Posted by commonsense > 2019-01-22 10:23 | Report Abuse

Hi megatti,

Kenanga however actually estimates the losses from alloy wheel at rm23 -26 ml per annum. So for them, the earning boost from the disposal will be a lot higher than my own assumptions.

Regards.

Posted by Hafid > 2019-01-22 10:31 | Report Abuse

the Nav/share is RM3.88

Posted by yongch > 2019-01-22 13:45 | Report Abuse

Hahaha....now started so many high look expect this counter...ok la jus waiting for 3.0 then let your big players continues lo....kikiki...every day so shiok looking at slowly climbing up up up!!!!tp3.0!!!!Chinese New Year Ang Pow around the corner ..Huat ah!Heng Ah!!Ong Ah!!!!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-23 19:20 | Report Abuse

MBM gives angpao

3 Sen dividend

Thank you commonsense for the excellent pick

Posted by commonsense > 2019-01-24 06:27 | Report Abuse

Hi icon8888,

Hopefully the company can pay higher dividend in FY19 given the better profit projection for FY19 (driven by the performance of Perodua) and the potential disposal of the alloy wheel business. In previous financial years, cash were needed to invest more on the alloy wheel plant (to improve its efficiency) and also to pay off most of the company's debt. The company is currently at a net cash position after having reduce debt to only RM193mil from RM416mil back in FY14.

The potential disposal of the alloy wheel business will definitely create more free cash (due to lower working capital requirement and lower capex spending) for the company which could be used to reward its shareholders by higher dividend payment.

Regards

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-24 06:58 | Report Abuse

Perodua eyes 4% rise in annual sales after record 2018
BY EMIR ZAINUL
KUALA LUMPUR: Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Pero- dua) wants to score another year of record sales in 2019 — with a 4% increase in sales to 231,000 units — after it achieved its best annual sales tally of 227,243 units last year.
Perodua president and chief executive o cer Datuk Zainal Abi- din Ahmad said the improvement will be driven by the Myvi and the newly introduced Aruz.
“Perodua’s aim to boost its sales by 4% this year will not only strengthen the brand but offer some relief to the Malaysian car industry, which is forecast to grow very minimally this year,” he said during the company’s Chinese New Year luncheon with the me- dia yesterday.

(The Edge)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-24 06:59 | Report Abuse

No slow down expected this year despite absence of tax holiday

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > 2019-01-24 17:55 | Report Abuse

Myvi engine fit in Aruz! Are you serious? Selling for 70+k lagi hahahaha. Let's also have a look at the Underpowered Avanza.

Posted by sell > 2019-01-24 21:48 | Report Abuse

Dividend 3 sen despite share up so much? Better sell on news.

Posted by Dylan Yong Hua Tai > 2019-01-28 13:23 | Report Abuse

Bull,... Avanza, Vios, Myvi, Aruz all use same engine. ... sama biji.
So if you buy Avanza actually same as Myvi 1.5.... hahah

Posted by mneo > 2019-02-06 08:48 | Report Abuse

Gong Xi Fa Cai....Happy CNY to everyone...:-)

Posted by money888 > 2019-02-06 08:56 | Report Abuse

MBMR has been trading above its upward sloping 20-Day Moving Average which is a good sign. In addition, the price just broke the resistance of 2.38 reinforcing the bullishness in the recent price movement. This breakout was accompanied by a higher than average traded volume which shows the enthusiasm of the traders to push the price higher and past this resistance hence giving a higher probability of a successful breakout.
https://au.i3investor.com/blogs/aux/2904.jsp

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-07 10:32 | Report Abuse

Saw an Aruz on the street. Quite handsome. Should sell well.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-07 11:04 | Report Abuse

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2019/01/31/1509832573--1989443369.pdf

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-07 20:41 | Report Abuse

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v1cFRZIqmKQ#fauxfullscreen

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-09 09:57 | Report Abuse

Hi Guys,

Some update on Perodua (indirectly MBMR). Perodua started out the year with a very encouraging sales of 20,100 cars in January 2019 which is an improvement of 13.6% vs January 2018 sales of 17,700. Aruz sales number for its first month was at 1,025 units which could have been a lot higher if not for the delay in the registration process. This issue has since been resolve. Recent bookings numbers for the new SUV is at 8,000 units which very encouraging. Sales of the SUV should pick up pace starting in February.

4Q18 result is expected to be out by the end of this month. Hopefully with the total Perodua sales of 59,040 cars during the quarter (an improvement of 10.8% vs 4Q17 sales of 53,307 units), MBMR could post a 4Q18 profit to shareholders of around RM40mil to bring the total FY18 profit to RM145mil. At the current share price, the company would only be valued at 6.9x PE.

