The price increases came after several mills confirmed that they had received official notices from the Chinese government. Prices rose steadily from the afternoon of Wednesday July 11 after a couple of days of uncertainty over whether the cuts would materialize.
The official notices require steelmakers to restrict production from July 10 to August 31 to curb air pollution.
The most-traded October rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.67% to 3,944 yuan ($591) per tonne during the night trading session on Wednesday, while the benchmark hot-rolled coil contract gained 1.54% to 4,013 yuan per tonne.
On Thursday morning, rebar prices in east China rose 50-60 yuan per tonne to 4,060-4,100 yuan per tonne. Hot-rolled coil prices in east China increased 20-30 yuan per tonne to 4,260-4,270 yuan per tonne.
Concerns over supply have emerged in the Chinese steel market, sources said.
“Most traders believe that several mills have really started to reduce production, or are going to do so,” a Tangshan-based trader said.
The trader said mills in the region such as Tangshan Ganglu Iron & Steel and Yanshan Iron & Steel have confirmed that they have received the government notices, and that they have started to limit production for several steel products in case a shortage of raw materials emerges following the restrictions.
The documents did not specify how much capacity will be cut, but said companies in industries such as steel, coking and cement plants should restrict production till August 31 to reduce the emission of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide.
Districts in Tangshan are being instructed to lower the density of such pollutants by 10-40% in the second half of this year, compared with the first half.
The move will mainly affect sintering and the production of coke, the processes of which results in such emissions. This could reduce the production of iron and steel, with an estimated 130,000-160,000 tonnes of hot metal to be reduced every day once the restrictions take effect, the source in Tangshan said.
Steel prices are expected to rise further, “especially in the short term,” Wang Guoqing, Lange Steel Information Research Center’s research director, said.
This is unlike the price drops seen in other commodity markets, especially after the United States unveiled plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
While prices for copper and zinc on the London Metal Exchange tumbled to almost their lowest in a year, and those for crude oil and chemicals had also declined in China’s domestic market, “steel prices have remained robust, driven mainly by domestic pollution-control policies,” Wang said.
But a segment of the market does not expect significant growth in the longer term for steel prices because downstream demand remains low.
Sellers of Chinese steel products have been more willing to export over the past two weeks, not just because of the depreciation of the yuan against the US dollar, “but also because they receive fewer domestic orders these days,” a Beijing-based trader said.
Profit margins for domestic downstream buyers in China have also thinned due to surging prices for raw materials over the past two years, which forces them to place orders for steel only when necessary, he added.
Other market participants believe that Tangshan’s production cuts will not affect the market as greatly as other measures such as the central government’s supply-side reforms and crackdown on substandard steel production. This is because Tangshan’s main focus is on cutting air pollution rather than steel output.
(1) The move will mainly affect sintering and the production of coke, the processes of which results in such emissions. This could reduce the production of iron and steel, with an estimated 130,000-160,000 tonnes of HOT METAL to be reduced every day once the restrictions take effect, the source in Tangshan said.
(2) Steelmakers OUTSIDE of CHINA are offering their products at COMPETITIVE prices, which will likely limit any uptick in the international
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Sintering & coking is the first step in Iron Making from Iron Ore..
These will force Chinese manufacturer to rely on Scrap Steel as raw material for Steel making, which is limited in supply with steep price
The above is precisely the reason why Iron Ore based Steel Manufacturers outside China, margin will expand...
Good morning, I monitored this counter since 1.7+ but all of a sudden it's 1.9 now and I missed the boat :( Would like to ask is it still worth to jump in now? Thanks masters
Fergus Chong: When the stock price up, ur account can’t log in, luckily I sold it yesterday. Now you are back, Please bring annjoo back to 1.6,1.5,1.4,1.3....0.80
This stock in Multiyear timeframe is SIDEWAYS and currently is oversold in big time frame. High chance recent price correction after hitting a recent high of 3.98 maybe ending. Weak strength now for downtrend and low chance for further downtrend High chance it goes sideways with upside bias with immediate target resistance of 2.40
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
GRACE1966
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Posted by GRACE1966 > 2018-07-12 20:25 | Report Abuse
Bro kelapa bomoh said 2mrw guaranteed 20-30 sen down. Standby.