Posted by josephtan911 > 2014-05-29 15:22 | Report Abuse

Thanks highlow for the video post. Things are looking good!!! and the PM speaks with real conviction! Agree with you tshwong on your buy hold strategy.

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-05-29 17:04 | Report Abuse

Actually, how much yearly eps can benalec earns from the Tanjung Piai project?
I calculate roughly, from the Phase 1 : 1,000 acres, that will take about 5 years to complete.
Selling price of 1000acres = RM 1milion/acres x 1000 acres= 1000million
Annualised it, become 1000mil/5= 200mil
200mil / 808mil share = RM 0.25
Let’s take profit margin of 30%, we EPS = RM 0.25x 30% = RM 0.075
Don’t know this calculation right or not?

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-30 15:33 | Report Abuse

tkteoh80: Don't really have all the figures on hand atm since I'm on the move, but eh, I think your seriously underestimating the selling price.

Taking Melaka as an example. One acre is about 43,500 square feet. Benalec has been selling reclaimed land there at a price of between RM42 to RM48 per square feet. (RM1.82m to RM2.08m per acre)

If you take the time to read the analyst reports when they first covered the Tanjung Piai announcement (look for reports in mid 2013 mostly, I know CIMB did one, heh), IIRC they were talking about a selling price of about RM65 per square foot.

The higher price is mainly because the reclamation cost in Tanjung Piai is supposed to be more expensive than Melaka (I recall they were talking somewhere in the range of RM45-50 per square foot).

So even with economies of scale (1,000 acres is huge after all) the selling price is still substantially higher than what we've seen thus far.

If you want to do a back of the envelope calculation, assuming a RM65 per square foot selling price with a 20% margin:

1000 (acres) x 42,500 (square feet per acre) x RM65 (assumed selling price) =
RM2.7625 billion

Divided over five years:
RM552.5 million

And assuming a 20% profit margin:
RM110.5 million

over a current paid up capital base of 881.2 million shares you get an average EPS of:
RM0.125

Of course all this is once again assumptions, even analysts can get it wrong. I'd suggest reading up on the reports if you have the time and inclination.

Posted by jenabchen123 > 2014-05-30 15:58 | Report Abuse

Hmm! Big number been crunching here...... Can wait buying eh?

Posted by jenabchen123 > 2014-05-30 16:01 | Report Abuse

Itchy itchy, kasi hantam one lorry.......

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-05-30 16:41 | Report Abuse

thanks taciturn :) like this benalec must be RM1.50 above.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-30 17:02 | Report Abuse

柔州議會‧蘇丹抨擊不負責任者 濫用環境報告阻發展
http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/530578

Posted by GoGoBenalec > 2014-05-30 17:20 | Report Abuse

Yes, must "remind" them again who's the "authority"

Posted by samsung555 > 2014-05-30 18:34 | Report Abuse

http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/standardise-johor-s-rest-days-1.607963

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-05-30 21:34 | Report Abuse

Interesting that the Johor Sultan chose to mention the Benalec project specifically. This might tie in to the rumours about the chunk of shares transferred to a royalty related party some time ago. By the Sultan's specific mention of the project, I am sure the process will be expedited. A matter of time!

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-05-31 10:49 | Report Abuse

Based on the report by Edge Review on the land reclamation project, very soon we will not be seeing RM 1+, it should be RM 2+ start. So buy before it too late.

Posted by tshwong > 2014-05-31 14:22 | Report Abuse

Agreed with yr view, JT5774.

Posted by zero > 2014-05-31 15:11 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/19/Country-Garden-KPRJ-plan-massive-reclamation-development-for-luxury-homes/

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-31 15:52 | Report Abuse

Old story! Where is the EIA?! U!!

Posted by samsung555 > 2014-05-31 17:55 | Report Abuse

Posted by savvyone > Apr 23, 2014 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

I've just got news that Benalec has obtained EIA approval for both the Tanjong Piai and Pengerang land reclamation projects and work should start as early as next month. (Kukuman, if you are there, don't buy!)