Currently, MBMR is still consider as a “loss making” company (even though core operations are actually profitable) under some investment platforms like Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters, bursamarketplace and even i3investors due to the large impairment exercises made in 4Q17. This is because the platforms depend on reported earnings which would include one off items and non-operational items like gain/loss on disposal, impairment, fair value gains etc when compiling data performance of a company.

This has limited the appeal of MBMR to some of the investors as they would think that the company is a loss-making company. With the expected 4Q18 result, MBMR would officially be taken out of the “loss making” or “negative PE” categories and hopefully would invite more investors to look at MBMR.

Regards

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-09 16:48 | Report Abuse

They target to sell 30,000 Aruz this year , right ?

Now after one month launch already 8,000

Posted by VenFx > 2019-02-09 18:24 | Report Abuse

Appreciates for Icon8888's bro kindness in delivery on time facts from his observation .

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2019-02-12 09:48 | Report Abuse

so just hold on and pray?

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-12 10:56 | Report Abuse

Hi Lim,

I would not worry too much in terms of MBMR financial performance going forward. 4Q18 is expected to deliver good results driven by Perodua car sales numbers (refer to my earlier post).

In January, Perodua managed to only deliver 1,025 Aruz mainly due to delays in registration process. Bookings as of Jan for Aruz was 8,000 units. The issue has been solve. As of today, a total of 4,000 Aruz has already been delivered. I would expect better car sales numbers in Feb.

As mentioned earlier, FY19 growth would mainly be driven by growth in Perodua sales of which Aruz will contribute to a better profit margin mix to Perodua and indirectly MBMR. My target profit to shareholder for FY19 is RM170mil which would meant at the current price the company is only being valued at a mere 5.7x PE.

If the company managed to disposed off the Alloy wheel business, expect a further boost in profit by at least RM15-20mil per year post disposal. More importantly the more free cash that the company would have post disposal (from less working capital needs) which could be used to reward shareholders by better dividend payment. There should not be any more impairments for the business given that the remaining asset value (RM35mil as of Dec 17) for the alloy wheel is mainly related to the land value (which normally you don't impair). All the major impairments were done back in FY17.

Regards,

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-12 10:59 | Report Abuse

Gongxifacai commonsense

very grateful for your MBM Buy Call

benefited a lot of people

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-12 12:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Icon,

Gongxifacai to you too. Hopefully after the 4Q18 result, market will start to take notice of MBMR.

Too cheap for a company that has exposure to Perodua. Just look at UMW, the other company with exposure to Perodua. They are trading at more than double to that of MBMR.

Anyway, hope you make a lot of money this year.

Good luck.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-12 12:28 | Report Abuse

what about E&O ?

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-13 11:51 | Report Abuse

Hi qqq3,

I actually made a comment on E&O back in January. But it was mostly on its valuation. Back then it was trading at around RM1.07 or a market cap of more than RM1.4bil which i thought was a bit on the high side given it's earnings outlook for FY20 (projected profit of around RM70mil). At that price it would have translated to a fwd PE of 20.7x which is a lot higher than the average property industry PE.

Just like most other property companies, E&O is currently trading at a discount to its book value. That being said, if you still like to have exposure to the property industry, i think you can find better value companies at the moment. As an example, there is a property developer in Klang Valley that is also trading at below 0.5x PB just like E&O. However, the company balance sheet is a lot stronger, with cash that represent 25% of the company's market cap and with zero debt. Some of the lands in the company's book has not been revalued for more than 20 years with market value estimate to be more than 10x what it recorded in the books. There are even some property companies that currently trading at below 5x PE and below 0.5x PB albeit at a market cap that is a lot lower compared to E&O. Most of the value property companies are in the mid and small cap.

I was a bit surprise with the company announcement of the right issue exercise as i thought any future funding can be done via the sales of assets/ reclaim lands. Anyway, if you decide to buy into E&O today, i would advice you to subscribe to the right issue to prevent any future dilution and also be able to benefit from the issuance of the free warrants. Given the minimum target amount to be raised from the exercises is RM250mil and the and assuming the private placement can raised 10% of the current market cap (translating to around RM130mil), the right issue will need to raise around RM120mil. This means you will need to be prepared for an additional cash investment of at least RM0.09 per share (based on the 4 ordinary shares to 1 rights, the price of the rights would be RM0.37 per rights). Basically if you buy the stock at RM0.85 today, you will need to prepare another 9 sens for your future right issue subscription. Which means your total investment into E&O is actually RM0.94. Again this is based on the minimum case scenario. The maximum case is for the company to raised up to RM550 mil, again assuming the private placement raises RM130mil, this would mean the right issue needs to raise around RM420mil. This translate to an additional RM0.32 per share (or right issue at a price of RM1.28 based on 4 ordinary shares to 1 right issue ratio). This would mean your total investment of E&O is actually RM 1.17 per share.

