Posted by Stockwatch > 2013-09-04 23:53 | Report Abuse

Tough call Qii.Against the external market sentiments as described by you. the Malaysian economic fundamentals have to be addressed rather drastically as foreign direct investments have dried up with the latest report of a Chinese smelter cancelling its plans to set up base in Malaysia.As reported by one research house the bulk of the domestic investments were hugely concentrated in the property sector if I am not mistaken about 45%.
Unless we have a strong leadership to bite the bullet and expand the revenue base by widening the tax base and at the same time narrowing down the budget deficit and public sector borrowings ie. the twin devils facing both the foreign investor buying into government treasury bills and local investors trying to pick a gem of a jewel ie. profit margins are not impacted by the weakening ringgit and minimum wages where the current reportings have showed that net profits for most sectors have slowed with the exception of the banking sector.
The other main concern if you are a major shareholder of a public listed company....would you repatriate your profits from the sale of your overseas investments?According to one report and even Bank Negara acknowledged it is that we have seen growing outflow of private capital since 2008 General Elections.
I think the market is a leading indicator of future set of events because it discounts the hopes and worries.It would be a volatile market as it hinges on current account surplus which is narrowing,Petronas contributions to the government coffers based on prevailing Brent oil price not withstanding the statement by OPEC recently that in 2 to 3 years time US production of shale oil will increase and US would be a next exporter of crude oil and gas.Also palm oil prices have not recovered. It used to be RM2,800.00 per metric ton now hovering at RM2,400.00.
Yes I do agree one need to be invested but it takes guts to stay the course.Having your money parked in fixed deposits is equally a bad option as inflation would kick in with the subsidy fuel rationalisation.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-05 00:20 | Report Abuse

@Stockwatch: Thanks for the notes. These are definitely good. I will try to relate these to the discussion on LBS.

I am not sure whether the reference of 45% domestic investment in property is referring to all investments or just investments in property stocks in Bursa. Either way, it is a healthy indicator which means property sector is more resilient since it is domestically driven. In total, foreign shareholding in Bursa accounts for 24.6% of total investments. Issue arose in several counters with high foreign holdings such as UEMS which was why they have been sold down heavily recently. They have good fundamentals but foreign shareholding is high. LBS should not face this issue ... yet.

Regarding the profits from the sale of land of LBS, the payments will be staggered over 4 years in cash and shares. Due to this, they have also adopted a special dividend policy to pay special dividends over the next 4 years. We will likely seen the use of the cash proceeds to reduce gearing and improve landbank in Malaysia esp. Iskandar. Between China and land near to Singapore, I think it is a no brainer. Furthermore JV development on the last parcel of land in Zhu Hai will be another catalyst.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-05 00:31 | Report Abuse

@Stockwatch: Regarding palm oil prices, you are right. Actually it reached RM3500+ in 2012. Though we must not forget that competition from other grain type oil such as soybean oil has increased together with production. IMHO, its more a supply & demand thing. To be honest with you, personally I am actually glad that the food type oil has decreased. It can only mean good things for world food prices esp the poorer countries.

Posted by Stockwatch > 2013-09-05 01:06 | Report Abuse

Personally you need to check out the party LBS join-venture with on the last parcel in Zhu Hai.It is good LBS will pay special dividends over the next 4 years.It would mimic like a fixed deposit.The only caveat you need to check out on this Chinese developer ie. its ratings, gearing and free cash flow and its historical track record of dividend payments.If you feel it is up to mark then it is your call.
LBS was pretty quiet on the domestic scene for the last few years due to the above strategy adopted by its management to go offshore.It is a basically a mass scale developer ie. apartments going by its historical launches here and not a niche developer or boutique developer like Sunrise (now taken over ) or Tan & Tan.
I also think it was in the same China venture bandwagon which Farlim, another listed company,took but unfortunately for Farlim, not a good outcome.Unfortunately they did not take a copy of Sun Tzu's Art of War when operating in China.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-05 01:39 | Report Abuse

Yeah that's true. Lets see what comes out of it.

US markets seem to be in very good green territory so far.

Posted by Superb99 > 2013-09-06 17:16 | Report Abuse

at this moment, better don't touch construction & technology counters...

