pieces.
4. Rotate the chives 90 degrees and repeat the cutting process, creating small squares of chives.
5. Continue to chop the chives until they reach your desired size.
6. Once you have chopped the chives, you can use them as a garnish or ingredient in a variety of dishes, such as salads, soups, or scrambled eggs.
Note: When chopping Harta Chives, it's important to use a sharp knife to avoid crushing or bruising the delicate leaves. A dull knife can make the chives turn brown and lose their flavor.
Colate and congregate all reports and data from all Major Glove Producers in the world jived with the statements made by TG on the analysts briefing 2 days back. Same preaching as before, accumulate whenever possible Now or even better 3 or 4 days back in higtsight.
Fund flow shows since TG released qtrly report recently, local insti buying Harta, TG & Supermx quietly ... But investment bank reports still pessimistic .....
Shorts coverings or FM are stocking up this Gem, Harta after having learned the hard truth or the inflection point of disposable gloves industry poised for imminent recovery. Time will tell but there is a cost you need to pay if you don't act now that is paying for a premium later. Interestingly to share with you one international player Institutional holdings left less than 5 entities against 70s not too long ago, you know when, right.
Let's play a game but No prices to giveaway though. Siapa cakap Harta continues heading North or vice-versa next week. For the record, I cakap Naik. Mesti kena "Bamboo Kao kao" if got it wrong. Kalo Right pun, no hadiah.
Make Gloves Great Again: Look Forward Many are asking - why glove stocks are running after reporting huge losses. Simple, because stock market looks forward, not backwards, not even at the present. Usually, most take a 12-month view. Remember Mar-Apr 2020? Many stocks tumbled 50-70% as funds panicked and rushed to sell out holdings, especially tech stocks. On the other hand, retailers believed that although earnings outlook for stocks might be very bad for the next few quarters, but share price has fallen too much. They believed if they invest and hold their nose for 12 months, the outlook will eventually improve, and they could potentially make more than 100%. So they took the bold decision to start buying the stocks way before the stocks turn profitable. Sounds familiar? Let's examine if this is a déjà vu for gloves below:
ASP finally started rising - the one signal the whole market had been waiting for a long time, and now it's here. Harta raised ASP this Feb. Topg has followed suit, and will be raising again in April. Even Chinese players like Intco also said they will start raising in 2Q-3Q this year.
Customers' destocking will end in a few months' time (according to glovemakers), and inventory will go back to normalised level - so no more excess inventory. Once that happens, customers will have to start restocking again. One of the signs was, glove tenders from government and NGOs have stopped for 1.5 years, and recently, Topg saw the tenders coming back from UK, and rising enquiries from other countries. So, if we look forward, glovemakers' utilisation rate/volume could improve.
No more oversupply. All small glovemakers like Mah Sing, Salcon and many Chinese players have exited the market. Semperit also sold its glove business. Not to mention major players like Topg, Intco and Harta have all aborted expansion plans, and in fact, halted a big chunk of their existing capacities.
Costs will likely peak in 1H 2023, and could improve in 2H 2023, because natural gas prices (needed for production) will likely fall in coming months as oil prices have fallen almost 50% from last year's peak. Besides, the worst impact from electricity tariff hike will be effected in 1H 2023. Anwar said "we will only increase tariff for big companies that earn billions of profits". Are glovemakers making billions of profits now? Obviously not. So I believe electricity rates will not rise further for glovemakers in 2H 2023. So, if we look forward, costs could improve.
So how now brown cow? Yes, admittedly things are still not rosy yet right now, but if ASP climbs, volume picks up and cost improves later, doesn't that indicate the worst losses could be over by Mar or Jun 2023 quarter, and things could improve thereafter? So if we look forward and take a 12-month view, can we make more than 100% from gloves this time? I'm not sure, but pre-pandemic, Harta for instance was trading at RM5-7, now it's below RM2. Btw, TOPG, the leader of glove, has just seen MA200 breakout the first time after 2 years.
F China supply. Some may argue, China may spoil market, like steel last time. Consider this difference: more than 50% of steel supply comes from China, whereas only around 20% of glove supply comes from China while Malaysia has 60% market share. So who's the price determinant over the long term? Don't forget, some of their supplies need to go to their own domestic consumption. More importantly, consider ESG - Europe wants to phase out CPO due to ESG issues, and US banned Topg previously due to foreign worker treatment (but lifted it after Topg improved their treatment and resolved it). So what makes u think that these countries would wanna buy from China, which uses environment-killing coal? Not to mention the US-China trade tension now. Why would they prefer Chinese gloves, if glove purchases constitute such a tiny % of hospitals' expenditure? FYI, Europe and US buy 55-60% of gloves produced globally.
To both groups who have bought and have not bought - good luck.
Long stories short, accumulate whenever possible Now. Jepun ke or Jepun alike are there in Harta's ecosystems to cheer us up. Thanks for doing a great job thus far. Sit back and enjoy the show next week for the smashing of 200 days MA. God willing. Cheers everyone.
Once passed beyond 200MA then migration from Skepticism phase into Hope follows by Optimism phase where Almost All IB will turn Bullshit, oops, BULLISH with wide spread coverage in soft and hard social media. Just wait and see.
Great write up George, it's definitely good seeing TG not expanding its red. But it may still be too early for a mass buy call, a buy now is similar to a buy few months back. It's everyone's guess when the ASP bottoms and supply demand equilibriums is restored. The only thing we can be sure of, it will eventually be restored, just a matter of by when.
Halo guys, bottom or not, go and check the correlation between NBR and Plant Utilization. This definitely will open your mind. Again, accumulate whenever possible Now. Your choice. Thanks.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
NatsukoMishima
6,758 posts
Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-03-17 10:40 | Report Abuse
8th round cut vege feast , thank you very much to all glove tards !