As of 24 Nov: 13,000 booking in 15 days -> Book Rate = 867 per day As of 28 Nov: +2,500 booking in additional 4 days-> Book Rate = 625 per day
Look like booking slacks after initial burst. Assuming 625 per day booking, per month rate will be 18,800 or 11,200 delivery (assuming loan approval ratio of ratio of 60%). That’s nearly double the 6000 initial target.
Going through their 2016 annual report and notice that Perodua has no debt at all in their balance sheet. The value of mbmr stake in perodua itself is higher than its market cap.
Wondering why the other big automotive players are not looking to acquire the company given it is steeply undervalue? Can easily help them in providing the profit growth for the future..
Even worse, auto loan application actually contracted which indicates the root of auto industry’s malaise may lie with the consumer demand (which is harder to solve) rather than just difficulty to get loan.
There are two catalyst for MBMR:- volume growth and shift towards higher margin product mix. Of course, now with additional factor of stronger Ringgit vs yen. So, a shift back to profit margin of ~5% together with stronger Ringgit will probably provide just enough fuel for price to rise to around RM2.35-RM2.55. To go beyond, probably need volume growth in 2018.
Anticipating a cup and handle formation? Wait for the break of the flag pattern for a push to 2.70-2.80 (based on the height of the cup)…Results should be coming soon at max 9 days!
Result not satisfactory. Hit by impairment adjustments totaled to RM242.5 million for the quarter. Even core also not nice, an associate profit down 23.5%. JV reduced by 34.4%....
That is because there is no liquidity in the stock. The spread between the buy and sell order is a bit wide.
Hopefully the gap will reduce once the market becomes more interested in the stock. I think 2018 will be the turnaround year for MBMR mainly driven by the results coming from Perodua.
Perodua new Myvi has exceed expectation both in the sales numbers but more importantly in the sales of their premium version of Myvi which will provide better margins (profit to Perodua).
The strengthening of ringgit vs USD will also help reduce the input cost for Perodua and also for the manufacturing arm of MBMR.
In addition, the impairment of goodwill (RM145.6m) relating to Hirotako Holdings acquisition (back in 2012), the impairment of investment in Autolive Hirotako (RM52.9m) and impairment of PPE of the alloy wheel division (RM61.7m) will reduce the annual depreciation and amortization charge of the group which itself will help increase the profit.
Bare in mind that the 22.6% in Perodua itself is already valued at around RM1.1b (or RM2.80 per share) which is higher than MBMR current market cap of only RM887m. This also means that the other business is practically free at the moment.
A steel and aluminium tariff by the US will actually help MBMR (& Perodua) given that it will actually flood the global market with access steel and aluminium hence reduce their price. Which means cheaper raw material for our domestic automotive companies.
Feel free to comment if anyone don't agree on the assessment. Would like to know also other people views on the company prospect.
Some parties might take the opportunity on Monday to try cooking it up to that level but the Mandatory General Offer most probably will not be as high as the average RM2.56 paid by UMW to obtain a controlling stake in MBMR. They might just start off with an offer of around RM2.30 for the Minority holders
Agree with u on the offer being too low. At rm2.56, it only represent 70% of the company's total book value of 3.68. At least they should have offer something that is near to the book value of mbmr 22.6% in perodua. End of financial year 2016 it was rm1.1b or rm2.80 per share. End of 2017, should be higher.
So agreed that the offer should have been around rm3 for it to be reasonable.
@ Cricketlast, indeed quoted in the announcement on the listing status. Thanks for highlighting. I also concur that UMW undervalue MBMR. Perodua is valued at RM 4.18b. Given MBMR 22.58% stake in Perodua and market capitalization @ RM 2.56 plus debt of RM 1.08b, UMW values other MBMR businesses are mere RM 140m only. At 50.1% stake already acquired, there is still sizeable stake not owned yet... Would UMW be successful in MGO to take MBMR private?
I am also not sure if the other minorities would accept their low offer. Take epf for example, they have been an investor of mbmr even before 2016 when the share price was traded above rm2.60 (at least since 2012 and most of the time it was higher than rm3.) It was only in 2016 that the share price actually go below rm2.60 level. And given the better prospect of perodua at the moment due to the strengthening of ringgit as well as introduction of new car models (myvi and the new suv expected in 4q18) i can only assume that mbmr financials will only get better. Even the alloy wheel business are showing good growth with breakeven targetted somtime in 2019.
I am not sure that epf would want to divest their stake now with an offer price that really do not take into account the better prospect of MBMR.
I am sure the independent advisor would say that this deal is not fair and not reasonable for the minorities of mbmr.
How much would umw needs for it to take mbmr private? Is it 90%? Hopefully they can revised their offer price if the feedback from minorities are not that great..
Yup. There is always the possibility that it will go thru.
I think for umw the main offer that will need to go through is the current offer to med bumikar (control 50.1% of mbmr). Once they have gotten the majority interest in mbmr, they can consolodate both the income statement and balance sheet into umw financials (however with high non controlling interest portion).
At the same time they will also get majority position in perodua with a total of 59% int (upon completion of pnb equity resources 10% in perodua as well as the int held by mbmr).
Then umw will need to make a decision on whether they want to have mbmr as a listed entity or not. They will need to acquire at least 90% interest (i think, appreciate if someone could confirm this) for them to take mbmr private. For me, anything below the nta (rm3.68) makes sence for umw as it will be a value accreative transaction. And the nta is expected to only go up as long as perodua makes profit (which is most likely the case). Umw is currently trading at 2.2x their NTA.
Anyway for the minorities, if the deal with med bumikar goes through, the min price for the shares that they are holding will be rm2.56. If umw really wants mbmr for themselves, minorities might get a better deal than what is being offered at the moment.
Appreciate any comments.
Thanks.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
yipgusing
483 posts
Posted by yipgusing > 2017-05-25 00:05 | Report Abuse
at least not a -ve financial result ..