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-06 17:35 | Report Abuse

have foreign fund buy this counter....

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-06 19:49 | Report Abuse

Good notes from the book. Thx for sharing.

There you go. The interest from the HK / CN based partners. 5%.

Posted by Superman2 > 2013-09-08 20:58 | Report Abuse

yes welcome back, eusilyn. U r always damn good in yr analysis.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-09 12:14 | Report Abuse

Thanks in advance. Looking forward to your analysis of the fair value of this company. Good luck.

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-09 14:07 | Report Abuse

the klcl up 15 point but LBS only up 3 sen, how about the trend of this stock ???????

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-09 14:20 | Report Abuse

Look at percentage. 3 sen so far is 1.83%. KLCI 0.87%.

Posted by peggy8229 > 2013-09-09 14:23 | Report Abuse

I think LBS can buy, this share is going to give dividen on 01-10-2013

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-09 15:10 | Report Abuse

total bid means buying?total ask means sell?

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-09 17:20 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: Thanks but if you don't mind me asking, why are you planning to take down your postings? Comments are based on known factors during that time anyway.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-09 17:27 | Report Abuse

Side comment on the market sentiment. Despite the uncertainty in US strike against Syria & QE tapering, the KLCI futures seemed to have ended with a 4-pt premium over the cash index against a 12-pt discount on Friday. Wow. How these 2 weeks pan out will be very interesting.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-09 17:28 | Report Abuse

That's 39.5 pt up from previous close.

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-09 20:26 | Report Abuse

euscilyn, possible this counter up to rm2.00 by end of this year?

Posted by Muadzam Muzafar > 2013-09-10 09:25 | Report Abuse

go go go

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-10 09:31 | Report Abuse

Lbs will go up 2.00 !!!!!!!!! $$$$$$$$$$

Posted by euscilyn > 2013-09-10 09:34 | Report Abuse

Technically, if volume and support line at $1.80~1.85 till end Sep... than TP $2 not far away from Nov 2013.

Fundamentally, TP $2.50 ~ $3.00 by 2014 (long term).

Hope my investigation is correct. (i'm still in the stage of study)

Dear all pray for it.

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-10 10:05 | Report Abuse

really hope can go rm2.00..LBS please =D

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-10 10:10 | Report Abuse

ok scjm3, cheers =D

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 10:23 | Report Abuse

Technically speaking, it is still too early for the cycle to end. Daily RSI just crossed over the 50 threshold and is still bullish. Target for LBS today is to sustain RM1.71. Next target will be RM1.74 to ascertain the bullish sentiment on this stock followed by next pivot point at RM1.77. Support is seen at RM1.67-68 range. At the moment, judging from momentum, buyers are still cautious since transacted volume is relatively low.

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-10 10:30 | Report Abuse

this morning the ringgit touch to 3.268 per 1 US dollar, l think the hot money will come back soon !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 10:31 | Report Abuse

@Euscilyn: My targets for today are at RM1.71, RM1.74, RM1.77. My note to potential buyers are need to be cautious on Thursday. If cannot hold, please do not buy.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 10:35 | Report Abuse

RM1.74 is the current SMA20. If it can cross over that convincingly, we are talking about a bullish sentiment on this stock. It has nothing to do with transacted price so far. Anyway it is too early to call the closing / high / low for today. It is only 10.35am.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 11:06 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: Cool down mate. I am just sharing what I observed from the charts and indicators - not my personal opinion. Secondly, if I may repeat, I did not put RM1.74 up because it was transacted today. RM1.74 is the current SMA20. For a stock, if it can cross above SMA20, it means it is bullish. Currently LBS has NOT crossed over SMA20 yet. RM1.74 is a target, not a done deal. I hope we don't misunderstand each other.

Now market is still in euphoria due to upbeat Chinese export data. Thursday could be down because US Congress may authorize a strike on Syria. Market sentiment can go either way. External sentiments for this week and next can change drastically.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 11:29 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: I agree with you. Lets see what happens later today and this week.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 13:44 | Report Abuse

That's definitely true.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 15:04 | Report Abuse

Speaking like a true fund manager :)

Of course there is nothing wrong with that. It is an open market. The only worrying portion that the community needs to work on is market panic. Panic can create many bad things - not just $$$

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 15:37 | Report Abuse

(like)

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-10 17:05 | Report Abuse

1.74~a good closing,,,:)

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-10 17:10 | Report Abuse

good job LBS closing at 1.74 n DJIA futures up 72 point. LBS soon will go 2.00.......

