Posted by cricketlast > 2018-07-24 13:20 | Report Abuse

Hi Hafid and ladahitam,

Feel free to correct me if the info below are less than accurate.

I think what ladahitam means is upon the completion of the acquisition of MBMR by UMW, there is an opportunity for the UMW to list Perodua given that it will end up with a total of more than 70% interest of Perodua.

However, I doubt that UMW (or in this case its major shareholder PNB) would want to do that. One of the main reason is that UMW currently have a valuation of around 20x fwd PE. If they want to do an IPO, it would only make sense if they can get a valuation of more than 20x for Perodua. Another roadblock for an IPO would be Daihatsu which UMW need to convince (contrary to some news reports, an acquisition of MBMR by UMW does not actually need approval from Daihatsu given that the entity that UMW is planning to acquire is actually MBMR and NOT Perodua. Daihatsu does not have any say in the selling and buying of MBMR shares).

I believe that the main reason for UMW to acquire MBMR is mainly for the balance sheet, future growth earning as well as the healthy cash flow that the company can provide to UMW (all of this will mainly come from Perodua). Cash flow is especially important for UMW given some of the projects that they currently taking like the Rolls Royce fan casing manufacturing are expected to have negative cash flow for the foreseeable future.

At the offer price of RM2.56 per share, UMW acquisition will only translate to around 8.8x 12 months trailing PE (excluding all the impairment that occurred last year). Even if they increase the offer to RM3, for example, this will only translate to 10.4x 12 months trailing PE which is only half of what UMW is trading at the moment. In terms of P/B, an offer of RM2.56 will only translate to a valuation of 0.7x P/B (as of March 2018). An offer of RM 3 will translate to a valuation of 0.8x P/B. If the acquisition is completed, UMW can actually post a gain of acquisition amounting to RM290mil to RM440mil in their P&L for FY2018 (if they can complete it before end of the year).

In summary, the real reason to why UMW want to acquire MBMR is mainly because the valuation that the company is trading at the moment is really cheap for a profitable company with steady cash flow.

Regards.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-07-24 14:59 | Report Abuse

yeap is correct.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-07-24 15:00 | Report Abuse

at RM2.30 you will gain 11% from RM2.56 price. but if there is no takeover price than will be much higher

Posted by Hafid > 2018-07-24 15:00 | Report Abuse

so someone is blocking at this price level

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-07-24 15:08 | Report Abuse

Anyway, i believe any acquisition would have to be at a higher price. During the AGM back in May, Dato Abdul Rahim (the chairman and also shareholder of Med Bumikar Sdn Bhd) mentioned that in order for UMW to take MBMR private, they will need to get at least 95% shares approval (i actually thought UMW needs only 90%). He doubt that UMW can get it at the offer price of RM2.56.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-03 16:12 | Report Abuse

MBMR price is stay strong at 2.39

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-04 06:49 | Report Abuse

3 thing zeti going to focus at pnb

Posted by KiasiPu > 2018-08-06 16:50 | Report Abuse

expected good qr result soon.

Posted by yongch > 2018-08-07 10:36 | Report Abuse

Tp2.80!!!!!

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-08 16:02 | Report Abuse

volume is big

Posted by James Ng > 2018-08-13 08:59 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/169209.jsp
[转贴] [MBM RESOURCES BHD，车辆需求疲弱，市场竞争激烈，租购贷款审批严格以及外汇波动剧烈] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by Yael Jasper > 2018-08-13 15:58 | Report Abuse

Nice

Posted by KiasiPu > 2018-08-15 11:28 | Report Abuse

Tchong report positive result, MBMR confirm will have excellent result this quarter.

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-08-15 11:29 | Report Abuse

很好

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-08-15 21:48 | Report Abuse

Hi KiasiPu,

Agree with u on the expected better result for 2q18 (should be out next week). Perodua managed to sell 61,530 cars for apr-june 2018 period compared to last year sales of only 50,169 cars for apr-june 2017.

Based on a projected profit of rm120mil for Fy2018, mbmr is currently only trading at a mere 7.8x fwd PE.

