@taciturn ...... not that straight forward. Recommend u to attend investors briefing by PEMANDU/DIALOG?PETRONAS and other players. You will know what i try to mean.
intuition, management buys back at whatever price they deem as below fair value. if they buy at a higher price it means they believe it is undervalued. nothing to do with expensive price or not. have a look a vitrox. it was trading at 0.70++ for the longest period. the company periodically bought back shares with underutilised cash. have a look at its price now (1.80).
at the end of the day, you can have your opinion and I can have mine. you make your own decisions as will i.
@inutition Let's be very clear on something. There were no share buybacks yesterday (15 May 2014). Volume done for that day 43.826m shares. Open 1.09, close 1.16, up 7 sen.
The highest price thus far that Benalec has paid per share during buybacks is 1.05.
From May 6 to May 14, Benalec bought back 9,255,500 shares for RM9,030,961.84. This means the average price was 97.57 sen.
Today's price let's call it 1.15. So Benalec is in the money for _at least_ 15 sen.
What exactly is the problem here then? And for the love of all that is holy, please don't say that the share buybacks alone caused the price to go up. If you see my posting above, the buybacks accounted for 6.88% of all volume traded during buyback days.
I have never heard of a company (in Malaysia) that has always successfully bought back shares at the low, only the low and nothing but the low. Absolute bottom fishing whilst something to aspire to is nothing but a myth. Surely you as a professional analyst can understand that?
And I'm confused, you say things are not so straightforward and that I should attend an investors briefing. What exactly are you referring to? I looked back at my postings and I can't fathom what it is you're trying to refer me to.
When the shares price is not moving upward, you people are cursing the counter. But, when the shares price move up, you are still not happy and say it is being goreng by some big fish. Apa lu mau? Intuition, I guess you must have bought the shares at a price above 1.12. That's why you are crying like a little girl. :)))
For the benefit of all those doubters re Benalec's chances of getting EIA approval, my source (who is close to the EIA consultants) told me that the status of the EIA process is as follows:
1. The key first step in the whole process was the procurement of approval from the Cabinet/Federal Government; this approval was duly granted to Benalec. Thereafter, the Terms of Reference (TOR) for EIA had to be applied for; once again, approval was duly granted to Benalec. With this approval Benalec was cleared to proceed with submission of the proposed Detailed EIA (DEIA) plan to the DOE.
2. The DEIA covers purely technical issues which Benalec is well capable of addressing and resolving through mitigation measures that the company are proposing. Hence, getting approval of the DEIA should not pose any issue, pending implementation of any mitigation measures.
3. The fact that an agreement (which Benalec’s Tg Piai and Pengerang projects come under) was signed early last year between 1MY, Spektrum Kukuh and SSI in KL and in the presence of the PM Najib, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and important government officials should serve as conclusive evidence that the said projects have received the blessings of the Federal Government, inclusive of Pemandu (which comes under the PM’s Dept.).
4. Given that the two projects (in Tg Piai and Pengerang) are regarded by the Federal Government as being in the national interest and are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the Malaysian economy, endorsement and support by the Government and understandable and visible.
So, putting all the pieces together, EIA approval, which is expected to be granted in the very near future, should not be an issue at all.
Ayo Intuition, where can fund manager sit comfortly and buy slowly with the said good news here? I smell gold rush ...... Every fund manager local or international itchy itchy.
whatever the prices need to consolidate before moving higher. Benalec price has move up between 10 - 15 sen Contra players will be tempted to lock in their profit. just count backwards ( T=3 and T=4 ) days and check the volume. No counters can move in a straight line. this is just how i (myself) interpret it. happy trading
The current share price is well expected. If you don't then you need to learn. No counter can have only one direction (called UP). They need to digest and consolidate, which I expected to be today or maybe even Monday or take longer time they needed.
As most of people know me from other counter. I'm long term investor. I have accumulate different price level of Benalec. I'm holding this share for two years without selling it yet. Will see how it perform in next three years.....
It really good to see Benalec enter into consolidate stage now or pit-stop before they move to next level again.
next few months i will be leaving this forum to cover another company. So sorry if any of my words hurting any1. Just young chap in research industry and enthusiastic
8u29song: You always assume a percentage of the volume will be contra players who will wait till T+3. Sure there are those like you say who will sell same day or the next day hence the neednto use a percentage. Take other things into account, is it institutional buying? Syndicated play?
A lot of this are assumptions you have to make and usually only time and experience will get you a slightly better (if not good) idea.
Personally I'm assuming that come Monday we'll probably get at least 25-30% of the volume on last wednesday as T+3 players. So make it about 15-20m waiting to be flushed by people who bought in from 98 sen to 1.10. This percentage is slightly higher than what i think it is simply because there'll also be some T+2 sellers from thursday who are also worried who might be cutting out as well.
Of course this is far from an exact science. For all you know the price might spike come Monday. Ask other experienced traders their opinion on this as well to get a better idea.
I like the closing share price today for Benalec. It good and normal for the counter that have it share price rise quite a lot. Let have a consolidate stage for couple of days and it totally fine IMHO.
