Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 11:06 | Report Abuse

I judge this should rise to rm3 but dunno when as they still got another piece of land at china

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 11:18 | Report Abuse

hmm thanks scjm.agree

Posted by Ck Kean > 2013-09-25 13:13 | Report Abuse

It is maintaining a "buy" call on LBS Bina at RM1.85, with a target price of RM2.49 premised on a 40% discounted re-valued net asset value valuation.

"Based on our 10.55 sen FY13 EPS along with the 8 sen special dividend, LBS will be effectively yield 5.9% in dividend returns to shareholders, which is one of the highest among the listed property developers," it added.


captured from thesundaily: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/839159

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 15:08 | Report Abuse

amazing~

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-25 15:12 | Report Abuse

Hey scjm3, you seem to know a lot about LBS and bullish about its company prospect and its share price. good on you.

But instead of buying LBS, why not buy its warrants as it is trading at a discount of 2.1% when the underlying and warrant share price is at 1.88 and 84 sen respectively? Some more there is a gearing of 2.1 times.

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 15:14 | Report Abuse

kcchong warrant how to play..i dunno can teach?

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 15:16 | Report Abuse

showtime~

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 15:16 | Report Abuse

what is used of warrant?scjm might explain?

Posted by jacksonchoo > 2013-09-25 15:21 | Report Abuse

surge because of special dividend ex on 1/10?

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-25 15:23 | Report Abuse

ic, long run or short term?

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 15:23 | Report Abuse

I believe 3 factors, fundamental of stock,dividen, QE issue settle

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-25 16:21 | Report Abuse

1.90...hopefully can stand above 1.87 as a close for sept..:D

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 16:24 | Report Abuse

newjune may i know u buy rate was?

Posted by cckkpr > 2013-09-25 16:41 | Report Abuse

Sometimes when nearly all red, lbs green, dont know what is happening. Maybe good for profit taking. Moving average looks good.

Posted by buybackma > 2013-09-25 16:46 | Report Abuse

better keep till exdate! div play..

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-25 16:50 | Report Abuse

average @ 1.53..looking TP 2 as what euscilyn & scjm3 mention...how about you?

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-25 16:52 | Report Abuse

1.88 lol

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-25 16:55 | Report Abuse

don't worry...as long as u are not using contra.nothing to worry on such strong fundamental shares.

Posted by Newjune > 2013-09-25 17:03 | Report Abuse

1.91 good closing...

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-25 17:04 | Report Abuse

today up many, hope tomorrow not drop many as well...

Posted by euscilyn > 2013-09-25 17:27 | Report Abuse

BBB79, the theory is same.

Try to stick at your own plan but must do more homework and study more on your business. if you workup your homework you will not worry the up and down factor.

BBB79 to answer your question, about the LBS project at China, actually they are not selling 100% share. LBS still KIV some potential share on hand but I'm foreseen it may revised from time to time because 2016 is too far way from 2013.

Below is my latest analysis target price :-

short term : 1.95 ~ 2.20 (Sep ~ Dec 2013)
mid term : 2.20~2.50 (early 2014)
long term : 2.60 ~ 2.80 (mid 2014)

fabregas 88 about hitting TP 3, I rated it as potential TP but how far will go needed to see from time to time. Usually, I will monitor between 3 ~ 6 mth analysis therefore TP 3 for me is to early to said.

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-25 17:30 | Report Abuse

euscilyn, how to sell the share below 100 units?

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-25 17:31 | Report Abuse

euscilyn, my TP is 2 then sell out, i not comfortable for the coming share market trend...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-25 19:05 | Report Abuse

LBS warrant A, Wa has an exercise price of 1.00 and expire in slightly less than 5 years time on 11 June 2018. At today’s close of LBS and Wa at 1.91 and 85 sen respectively, Wa is trading at a discount of 3.1%. This means buyers of Wa today got a discount plus a free time value. Let us try to fathom what is the benefit of buying Wa instead of LBS if you are bullish of the company.

Let say I have RM19,100 which I intend to invest in the business of LBS. Instead of buying 10,000 shares of LBS, I use the same amount of money to buy Wa instead. I will be able to buy 22470 (19100/0.85) shares of Wa at 85 sen.