Posted by samsung555 > 2014-05-31 17:56 | Report Abuse

Posted by savvyone > Apr 25, 2014 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

taciturn, tshwong & samsung555, I checked with my source this morning and was told that EIA approval is well advanced and on track. He had assumed EIA to have been approved because the company is currently mobilising its resources for starting reclamation work in Tanjong Piai. He further said that the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the EIA process has been approved for some time now and should be posted on the DOE website anytime soon, if it has not been posted already. As always, I will try to share accurate information as far as possible, but the caveat is that there is no guarantee. So, please be guided accordingly.

Posted by Clayton > 2014-06-01 21:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-06-02 12:22 | Report Abuse

It seem a lot of investor's bought the share and keep it for medium to long term. That's my opinion.

Posted by scenic > 2014-06-02 12:52 | Report Abuse

sir, what's the duration of medium and long term ? thanks.

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-06-02 13:29 | Report Abuse

Medium 6~12 months, Long 12 months onwards.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-06-02 13:52 | Report Abuse

For some people: Short Term = manage to sell during contra/extended contra period with profit. Medium term = couldn't sell during Short Term for profit, so have to hold.

:p

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-06-02 16:15 | Report Abuse

taciturn, you are right to a large extent. Sometimes, as is true in the case of Benalec, if you see an upside in the current share price (i.e. the market is under-valuing the company), you might want to buy in now, hold the shares for 6 to 9 months and wait for the share price to move up to somewhere near its true intrinsic value before selling down/out. To my mind, Benalec is definitely not a counter for a short-term play.

Posted by samsung555 > 2014-06-02 17:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by savvyone > on 16/05/2014 15:00 | Report Abuse


For the benefit of all those doubters re Benalec's chances of getting EIA approval, my source (who is close to the EIA consultants) told me that the status of the EIA process is as follows:

1. The key first step in the whole process was the procurement of approval from the Cabinet/Federal Government; this approval was duly granted to Benalec. Thereafter, the Terms of Reference (TOR) for EIA had to be applied for; once again, approval was duly granted to Benalec. With this approval Benalec was cleared to proceed with submission of the proposed Detailed EIA (DEIA) plan to the DOE.

2. The DEIA covers purely technical issues which Benalec is well capable of addressing and resolving through mitigation measures that the company are proposing. Hence, getting approval of the DEIA should not pose any issue, pending implementation of any mitigation measures.

3. The fact that an agreement (which Benalec’s Tg Piai and Pengerang projects come under) was signed early last year between 1MY, Spektrum Kukuh and SSI in KL and in the presence of the PM Najib, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and important government officials should serve as conclusive evidence that the said projects have received the blessings of the Federal Government, inclusive of Pemandu (which comes under the PM’s Dept.).

4. Given that the two projects (in Tg Piai and Pengerang) are regarded by the Federal Government as being in the national interest and are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the Malaysian economy, endorsement and support by the Government and understandable and visible.

So, putting all the pieces together, EIA approval, which is expected to be granted in the very near future, should not be an issue at all.
16/05/2014 15:00

Posted by zero > 2014-06-02 18:54 | Report Abuse

@taciturn, if i may add to that ;)

Long term = no chance to offload during mid-term as well, so forced to adopt the Hold & Pray strategy

(which incidentally is also my brilliantly executed plan B for Benalec hah)

Longer term = any longer i think i will start growing mould already

Posted by taciturn > 2014-06-02 19:04 | Report Abuse

zero: Lol, good one. XD

Posted by king7 > 2014-06-02 21:22 | Report Abuse

Wake up someone hinted long term, meaning If EIA extended ?

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-06-03 10:14 | Report Abuse

May benalec break 1.20 today!

Posted by GoGoBenalec > 2014-06-03 10:30 | Report Abuse

Time to fly.....