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-10 17:13 | Report Abuse

LBS $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ every investor looking for $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-10 17:43 | Report Abuse

Good Job LBS, good job eusillyn, scjm,Qii all huat =D keep it up...come come rm2.00

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 19:30 | Report Abuse

Of course. I think we are on the same page :) apart from the interpretation of bullish and bearish as buy or sell signals. Those are just observations of the charts and not a call to buy or sell. My tone here has always been to caution against panic buying (chase) or selling if people do not know what they are investing in / cant hold.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-10 19:34 | Report Abuse

I have one good news and one bad news. Good news is LBS today seemed to have a breakout after forming a quick cup and handle chart pattern = may see further upside bias. The bad news is the breakout may be 'fake' due to potential -ve market sentiment this Thursday (US congress vote on Syria) and next week (FOMC meeting aka QE tapering). If in doubt, Investors may want to wait until end of next week for some certainty.

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-11 09:57 | Report Abuse

jason how say?DJIA 72 points...so what it is indicating

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-11 10:23 | Report Abuse

Today, DJIA futures flat, asian market very cautious......

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-11 16:31 | Report Abuse

@scjm3 erm..why u like keep want to prove that LBS was in a dropping zone?o_O

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-11 16:53 | Report Abuse

@scjm3 just felt weird..cause i dint saw you give comment on others shares except LBS..and i don't think you hold any of this shares right? that's why i ask..no offense ya..i am sorry if you felt any..

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-11 16:54 | Report Abuse

@scjm3 but i agreed on what you said...

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-11 17:16 | Report Abuse

Mr Obama holds fire on syria and will try in diplomatic way. Tomorrow will be better...

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-11 17:28 | Report Abuse

jason any link that is very important news for investors this few days.anyway thanks for your news

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-11 17:33 | Report Abuse

but all the specialise also not encourage on the property counter now due to new government polisi, (increase BLR, bank loan periods shorten, sale tax increase within 5 years, no DIBS...)

Posted by paulyeo > 2013-09-11 20:31 | Report Abuse

thank you scjm3 for all your valuable comments. 有钱大家赚！

Posted by kenyang82 > 2013-09-11 22:43 | Report Abuse

林木生建筑业绩好转

二零一三年九月十日 晚上十一时十五（吉隆坡10日讯）林木生建筑集团有限公司（LBS，5789，产业组）公布，在截至2013年6月30日止第2季度，所取得的税前利润按年从2253万令吉晋至2339万令吉。

至于营业额亦由前期的1亿2324万令吉走高至1亿3420万令吉。

该集团表现获改善，归因于目前正在进行中的项目，逐步确认较高的营业额和利润贡献。

“我们很高兴向公众报告，集团将会继续健康地成长。”

“在房地产市场的挑战性环境当中，林木生建筑仍持续取得股东和购房者的信任。”

该集团董事经理拿督林福山在一份声明中说：“我们的策略决策和高素质产品，在未来被证明是一个成功的组合，我们看到在今年余下的日子，这种趋势仍会持续下去。”

展望未来，林木生建筑称：“目前17个正在进行中的项目，以及在截至2013年8月15日止总值7亿1400万令吉的未开票销售下，我们有信心在截至2013年12月31日止财政年度，其业绩获得进一步改善。”
【光华日报】

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-12 07:26 | Report Abuse

ok, US market up, today go go go...

Posted by euscilyn > 2013-09-12 14:05 | Report Abuse

Support line at 1.69~1.73. It's consider stable line support up to today because not much affected by contra player. Good sign !!

As mentioned by you guys, the market is cautious therefore not much fisherman play around the pool. Fundamentally, is a good counter don't need to worry about dropping line. The lowest rate will be at $1.60 ~1.65.

Let's us wait for support line $1.80~1.85 by end Sept. Target goal at $ 2.00 ~ 2.05 within this few months. Good Luck guys !!!