Posted by observatory > 2021-03-28 22:09 | Report Abuse

Are there any regular users of Litrak highways who could share their experience and outlook?

My impression of LDP is that certain sections could be packed at peak hours. But that was before Covid-19 pandemic. With the change in work culture and proliferation of online shopping today, how long would it take for LDP traffic to recover to pre-pandemic level? Or will it ever?

How about SPRINT? My impression is traffic was light. Would that change when the pandemic is over? What are the developments around those areas that could add/ subtract traffic?

Posted by PaulTsai > 2021-03-30 08:58 | Report Abuse

@observatory Work from home has become the new norm for companies even post pandemic. The newly constructed MRT2 & LRT3 both provided significant intra-city transportation alternatives and greatly reduced LDP & Sprint traffic flow. That's the future outlook....in my dreams only.

The trains never solve any traffic problems in Malaysia. With construction of Damansara Pavilion, KL Eco City & Icon City, traffic will only get busier for these 2 highways.

By a daily LDP & Sprint highway user & a Litrak shareholder.

Posted by Zackmeiser > 2021-04-01 00:32 | Report Abuse

@observatory thanks for the information. so what happens to the company? That's the most important. How did the shareholder being rewarded? if by liquidation everyone is getting rm4 per share, that sounds pretty awesome to me.

Posted by observatory > 2021-04-02 23:56 | Report Abuse

@PaulTsai, it's reassuring to learn from a regular road user that he expects busy traffic :)

@Zackmeiser, I'm not familiar with the company. Based on news it had other concessions that offer continuous support.

RM4 per share upon liquidation? That's highly unlikely. It represents RM4 * 532 million > RM2 billion, or about 8 to 10 years of annual profits! Note the largest asset on its balance sheet, the Highway Development Expenditure, is depreciated yearly such that it is zero by the time concessions end. Litrak is a company of dwindling asset (and debt too).

Posted by observatory > 2021-04-09 22:03 | Report Abuse

Focusing on Litrak alone may risks missing out the bigger picture. There have been talks about a highway trust.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/08/29/tok-pa-govt-studying-proposal-to-set-up-highway-trust-body-in-malaysia-redu/1898404

http://www.sharetisfy.com/2020/08/highway-trust-is-probably-way-to-go.html

Posted by rahulsk1947 > 2021-04-22 12:21 | Report Abuse

3.82, 6month low! why has it been dropping the last 3 weeks?

Posted by observatory > 2021-04-22 20:30 | Report Abuse

The concessionaire of the Maju Expressway has deferred its bond coupon payment.

It was reported that
""The Covid-19 pandemic and resultant MCO slashed the average daily traffic of the Maju Expressway by 39.1% to only 88,970 vehicles in 2020 (2019: 145,987 vehicles). This in turn severely weakened the earnings and cash flow-generating ability of MESB, the concessionaire of Maju Expressway"

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/highway-operator-mex-ii-defers-bond-coupon-payment

This news is negative to highway concessionaire companies. Although LDP and Sprint may fare better, and Litrak has a stronger balance sheet, it would still be impacted by low traffic at least in the short term.

Posted by derricksyl > 2021-04-23 10:16 | Report Abuse

Can buy & keep for future value

Posted by chowwei > 2021-04-28 18:58 | Report Abuse

LITRAK 3.790
第二次 做股东

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-05-02 10:37 | Report Abuse

https://fifthperson.com/2020-litrak-agm/

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-03 10:18 | Report Abuse

1 year low now

look attractive to in

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-03 10:19 | Report Abuse

but not to forget

now no more toll hike

also LITRAK toll will finish soon

so no more growth can be expected in future

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-03 10:19 | Report Abuse

LITRAK cannot long term

in long term , they dont have new highways to collect toll already

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

current toll highways going to end soon

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

think not so soon la

maybe 10 years plus

Posted by speakup > 2021-05-06 11:35 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2021-05-05-story-h1564289502.jsp

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-07 15:22 | Report Abuse

Drop to 1 year low

Posted by speakup > 2021-05-08 12:06 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/05/08/chance-to-exit-from-four-concessions

really ah? if real, monday will limit up. if not real, no limit up.