Posted by jesper > 2014-06-03 10:32 | Report Abuse

Seem like volume increase together with price...

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-06-03 10:35 | Report Abuse

If can break 1.18 then should go higher

Posted by tzkhoo > 2014-06-03 10:35 | Report Abuse

Chiong ar

Posted by Gusen > 2014-06-03 10:42 | Report Abuse

1.20 no problem

Posted by TopTraderz > 2014-06-03 10:49 | Report Abuse

Pakcik cendol beli saham ni banyak bulan lepas!

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-06-03 10:49 | Report Abuse

first sayonara to rm0.9x, now we can say sayonara to rm1.0x. Cheers!

Posted by taciturn > 2014-06-03 10:53 | Report Abuse

Just got a call from a friend. He spoke to someone in Benalec. EGM circular still waiting for Bursa's approval but they're looking for it to happen in the last week of June.

This tidbit (about speaking to someone in Benalec) is confirmed (my friend is reliable on this).

EGM occurring end of this month to be considered as highly likely but not confirmed since it's still in Bursa's ballpark.

Posted by TopTraderz > 2014-06-03 10:59 | Report Abuse

Pakcik cendol cakap jgn risau. Shm ni akan pergi 1.50 xlama lagi.

Posted by jenson68 > 2014-06-03 11:01 | Report Abuse

2nd wave....hold tide!!!!

Posted by TopTraderz > 2014-06-03 11:25 | Report Abuse

Pakcik cendol lagi power main saham! kena follow dia!

Posted by m_faiza1 > 2014-06-03 13:44 | Report Abuse

Real show after start 2nd session

Posted by traderman > 2014-06-03 14:04 | Report Abuse

i will say enough of the day. 2nd session will be boring

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-06-03 14:28 | Report Abuse

Just wait and see. There should be more action, if not today then definitely over the next 2 to 3 days.

Posted by m_faiza1 > 2014-06-03 16:19 | Report Abuse

Today close above 1.20

Posted by staind86 > 2014-06-03 18:43 | Report Abuse

Hi taciturn, may I know how the egm will benefits the company? Is it because it can finally put a closure on the HOA?

Posted by taciturn > 2014-06-03 19:12 | Report Abuse

staind86:There should be two main items on the agenda. One is of course ratification by the shareholders of the HoA, and the other is the shareholders ratification of the RM235m land sale to Ultra Harmony.

And yes, if/when shareholders approve the HoA, you can say that the issue between the brothers is more or less coming to a close (it'll be final once both sides have completed all the points on the HoA).

Right now the cynic in me is always concerned that somehow or other the HoA doesn't get approved (it's voted by all the rest of the shareholders excluding the 47% or so held by the Leaw family). In other words, it's possible for shareholders to say we do not agree and the whole agreement collapses and everything goes into a tailspin.

Logically though, we have to assume that Vincent Leaw and family realise this so they've made arrangements so that friendly parties would have acquired shares for the vote when the EGM does occur (this probably includes the parties that bought the 45 million shares from them on April 9 for 77 sen).

The second item (the land sale to Ultra Harmony) is something that requires shareholder approval simply because of the value of the transaction relative to the value of the company and is no biggie (consider it as just part of the ordinary course of business).


Also as an update, I had a more detailed chat with my friend who'd contacted Benalec for more information about the EGM. According to him, the date that they were aiming for is June 25th. (Logically Bursa has to tell them in advance what date/range is acceptable since Benalec has to make arrangements to ensure that the EGM's venue is available for that date before the circular is issued)

He also inquired about the 1000 acre Tg Piai land sale and what it status is? According to Benalec, the EIA is __still pending__ and __has not been approved__ as yet.

He couldn't get anything further out of him. Whilst Benalec did confirm they had mobilised some resources in anticipation of approval they have no clear idea when such approval will be given.

