When I first learned Aikido, my sensei taught us to avoid all unnecessary fights. He taught us that it is for self-defence and he would always run from a fight if he can (although he is sibeh geng). When he started to teach us, we are thrown around so that we can learn how to land and roll correctly.
It is also the same in stock market and many things else. I'm very glad when I first started investing I lost a big chunk in mycron last year. It taught me a lot. I'm also very pleased with myself to have stayed put with ssteel during the previous dive below RM 1.20. I gained a nothing financially, but in terms of 心态, I felt that I've grown a lot.
And it is also this forum, that I met these selfless ppl who openly shares their studies and findings. Again, 感染到我的是他们高尚的情节和广阔的心胸. Earning money became secondary.
I hope you guys who always talk nonsense to take some time to reflect. There's so much you can do with your life. Please do something meaningful.
For my brothers who are sitting this one out. 他强由他强,清风拂山冈。他横任他横,明月照大江。
My friend in one of the Malaysia Biggest Contractor Company just told me his company only sourcing rebar from local steel mills only. China price is too pricey and they request in USD cash settlement. His company is source from Annjoo and Ssteel and some from Lion/Masteel. As their procurement forecast steel price will continue to shot up, they have already place an orders in advance.
sensei, i'm trying to figure out a battle technique called blindfolded random strike. This strike is such that it attack without any backing/support, fierce, fast, enemy unable to detect bcoz no traces BUT i dont understand how do I fight by being blindfolded, meaning u can't see what u r attacking or going to attack. It bsed on element of surprise, swift and forceful
Not true, VenFx, there was adjustments when price hit 1.80 months ago & retreated back to 1.65, it was when I started accumulated this ssteel. My average price was RM1.70.
Annjoo is the best because it is having two swords.
Basically masteel, ssteel and lion steel is using same technology, the difference in their inventory strategy will make a difference in their gross profit margin.
Ssteel Q2 result is not satisfactory due to it secured all the expensive raw material in Q1 and used it in Q2. For coming q3, it is doing the same but this round is using all of cheap raw material secured in Q2 and used in 3Q.
SSteel raw material costs is one quarter lag? I think it's should be based on the consumption of the raw material per quarter. First in first out based.
Exclude Annjoo, who will be commanding the highest EPS among Masteel, Lionind & masteel in coming Q3?
In Q2, we knew among these 3 who will be commanding the best EPS achievement.......
The one that holding the highest inventory in Q1 no doubt that to be loser in Q2 but the one that holding the higher inventory in Q2 will one of the best winner in Q3.
We make a mistake in Q2 in conclusion that higher inventory holding in q1 is probably the winner in Q2. We are proved wrong as rebar price reversed from high in Q1 to low in Q2 which caused gross profit margin greatly reduced. This change have great impact on ssteel but lesser in others.........
Q3 will be a reverse situation for ssteel. It would greatly benefited from high low cost inventory secured in Q2 while enjoy a best ever high rebar price recorded in Q3.
Posted by OOMMGG > Aug 26, 2017 01:23 PM | Report Abuse
We make a mistake in Q2 in conclusion that higher inventory holding in q1 is probably the winner in Q2. We are proved wrong as rebar price reversed from high in Q1 to low in Q2 which caused gross profit margin greatly reduced. This change have great impact on ssteel but lesser in others.........
Q3 will be a reverse situation for ssteel. It would greatly benefited from high low cost inventory secured in Q2 while enjoy a best ever high rebar price recorded in Q3.
A very good lesson learnt in Q2
ME: GOOD CONCLUDING OOMMGG BRO . BE IT A BEUTIFULLY MISTAKE :) THOSE HOLD STILL SHALL HIS LOUDEST LAUGH AT THE END . BIG GUN HAS PUT THEIR MONEY WORK in Q2'17 ... REVERSE STRATEGY (MISTAKENLY), HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD FORTUNE .
I dont think ssteel applied the wrong strategy previously. But rather they have no choice. They have to continuously produce for their customers. If the market force is weak then they will lose badly. But when the market force is strong, then they will benefit the most. And the market force has just started this q3
Posted by zexon > Aug 26, 2017 01:30 PM | Report Abuse OOMMGG , do you mind to forecast Q3 eps for ssteel?
ME : EASILY CAN PROPEL FOR $77-96 MIL IN Q3'17 ($0.180-0.220 eps)
Forwarded rolling over to Q3'17 with x 10 p.e. would render a [ TP @$3.55 ]. ---------------------------------------------------------------------
SO, APPERANTLY U CAN SEE WHY BIG SHOT PUMP THEIR MONEY AND START BUYING LIKE NO 2MORROW SINCE MID JULAI , EVEN ON YESTERDAY FROM $2.04-1.93 traded at vol.65000 lots, i believe they have collected a 25000 big bulks from those panic sellers; they must celebrate it yesterday nite :)
For the next 1 - 2 years, the topline / revenue will take care of their own. Care should be given to their cost of production though. Q3 shall be a good testimony to what ssteel has to strive in such challenging environment
Venfx and OOMMGG, not a mistake, Annjoo and Ssteel had mentioned Q2 was a weak quarter in their Q1 financial report. But both of them are optimistic on coming quarter outlook.
I did monitored the transaction volumes, some bought in at the size of 50 and 100 lots. Sold in 1, 2.5, 5 or 10 lots size. From here, we can see the big holders started to collect.
zexon , they managed to cacth at least 60-70% of total yesterday sellers traded ; which is not easily to be done if everyone so enthusiastic over Ssteel .
Apart from the rise in scrap and fuel cost, i am really concerned about the rise in cost of graphite electrodes which is reportedly to shot up for 7 times in the past year
Thus, I think that the rise in price might be due to the rise in production costs and the margin might not improve tremendously. Rather they will profit from thheir higher volume of sales like aax
I am using MITI's weekily information to compute. This is a simple calculation and September data yet to finalize. But as of now, data showed double digits profit margin.
Mr Pauper, no worry about the graphite electrodes price surge, consumption is aboout 1.4 to 2 kg for every metric ton steel produced and it had been factorized into cost.
Mrpauper, in our eye of small retailer we are instinctly calling it wrong / inappropriate strategy on why management is unwise to secure so much raw material at high price as we do not apprehend what is the reason behind it.
I am no expert in steel industry and do not have much information on detailed cost of production. I can only monitor the seeling price through miti weekly bulletin and sharing from edward
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Posted by KLCI King > 2017-08-25 15:33 | Report Abuse
All eyes on ssteel now, if ssteel can rebound back to above 1.98.