Then I send in Wa for conversion with RM22470 to get 22470 shares of LBS. After getting the converted share back, I sell in the market at RM1.91, assuming the share price stays at RM1.91. The proceed I get is RM42920 (22470*1.91) and my total cost is RM41571 (19100+22470). I make RM1348, in about two weeks.

But why do I want to send Wa for conversion when there is still close to 5 years before Wa expire? There is plenty of time value in Wa. So I wait.

Let say LBS share price goes up to scjm3’s TP of RM2.50 in one year time. Then only I send Wa for conversion. I will make RM14606 (76.5%) instead of RM5900 (31%)if you hold LBS. That is because of the leverage of 2.2 times with Wa.

Of course leverage cuts both sides. If LBS drops to RM1.50 and I have to convert Wa and sell, I would lose RM7865 (41.2%) compared to RM4100 (21%) if I hold LBS shares.

Table below shows the gain/loss for Wa wrt to the share price of LBS upon conversion of Wa. So as you are bullish about LBS, it pays better to invest in its warrant.

LBS 1.50 1.91 2.50 3.00
% gain -21% 0% 31% 57%

Wa -41.2% 7.1% 76.5% 135.3%

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 04:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by scjm3 > Sep 26, 2013 12:06 AM | Report Abuse
wow i have not given a thought on the conversion factor. this approach is very feasible and offers a much better returns, i must said. i should give it a serious consideration thank you although i have decided not to dabble with warrant ever again. you know, if only you have joined this thread a little bit earlier when the price is around rm1.70, i would not have any reservation and plunged straight in for a simple reason that the gain to be made would be much meaty and the highly improbable downside risk was very low.
i am very comfortable with the rm2.00 target to the extent that i even ventured to say that it is as good as a done deal. rm2.50 is mentioned as an immediate response to the query raised by fabregas on the possibility of it hitting rm3.00.

SCJM3, I DID WRITE SOMETHING ABOUT LBS WA WHEN LBS WAS AT 1.71 AND WA AT 75 SEN JUST ABOUT A WEEK AGO AS SHOWN BELOW IN THE FOLLOWING THREAD IN I3:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900396884.jsp

AT THAT TIME, WA WAS TRADED AT A SMALL PREMIUM OF 2.3%. SINCE THEN LBS HAS RISEN BY 20 SEN, OR 11.7%. HOWEVER WA HAS RISEN BY SLIGHTLY MORE BY 13.3% TO 85 SEN NOW. WA DID NOT RISE HIGHER BECAUSE OF ITS GEARING OF 2.3 TIMES THEN AS I EXPECTED AS IT IS SWITCHING FROM A PREMIUM OF 2.3% THEN TO A DISCOUNT OF 3.1%. THIS MEANS WA IS EVEN MORE ATTRACTIVE TO INVEST IN NOW THAN THE UNDERLYING SHARE NOW THAN A WEEK AGO.

SURE NOTHING IS 100% CERTAIN. IF LBA SHARE PRICE GOES SOUTH, INVESTORS OF WA WILL LOSE MORE THAN THE UNDERLYING SHARE. BUT IT IS HOW CONFIDENT YOU ARE IN THE SHARE PRICE OF LBS IN THE FUTURE, AND IF YOUR ANTICIPATION OF ITS RISE COMES THROUGH, YOU WILL DEFINITELY MAKE MORE MONEY IN INVESTING IN WA. DON'T YOU AGREE?


Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 18, 2013 11:38 AM | Report Abuse X

LBS Warrant, Wa (180913)

LBS Warrant A is trading at 75 sen while the underlying share is at RM1.71now on 18 September 2013. It has an exercise price of RM 1.00 and the expiry date is on 11th June 2018, or in about 5 years time. The warrant is hence in-the-money with an intrinsic value of 71cents (1.71-1.00). However if you buy Wa at the price now of 75 sen now, you pay a premium of 4.0 sen, or a premium of just 2.3% [(0.75+1.00)/1.71-1]. This premium is low and moreover, there is a gearing of 2.3 times for Wa. Hence Wa appears to be a good alternative in investing in the business of LBS.