I discussed this further with my friend and we're both rather cynical on the chances of Benalec getting it approved before the term sheet expires (it'll probably get another 6 month extension). We've managed to get an early timeline of the EIA application process and it is disappointing to say the least.

The original submission was in April 2012. It was rejected on July 2012. Benalec however was allowed to resubmit it in early August 2013, however Benalec voluntarily withdrew it by late August 2013 and resubmitted a few days later.

The timeline after that gets murky and we'll have to assume that there was a lot of political back door dealings/discussions to get approval.


Will throw an entertaining bone out to those who like conspiracy theories though about what might/could happen. The term sheet for Tanjung Piai expires on June 11th.

The minimum notification period to call for an EGM is 14 days.

Benalec's targetted EGM date is June 25th.

:P

This is probably nothing but a coincidence, but it can drive some people's minds onto overdrive. Much as we hope that there'll be a third item on the EGM's circular, I have to say in all honesty we are doubtful that will happen. We hope to be proven wrong of course!

Posted by taciturn > 2014-06-03 19:22 | Report Abuse

Note, I'd like to reiterate I'm still bullish at the company's prospects over the long term. Whilst without Tanjung Piai/Johor things will be really disappointing (another extension to the term sheet will be a downer), there are some decent facts to consider.

The company still has some 500 acres of land available to sale, and that's a potential RM700m in revenue (this is my own estimate) that can keep the company going for a couple of years assuming they're able to find buyer(s).

For those who are invested at a price that's lower than the current price, you're better off again waiting until the EGM just to see what visibility there is for the company (as a lot of questions will be asked then, of which the answers would probably be of interest to anyone investing/invested).

Whilst for those whose entry pricing is higher (as Zero puts it, hopefully don't end up into Longer Term investors :p), I'd probably advise you to wait till then as well. If no visibility comes about for Johor, you might want cut by then if you're tired of how things are going.

Without Johor's approval I don't see the price appreciating like what it has over the past month or so. And you'd have to wait for some other major catalyst to see it appreciate (i.e. winning E&O's Sri Tanjung Pinang 2 when it's tendered out) or the like. Johor then becomes a gamble (or prayer depending on how you look at it) which you'll only find out when it gets announced (unless you have some form of kangtao/inside source lah).

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-06-03 19:35 | Report Abuse

Taciturn thanks for the update. Do not think the IR team wouldve let in on any updates on EIA even if they knew anything. That would be deemed material information and a SC violation. I might be reading too much into it but I still have a feeling the Johor sultan's comments were rather targeted. Tj piai has a Saudi investor element in it as well and any prolonged delaya would be detrimental to the investing sentiments. We shall have to wait and see I'm afraid

Posted by eddieleong84 > 2014-06-03 20:02 | Report Abuse

http://www.nanyang.com/node/625717?tid=772
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/19/Country-Garden-KPRJ-plan-massive-reclamation-development-for-luxury-homes/

Posted by staind86 > 2014-06-03 21:25 | Report Abuse

thanks taciturn for the detailed view. appreciate your efforts.:). got some info from another forum the focus is on stp2 and pengerang. looks like the is unlikely any outcome on tj piai.

btw, on country garden reclamation work. their project at danga bay was not awarded to benalec. even though they are planning to reclaim on the second link, i doubt there is any connection to benalec.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-06-03 21:44 | Report Abuse

staind86: Cheers. =)

With regards to country garden, bear in mind that the announcement for that joint venture (with KPRJ) regarding Forest City was only announced in March 2014.

If that was the initial announcement, sincerely doubt they've even gotten EIA approval yet. :p

Whilst Danga Bay was not done by Benalec, no doubt some people will be excited at the prospects if/when EIA approval is granted and tenders are called for the reclamation works.

Of course this is probably a couple of years down the road at least.

Posted by staind86 > 2014-06-03 22:10 | Report Abuse

country garden seems to be more keen to do the job themselves.
they are building many blocks of condo at danga bay, but din't see those public listed johor based company got the job. example is kimlun.