However to entice investors to subscribe to the right issue, most of the time the company need to price the right issue at a discount to the price of the ordinary share ( if not people might not want to subscribe). Assuming the price of the shares ends up at around RM0.90 before the price fixing date, and assuming a discount of around 10%, i would assume the most optimum case is for the company to fixed the right issue price at around RM0.80 (the company would end up raising around RM400mil of cash from both the PP and RI exercises). This would mean you need to prepare an additional RM0.20 per share of your original investment of RM0.85 bring your total investment in E&O to RM1.05.

In conclusion, you need to make sure to prepare at least 20 sens extra per share for you to subscribe to the right issue.

Sorry for the long post. Hope you understand it.

Good luck.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-13 12:07 | Report Abuse

sense...


RI 1 for 4 is ok....not like Sapura 4 for 1.....

If it does not work out, I will go the distance, maybe average down a few days later.....if it works out , I may sell....RI with warrants....makes good sense to me....

I do not want exposures to properties per se......other property shares with better BV/ price no interest.....reputation is more valuable than BV. Some investments in E&O ok one......


anyway....I am looking for more details......thanks.....

Posted by commonsense_ > 2019-02-13 12:20 | Report Abuse

Why left out MBM promotion in E&O? Sold already?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-13 12:28 | Report Abuse

icon dont sell so fast one....

mbm is attractive but not a contrarian stock.....same like Serba....

actually between MBM and Serba.....which is prefered?

both are known as promoted stocks......both are known as hot favorites.....not contrarian stocks.......



osted by qqq3 > Feb 13, 2019 12:25 PM | Report Abuse X

maybe I too should choose one....Serba or MBM?

Posted by dusti > 2019-02-17 15:07 | Report Abuse

Good share but I think in short term Carimin is better. Get a few

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-24 17:04 | Report Abuse

Please take note that MBMR’s 4Q18 result would be out next week. Some investors might be a bit worried given the disappointing earnings results of some other companies last week. However, investors can rest assured that the upcoming result for MBMR would most probably be a good quarter based on the preliminary data that are available to the public.

MBMR profit is highly dependent on the performance of Perodua (via its 22.6% interest in the company). Perodua managed to sell a total of 59,040 cars in the 4Q18 which is an improvement of 15.5% and 10.8% vs 3Q18 and 4Q17 sales respectively. Based on this very encouraging sales numbers, I am expecting the company to deliver a total profit of RM40 mil for 4Q18 which will bring the 2018 full year profit to around RM145mil.

At the current share price, the company would only be valued at 7.0x PE which is low considering the average auto industry is trading at around 15x PE. UMW, who also has an exposure to Perodua, for example, is currently trading at 14 – 15x fwd PE. I just don’t see why MBMR needs to be given a very steep discounts in its valuation when compared to UMW, Bermaz or any other automotive related companies.

FY19 profit growth will be mainly driven by the still high demand of new Myvi, sales of new SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. Perodua managed to sell 20,100 cars in January 2019 which is a 13.6% improvement vs January 2018 sales.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-24 17:06 | Report Abuse

LOL

Posted by dusti > Feb 17, 2019 03:07 PM | Report Abuse

Good share but I think in short term Carimin is better. Get a few

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-24 17:07 | Report Abuse

mbm smart.........

but smart not fast.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-24 17:15 | Report Abuse

sifu qqq3, smart and fast not the only two parameters. Also there is weightage

a stock that is smart but not fast can win out by high weightage (in portfolio)

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-24 17:18 | Report Abuse

yeah...U got a point....I do not mean my comments as criticisms..........

just like Jaks......Jaks 45 to 58 also can make a lot of money if got buy enough......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-24 17:20 | Report Abuse

at the end of the day, how many is more important than how much it moved.............

Posted by Wyler > 2019-02-24 23:00 | Report Abuse

Perodua sold 59,040 of cars from oct to dec 18; 51,105 cars from Jul to Sept 18, so it nothing goes wrong, MBMR result should improve

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-27 18:18 | Report Abuse

Monster profit

Posted by AFMGT > 2019-02-27 20:16 | Report Abuse

Wow what a quarter. Thank you Perodua for another good year of sales.
Now waiting for an indepth review by commonsense

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-28 08:57 | Report Abuse

Hi AFMGT,

The 4Q18 PATAMI result of RM60mil was a lot higher than what I had earlier expected (I only projected a profit to shareholder of around RM40mil). This brings the FY18 profit to RM166mil. At the current price, MBMR is only being valued at a very undemanding valuation of 6.1x PE.