The theoretical value of warrant depends on the price of the underlying share, the exercise price, time to expiry, its volatility, the risk-free rate; in that order of importance. The Black-Scholes option pricing model, using a historical volatility of 25%, risk free rate of 3.5%, dividend yield of 1.2% and LBS’s price now at 1.71 shows that the warrant has a theoretical value of 80.5 sen, or 7.5% above its present price of 75 sen.

The following Table 1 shows the settlement price of Wa with respect to the share price of the underlying asset. If LBS goes up to RM 2.50 (a gain of 46%), the settlement price of the warrant is RM 1.51 for a gain of 100%, more than twice that of if you invest in the underlying share. If the share price of LBS stay put at 1.71 at the expiry of Wa, one loses 7%. If the share price of LBS slips below 1.00, the exercise price, buyers lose everything.

The question you have to ask yourself is, What do you think is the direction of the share price of LBS before the expiry of Wa in 5 years time?’

Table 1:
LBS 1.00 1.71 1.80 2.00 2.50 3.00
Wa 0.00 0.62 0.80 1.05 1.51 1.97
gain/loss -100% -5% 7% 33% 100% 167%

My personal opinion is Wa offers a better investing opportunity because of its low premium with some gearing . It also has quite a long time before expiry.

Posted by euscilyn > 2013-09-26 07:33 | Report Abuse

BBB79, you might need your trade agent help for selling loose share unit. call up your trading company for help.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-26 11:51 | Report Abuse

Please note that LBS-WA was trading at 3.1% discount on 25/9/2013. Please also take note that the previous new high for LBS is 1.95, when LBS was trading at 1.95, LBS-WA was trading at 1.19.

Base on my calculation, if LBS is trading at 1.92 presently, LBS-WA should be 1.09. Presently LBS-WA is trading at 0.87, hence it is a buy call for LBS-WA.

Please do your homework before you buy, final decision is yours.

Thank you.

Posted by sifuexperience > 2013-09-26 12:36 | Report Abuse

It is trading at discount because of the dividend next week.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 13:03 | Report Abuse

No wonder you are a experienced sifu. Yes the 8 sen dividend ex-dated next week would adjust the underlying share price down by the same amount of dividend. So actually LBS at 1.91 and Wa at 87 sen means there is a premium of 4 sen. But considering the warrant has a long expiry date, the 4 sen premium is still very very cheap.

This is the type of comment everyone welcomed, even for those who are very gung-ho about LBS Wa because many of them won't realize this. High dividend kills the value of options; whether it is company warrants or call warrants. I am very surprised in another threads when forumers raise up some concerns which are very useful but opposite of their views, they were treated as bashing others and scorned.

This 8 sen dividend is a special dividend. Anybody knows if the exercise price will be adjusted?

May be a person in the industry, like Ooi Teik Bee can Provide some light here.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-26 13:12 | Report Abuse

Warrant will not entitle to dividend, exercise price also will not be adjusted.

Thank you.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-26 13:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by sifuexperience > Sep 26, 2013 12:36 PM | Report Abuse

It is trading at discount because of the dividend next week.

Ans : I feel that it should be trading at a premium even there is a dividend payout. I think it is a good buy since it is trading at a discount.
I expect a higher premium because the warrant expiry date is about 4 to 5 years time.

If the price of LBS can cross all time high, it is a good buy for LBS-WA.
Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 13:31 | Report Abuse

OTB, thanks for the clarifications.

Sometimes I see there is adjustment to the warrant price for special dividend, for example the recent Kulim Wc exercise price adjustment after the special dividend of 95 sen for Kulim.

Could you enlighten us if there is a threshold for the adjustment, any guideline from Bursa, or is it company specific?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-26 13:43 | Report Abuse

Yes. You are right.
When there is a special dividend, the management has to make an official announcement to clarify the new exercise price for the warrant.
For normal quarter or annual dividend, if there is no clarification from the management, the exercise price will remain unchanged.
Likewise, bonus or right issue, the management has to clarify and inform the shareholder on new exercise price.
Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 13:49 | Report Abuse

But this 8 sen dividend is termed "special dividend", not just normal dividend. Why no adjustment to exercise price?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-26 14:01 | Report Abuse

Yes. You are right again, it is a special dividend.