To put things into perspective, if Tan Chong managed to record the same amount of profit of rm12.4mil in 3Q and 4q of fy18, total profit for the year would amount to around rm42mil. At the current price Tan Chong is trading at a valuation of 26.9x fwd PE.

Thx.

Posted by KiasiPu > 2018-08-16 11:16 | Report Abuse

Cricket, last qr was already 32M.
FY2018 should easy get 150M with tax holiday sales during june to sept.

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-08-16 11:56 | Report Abuse

strong momentum to buy

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-08-16 12:36 | Report Abuse

Hi Kiasipu,

You are right to highlight the potential higher PAT due to the tax holiday (june - Sept period).

However, I just like to be a bit conservative in my projection.

But if they do get the RM150mil PAT for FY 18, that would translate to an even lower fwd PE ratio of only 6.2x.

Ridiculous valuation for an exposure to Perodua which is the market leader in Malaysia.

And i think the market has yet to consider the potential turnaround of OMI Alloy in FY2019. MBMR has already rope in the biggest alloy wheel manufacturer in China, Citic Dicastel. Their plan in 2019 is to produce around 700,000 alloy wheels mainly for export to Europe market. This is more than double the production output of 300,000 alloy wheels recorded in FY2017.

Thanks.

Posted by nakata > 2018-08-20 11:28 | Report Abuse

Sifu, why this stock price is hanging around 2.35 -2.4 ? never move beyond the price range ? the take over price is RM2.56 right ?

Posted by yongch > 2018-08-21 14:37 | Report Abuse

Took over by UMW not successfully...now tried very hard final negotiating again...this counter plus all asset she tp4.0 above but now Big boss only offered 2.56....U think they sohai?if b4 01nov the buyer still LCLY end up price shd went down below 2.0lo!!!!all ikan bills carefull lo....AGM time can't even provide door gift not even bungkus nasi lemak ...what can we expect oh????

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-24 21:18 | Report Abuse

I heard bad new. So sell while you can

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-24 21:35 | Report Abuse

UMW also extended its offer to PNB Equity Resource Corporation Sdn Bhd for its 10% stake in Perodua for RM417.5 million or RM29.80 per share. If successful, that would have led to UMW owning a 70.6% stake in Perodua.

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-08-27 09:46 | Report Abuse

Hi Hafid,

Can you share the bad news?
From my understanding there are more good news actually for this company. Here are some that i personally have concluded (feel free to correct me):

1) 2Q18 result which should be out this week would show improvement vs last year.
2) Overall FY18 result to be one of the highest in the company record (from the sales numbers of Perodua vehicles). However to be conservative, i project a profit of RM120mil for MBMR in FY2018.
3) SST: CKD vehicles are tax exempted from the new SST. This bode well for Perodua especially the best selling Myvi. Basically price should not defer much compared to the price during the tax holiday period.
4) Potential turnaround of alloy wheel manufacturing division in FY2019.
5) No future impairment expected in near future (from the chairman indication during the AGM back in May).
6) Beneficiary of the new automotive policy by the new govt.

Thanks.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-27 16:43 | Report Abuse

you see the share price. some one is pressing down the price

Posted by KiasiPu > 2018-08-28 17:49 | Report Abuse

Record sales and profit..

Posted by KiasiPu > 2018-08-28 17:49 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5983

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-28 19:22 | Report Abuse

Share price going to be down. The deal is off

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-28 21:00 | Report Abuse

The Group's revenue increased by 22.1% mainly due to the GST holiday which boosted higher car sales
• Contribution from our joint venture and associates also improved
• As a result, profit before tax for the quarter was higher by 118.0% to RM43.2 million
• The Board declared an interim dividend of 3.0 sen per share

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-28 21:00 | Report Abuse

For the current quarter, the Group's revenue improved by RM89.4 million or 22.1% to RM493.3 million against the
corresponding quarter. PBT increased by RM23.4 million or 118.0% to close at RM43.2 million due to improved sales from all
Divisions as well as higher profits from both the associates and joint venture entity.
The Group's share of results in it's joint venture improved by RM3.1 million or 236.9% to close at RM4.4 million due to higher
sales and foreign currency gains.
The Group's share of associates' results increased by RM16.0 million or 69.0% against the corresponding quarter to close at
RM39.2 million.