Another positive aspect from the 4Q18 result was the strengthening of MBMR’s balance sheet with debt falling to only RM145mil vs RM280mil a year ago. The company is currently in a net cash position for the 2nd consecutive quarters.

Free cash flow has also improved significantly which would provide the company with the possibility to reward its shareholders in the future by giving out higher dividend.

FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).

Given the very good result in 4Q18, I am projecting that the company will be able to achieve a profit of RM200mil for the full year of 2019 (this translate to an average profit of RM50mil / quarter). At the current share price, the company is being valued at a very low PE of only 5.1x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.

Regards.

Posted by OhYES > 2019-02-28 10:06 | Report Abuse

Hi Commonsense, thank you so much for the info.
Wondering do you hav any blog that we can follow and learn more insight from you? ^^
What would be your TP for MBMR?

Posted by PureBULL . > 2019-02-28 10:47 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 Monster profit
27/02/2019 18:18

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

MBMR, a great recovery stock.

Fast n Furious is in the Play ...

Posted by siowyf8888 > 2019-02-28 11:56 | Report Abuse

Hi Commonsense, other than MBMR. Is there any similar or potential counter that you suggest?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-28 12:03 | Report Abuse

fierce results.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-02-28 14:53 | Report Abuse

Jon choivo cant tahan d he say u keep promote, are u unethical or trying to goreng...

where is johnny english now i wonder

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-28 16:51 | Report Abuse

Hi OhYes,

Sorry, i don't actually have any blogs. i find it easier to just leaves comments on the i3 forum.

For the TP i am actually hoping for the market to price MBMR closer to its peers of around 12 to 15x PE. That being said a PE valuation of 10x would already be a big improvement for MBMR. At the current share price the company is only being valued at 5.4x fwd PE (base on a target profit of RM200mil for FY19).

This company has been under the radar of most investors for a long time due to the bad performance of its alloy wheel business of which the management had consistently make impairments on every 3Q and 4 Q of each financial years since FY14. However, management had decided to almost fully impaired the business in FY17 which means there will be low impairment for the alloy wheel business going forward. Any decision to disposed of the business (as to what was told by the chairman) would be a big positive catalyst for MBMR (both in terms of profit and also in terms of working capital needs).

The company had also impaired most of the auto component business under Hirotako back in FY17 as well. Which also means less possibilities of further impairment in the future.

Regards.

Posted by commonsense > 2019-02-28 17:10 | Report Abuse

Hi siowyf8888,

I actually do have some companies under my watchlist and of which i am currently monitoring. However, i would like to reserve from making the recommendation until i also have some of my inquiries on the said companies answered. But to give an indication, most of the companies under the watchlist are companies that are mostly under the radar of investors and trades at very undemanding PE and PB multiples.

A company that has already ample coverage would be Ewein which i first take notice back in Nov last year prior to 3Q18 result. They still have yet to announce their 4Q18 result but it should be out today. It's a property company in Penang with direct exposure to the Penang Transformation Plan Project. Their City of Dream projects is a collaboration with Zenith construction company which is the main contractor for the Penang Transportation Plan project. Valuation is cheap at less than 5x PE and 0.8x PB.

However, the only issue that need to be clarified is the company's cash flows. Hopefully the 4Q18 result can shed some light on this. That being said, given the undemanding valuation i had already started to buy into the company when the share price fell to below the 55 sens level. I did made recommendation in it's forum back in Nov but i think i might have jump the gun a bit.

Regards.

Posted by GLNT > 2019-03-01 09:31 | Report Abuse

Please sell down more. I want to collect.

Posted by OhYES > 2019-03-01 10:41 | Report Abuse

as you wish

Posted by trapped > 2019-03-01 22:23 | Report Abuse

So you got trap? Why today no post?

Posted by yongch > Feb 28, 2019 08:40 PM | Report Abuse
So shiok today saw good price shooting up! Infact this up just beginning any time should b ard 3.0!!!!!too bad didn't bought millions of share 1.80-2.0....Heng Ah!Ong Ah!!Huat Ah!!!....shiok!!!Shiok!!!!Shiok!!!!!....kikiki...:)

Posted by yongch > 2019-03-02 08:37 | Report Abuse

Hahaha...bought 1.80-2.0...now juz 2.60-2.71...wait la till 3.0then sell lo...good news is 38%big boss still never give up privatise this counter woh...supposed 2.5x but not think less than 3.0cannot lo...tp 3.0!!!!kikiki...tp3.0!!!

Posted by AFMGT > 2019-03-05 10:17 | Report Abuse

Hey fellow value investors,
Does anyone have any insights on the disposal of OMI Alloy? I know that it wont deter MBMR's growth but letting go of that small loss making unit will definitely further improve MBMR's P&L IMO. commonsense?