Have to check is there any announcement on adjustment of exercise price of its warrant.
If there is no announcement, exercise price will remain unchanged again.
Anyone can advise on this matter since I am not aware.

Thank you

Posted by miketyu > 2013-09-26 14:07 | Report Abuse

May I know how can I apply for conversion of Wa to ordinary shares?

Posted by zenwan > 2013-09-26 14:43 | Report Abuse

OTB, is the warrant too high to enter before correction.

Posted by derrickinvestor > 2013-09-26 15:12 | Report Abuse

where got high.. mine is higher at 97 cents.. and still waiting

Posted by cckkpr > 2013-09-26 15:44 | Report Abuse

miketku, fill up the warrants conversion form and submit to Registrar together with RM10 fee.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 15:50 | Report Abuse

miketku, why do you want to convert? You are losing heaps in the time value. You have 5 years of time value. You can convert any time before expiry when it favours you to convert. No rational person will convert at this situation.

You better consult your remisier.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-26 15:54 | Report Abuse

Yes, KC is right. There is no logic to convert at this point in time just for a few sen gain based on current prices. . Another reason is that by the time you have the shares in the CDS account, prices may have changed. Thus advice from your broker or any financial consultant. Just my opinion.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 16:01 | Report Abuse

inwest88, why did you sell MMode?

Posted by cckkpr > 2013-09-26 16:05 | Report Abuse

conversion will give you the dividend that the LBS pays and this couple of years, it include the special dividend.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 16:09 | Report Abuse

You won't entitle to this 8 sen dividend. It is already ex-dated. If for future dividend, when the time comes, then consider. Generally it is foolish to convert to the underlying share when there is still so long to expiry. The benefit of the dividend, if any in the near future, cannot compared to the valuable time value of a few years.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 16:30 | Report Abuse

Warrant is a derivative financial instrument which derives its value from the underlying share price. The only uncertainty is if LBS share worth the value you are talking about, 2.00, 2.50? If you are very positive about it, there is no more other doubt about the attractiveness in investing in LBS warrant.

So scjm3, are you confident about LBS share price? I am actually relying on you on this.

Posted by cckkpr > 2013-09-26 17:01 | Report Abuse

scjm3, are we assuming that the quarter ending 30/9 is better earnings or expect property counters to be trading at a higher PE to support the higher price? What about higher RPGT at coming budget?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-26 17:03 | Report Abuse

scjm3, thanks for your response. Actually I started buying LBS on 5th August 2013 at 1.47. I switched to LBS warrant at 73 sen on 18th September in view of the attractiveness of warrant as an investment compared to the underlying share. Please read my post again why I said so.

So your view is a good confirmation of what I thought about LBS after reading through a research paper about its sales of its China land some time ago. It is good to have your view rather than just the analyst view because investment banks have their own agenda different from retail investors like you and me. I actually put more value on your view than that of IB.

Since you are so confident about LBS, really, the warrant is much more attractive as an alternative way to invest in LBS. I said invest, not trade. Because you talk about trading, it can be manipulated by insiders and syndicates.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-26 19:19 | Report Abuse

kcchong, MMode is one of my fun trade counters. Have been going in and out 3 times this month and making a few hundred each time. No doubt it's a company for long term investment. But I have about 8 other counters which are are really long term.

Posted by cckkpr > 2013-09-27 09:12 | Report Abuse

scjm3,the lowering of the RPGT rates previously has the desired effect of stimulating the property counter and I believer the reverse would be true as well as the expected returns will be down by 20 to 25% depending on the number of years held. LBS houses are targeted at owner-occupied and thus may not be that much affected compared with high-end development, which are more speculative. Yeah, a higher PE will comes with good growth and earning prospects. However, LBS has yet to attract investment grade funds into its shareholding.Paying consistent dividends is a first step; however transparency and good corporate governance is another.
Anyway, i have held this counter for a real long time esp during the crisis period where they have to sell lands to pay the banks.

Posted by miketyu > 2013-09-27 09:28 | Report Abuse

I have jumped on the WA boat as well. what if the market sentiment not good? whats the cut loss point?