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2018-08-29 10:31 | Report Abuse

Can mbmr continuously growing ? That is the key factor may affect

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-08-29 15:24 | Report Abuse

Hi david,

Good question.

For the short term, I believe that MBMR can easily beat their 3Q and 4Q 2017 results.

Beyond 2018, i am still optimistic of this company's earning sustainability (and hopefully growth).

The current government decision to slow down spending in infrastructure project (public transportation in particular) will make Malaysian still dependent on cars as the main mode of transport. In Klang valley for example the LRT3 project which was initially stated to complete by 2020 was push back to 2024.

In addition to this, the potential protective measures for the new automotive policies might prove to be an advantage to local car manufacturers in particular Perodua and Proton which directly help improve MBMR business (MBMR is one of the main local automotive parts manufacturer and assembler. Main clients are Perodua and Proton).

The future SST that is to be introduce in Sept has exempted CKD sedan and hatchback cars which means that the price of Perodua models would most likely remain around the same level as during the tax holiday period.

All these being said, MBMR is currently only trading at 7.5x fwd PE (assuming FY18 PAT of RM120mil).

Pecca, which derive 50% of its revenue from Perodua, is currently trading at 15x PE.

UMW who holds 38% interest in Perodua is currently trading at 19.8x fwd PE (assuming FY18 PAT of RM350)

Thanks

Posted by chkeong3 > 2018-08-29 16:26 | Report Abuse

best buy counter. tp 3.2

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-08-29 16:35 | Report Abuse

Just to provide some industry comparable based on 2018 fwd PE. Got this from Kenanga (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/46874.jsp)

Bermaz 12.8x
DRB 12.4x
Sime Darby 23.1x
Tan Chong 20.0x
UMW 18.9x
APM 14.1x
PECCA 11.2x

Average 16.1x


Now for MBMR, Kenanga projected a higher 2018 PAT than me (RM 133.5m vs mine of RM120m)

Their fwd PE for MBMR is only 6.8x.

Thanks

Posted by Hafid > 2018-08-31 21:43 | Report Abuse

Look like umw is preparing something

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-09-03 13:09 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/09/03/perodua-cars-1-3pct-cheaper-under-sst-pricing/

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-11 06:44 | Report Abuse

Look like proton will fight with perodua. Let see who is the winner

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-11 19:51 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwgLkbNdgBg

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-09-12 11:49 | Report Abuse

Happy ! Good profit everyday hehehe

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-15 19:55 | Report Abuse

any news that the umw ceo change

Posted by Yael Jasper > 2018-09-18 11:39 | Report Abuse

This stock become stronger and stronger, worth to invest

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-18 11:43 | Report Abuse

no volume

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-09-19 09:02 | Report Abuse

Agree with Yael.

3Q18 result should be better than 3Q17 and 2Q18 which will be pushed by the higher sales/invoicing of Perodua vehicles. In 3Q17 there were only 49,811 perodua vehicles invoiced. In 2Q18 there were 54,995 perodua vehicle invoice. A big portion of the bookings made by customer, especially during the tax holiday will be invoiced in the coming quarters.

Total profit for 3Q18 should be highest for this financial year even if the sales in September is expected to be lower.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-20 07:46 | Report Abuse

source: https://www.daihatsu.com/news/2016/20160129-6.pdf

Toyota Motor Corporation (“Toyota”) and Daihatsu Motor Co., Ltd. (“Daihatsu”) announced today that Toyota and Daihatsu signed a share exchange agreement (the “Share Exchange Agreement”) to conduct a share exchange (the “Share Exchange”) in which Daihatsu will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Toyota and Toyota will become the parent company owning all of the shares of Daihatsu as described below, after both companies adopted resolutions approving the
Share Exchange at their respective meetings of the board of directors held today. The Share Exchange is subject to the approval of the Share Exchange Agreement by shareholders of Daihatsu at its annual general meeting of shareholders scheduled to be held in late June 2016, after which the Share Exchange is expected to become effective on August 1, 2016.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-20 07:47 | Report Abuse

In the brand business, Daihatsu and Hino Motors, Ltd. have principally sold light vehicles and affordable compact
vehicles, and loading-type trucks and commercial vehicles, respectively, under their own brand while also supporting
Toyota’s operations through activities such as the supply of vehicles to Toyota.