@taciturn: i dont mind your personal attack, I had this stock for years and attended almost all their AGM years back. Yes, it was my mistake about KWAP and KWSP, as long as this institute is trying to let go their position in this. I/m seriously hope they will get their johor projectbut it was years story. please look at their free cashflow since listed then you will know what i said. I just hope ppl are not into this trap. dont you forget the ugly family issue on the management board?? Time will tell mate..
elmo, allow me to allay some of your concerns: 1. debt position - i believe this has been answered before. debt position is reasonable 2. why not pay dividends and their free cash flow position - as also explained earlier, a company in this business does not have steady recurrent income. income is on a project basis for land reclamation and hence it is not comparable to many other companies. It is also capital intensive. A good practice if you are in this situation is to have flexibility in repatriation to shareholders because you might need the money. Dividends are sticky - which means you need to pay them continuosly or the market will have negative reaction if you reduce it. But what happens if you suddenly get alot of projects which increases your capital expenditure but you still have to pay dividends? Where do you find the cash? Capital raising will be even worse. What most companies in their position - with spare cash - would do is to buyback shares. It is no commitment to the market that it will persist forever but it is a signal that management thinks it is undervalued. Share buyback is supposed to lead to appreciation so I do not know why many here thinks that it is market manipulation. Investopedia explains "Because a share repurchase reduces the number of shares outstanding (i.e. supply), it increases earnings per share and tends to elevate the market value of the remaining shares". The company is effectively paying back shareholders by reducing the shares outstanding 3. family dispute has most probably been settled. None of them would want it to drag on longer as it would not benefit any one of them.
That said, you are entitled to your opinion. Just make an informed decision.
Yup, everyone are entitled to their own opinion. If you don't like the share, you should sell it, don't hold something that you hated and kept on dragging on your hatred. Invest in some company that you liked, marrying someone you love, be a decent people, that will make you life happy and the wealth will surely flow into you. That what I did, I'm very positive and happy. I will never hold any counter that I don't like. And of course, the money kept on flowing into me. I believe in 'positive power'.
Buy back on monday if price drop at level 1.05 to 1.08..sure this counter will support immediately at 1.10 and above..huge vol at level 1.00 to 1.10 will push benalec at certain level .next round at level 1.20 to 1.45..
elmo888: I regret that you think my debunking your statements is a personal attack.
This is not personal, this is just the truth. You made statements that were completely untrue, and I rebutted and explained why.
Fine you made a mistake between KWAP and KWSP. Accepted.
But here's the thing, _neither of them_ have any shares in Benalec, or if they do it's in a very small quantities. You said "...as long as this institute is trying to let go their position in this". And again I will ask, how in the world are they supposed to sell shares that they _do not own_.
Why is it so difficult to recognise and accept this fact. KWAP/KWSP/Khazanah/Any Malaysian GLC/ Any Malaysian GLFund do _not_ own shares in Benalec.
You seem looking for some sort of conspiracy theory behind this that they are selling shares, when don't own any. This is not a personal attack, but the blunt truth. You made a false statement, I've disproved it.
You claimed the share buyback pushed up the price, I rebutted this and gave you factual data as to why I believe this to be untrue. Again, this was not a personal attack, merely the truth.
Fair enough, if you're bitter about how things have gone especially with the family shenanigans, that is your right. Whether you want to believe the matter is being settled via the Heads of Agreement is again up to you to decide. (you do realise there is one right?) You may not believe it will happen, whilst I do. Now that's a personal opinion and not a personal attack.
Now you've clarified you were looking at free cash flow, and not debts, fine. My previous statement was against you claiming the company had a lot of debts, which as you know is completely untrue.
On the subject of free cash flow, I am unable to say anything on the matter as I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to pass comment. Perhaps others would care to do so.
Why did I respond to your posting in an abrupt manner in the end? It's simply because any of these details can be found simply by taking the effort to read announcements off bursa announcements. If I a non-professional can do it, why can't you? If you couldn't be bothered then surely you must be prepared to be called out as a fool for pulling out stories from the air.
Sapu buy in kau2.....i am holding 10 lot at142 since july 13 imagine how pity long way to wait till 142. The director issue hancur everthing .now i finally see the light
people who hold from last year 1.3-1.4 , pls do not worry. share buyback and more great news coming in next week to push the price up. it will be your turn to gain profit soon.
when the price going up, everyone talk positive, when the price going down a bit, people start worrying,the share price come to this stage means that got more room to rise.please see other stock such as Gadang, Insas,Hohup, the price Up and Down still in the good price.The share price could not up non-stop everyday.
It is normal price up and down, case of benalec, time for bullish , do not worry, sometimes, need take a breath before up further. Base on chart , more coming.
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Intuition
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Posted by Intuition > 2014-05-16 14:34 | Report Abuse
@taciturn ...... not that straight forward. Recommend u to attend investors briefing by PEMANDU/DIALOG?PETRONAS and other players. You will know what i try to mean.