Posted by Hafid > 2018-09-20 07:51 | Report Abuse

Strategy for emerging countries
- Place the top priority on the ASEAN region, including Indonesia and Malaysia where Daihatsu has long cultivated the market, in carrying out its efforts.

Posted by James Ng > 2018-09-24 13:08 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/175179.jsp
[转贴] [MBM RESOURCES BHD：受益于零税率商品及服务税，由于消费者喜欢较低的汽车价格，销售趋势将持续至第三季度，预期汽车贸易部的表现将维持未来几个季度] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by cricketlast > 2018-09-26 11:04 | Report Abuse

How much should MBMR be valued?

For me the minimum valuation for MBMR should be the value of its 22.6% interest in Perodua. When UMW made the offer to buy Med Bumikar 50.07% and subsequently and MGO at RM2.56 per share it was made based on Sum of Parts of MBMR's interest in Perodua and other business division. Total offer amounted to RM 1bil.

At the same they also made an offer to PNB Equity Resources Corporation's 10% interest in Perodua at a valuation of RM417.5mil. This value the total company at RM4.18bil.

At the point of offering, the valuation was made based on Perodua FY17 profit of RM440.2 mil(refer to UMW 2017 annual report page 179 of the financial statement) or at a PE valuation of around 9.5x PE.

Perodua profit for FY2018 will easily hit the RM600mil mark. Using the same valuation multiple UMW used during the offer back in March, Perodua should be valued at a minimum of RM5.7bil. MBMR's 22.6% interest should be valued at least RM1.29bil or RM3.30 per share.

Please take not that this does not include MBMR's other businesses such as Federal Auto Holdings (owner of distribution rights for Volvo and Volkswagen), Daihatsu Malaysia (distributor of Hino trucks and Daihatsu.), Hirotako Holdings (supplier of automotive components) and Oriental Metal Industries (main supplier of steel and alloy wheels in Malaysia. Expected to turnaround in FY19 in collaboration with Citic Dicastal, largest alloy wheel producer in China)

If you think the 9.5x valuation is high, below are the valuation for other automotive companies in Malaysia. Prepared by Kenanga Investment (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/46874.jsp)

Bermaz 12.8x
DRB 12.4x
Sime Darby 23.1x
Tan Chong 20.0x
UMW 18.9x
APM 14.1x
PECCA 11.2x

Average 16.1x

Posted by yongch > 2018-09-27 10:40 | Report Abuse

Agreed!But this are not Big bosses intention....BUY low Sell high always right!!!All bcoz of politics reason someone willing to let go low price so 2.56 offered.maybe end up2.80 but this are beyond ikan bilis shareholders controlled lo!!!tp 2.56!!!

Posted by Victor Yong > 2018-09-27 11:36 | Report Abuse

Till 31 Oct next month, the offer from umw at rm2.56. now the price is only 2.1+... If go through, gain 40sen+ per share based on current price.

Undeterred, UMW extends MBM Resources offer for another six months
Khairie Hisyam Aliman
/
theedgemarkets.com

April 27, 2018 20:07 pm +08

-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (April 27): UMW Holdings Bhd has extended the validity of its takeover offer for control over MBM Resources Bhd (MBMR) for another six months, ahead of a crucial shareholders’ vote to decide on the offer on Monday.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, UMW said its offer to buy a 50.07% stake in MBMR is now valid until Oct 31. This is the second extension after UMW previously extended the validity from March 28 to April 30.

The latest extension is “to enable parties to deliberate on the offers”, UMW said.

[


UMW is offering RM2.56 per share to Med-Bumikar Mara Sdn Bhd for the latter’s 50.07% stake in MBMR. If Med-Bumikar accepts, UMW intends to undertake a mandatory general offer and take MBMR private.

The price tag amounts to RM501 million, valuing MBMR at RM1 billion or 16.36% higher than its market value when the offer was announced on March 9.

Posted by Victor Yong > 2018-09-27 12:01 | Report Abuse

What if umw starts buying mbmr share from the open market now, much cheaper , right? Geely bought mercedes shares from the open market too , about 10% as reported previously