Posted by valueinvestor79 > 2021-05-08 12:39 | Report Abuse

Yes this is positive news. Pending confirmation from Gamuda and the ministry . Litrak with EPS of 50sen and DPS of 25 sen. Net gearing of 0.13 . Current price is a steal irrespective of the news is confirmed or not.

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-08 18:44 | Report Abuse

I recall in 2019 Gamuda accepted the valuation at RM5.2

Given current concessions are shorter by 2 years, dividends has been paid out during the interim, and the temporary traffic reduction due to the pandemic, logically it should worth less now. I think RM4 plus should be fair? Probably at the lower end of RM4?

Posted by Ky Siow > 2021-05-08 21:12 | Report Abuse

Actually I not really understand the news, if the concession take over by highway trust, will bring any advantage to litrak? Anyone can explain it?

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-09 02:33 | Report Abuse

Motorists don't want to pay for higher toll. So the government tells concessionaires not to raise toll.

But the government is short of money to compensate concessionaires. Gamuda the concessionaire also needs money to fund its Penang Transport Master Plan project.

So Gamuda has come up with a "clever" financial engineering so that everyone can have the cake and eat it too!

Toll will be frozen. In return the government needs to offer longer concession period (like PLUS). And instead of a government buyout, a non-profit Highway Trust will raise money by issuing bonds to buy highways from Gamuda and Litrak minority shareholders. To sweeten the deal, the government also needs to provide tax exemption.

In a nutshell, it's to take advantage of the current low interest rate environment by swapping the more expensive equity ownership (since cost of equity is higher) with the cheaper bond (as cost of debt is lower). The government does not fork out a single cent but just use its power to sweeten the deal.

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-09 02:44 | Report Abuse

It reminds me of a tale from a Chinese idiom. The owner wanted to ration the food supply to his monkeys. So he tried to strike a deal by offering the monkeys 3 fruits in the morning and 4 in the evening. The monkeys protested.

But the owner had good knowledge of financial engineering. So he next proposed 4 fruits in the morning and 3 in the evening, which made the monkeys happy and accepted the better offer.

Posted by Ky Siow > 2021-05-09 09:33 | Report Abuse

So who can straight the point, this highway trust will bring any advantage to litrak shareholder or not? This is good or bad to litrak shareholders?

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-09 10:40 | Report Abuse

Of course it's good for the 43% shareholder Gamuda. It's their proposal!

As for the rest, it depends on individual entry price and the final offer price. A 4.5 offer should be good enough for anyone who bought at 3.7 last week, right?

Posted by valueinvestor79 > 2021-05-09 18:20 | Report Abuse

I am wondering why EPF keeps increasing its stake to 6.xx% 4% in the last few months. Attractive price or ?

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-10 00:00 | Report Abuse

EPF has several hundreds billions invested in local equity, restricted to about 200 companies. Some funds are managed by external managers which may have different strategies. So it's not a surprise to see EPF everywhere.

Not sure how EPF views Litrak. But personally I see Litrak as quite defensive at prevailing price. It has limited downside and offers stable dividends until concessions expire. It complements more risky holdings in a portfolio. However I don't expect much capital appreciation.

Posted by speakup > 2021-05-10 11:08 | Report Abuse

no limit up. must be fake news

Posted by speakup > 2021-05-10 22:08 | Report Abuse

now fake news in NST:

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2021/05/689207/gamudas-proposal-sell-four-highways-boon-government

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-11 00:09 | Report Abuse

Not fake news. This is just the opening move of a new chess game. The last game lasted over a year with no winner.

Posted by DreamHunter > 2021-05-11 00:18 | Report Abuse

ha ha ha

Posted by DreamHunter > 2021-05-11 00:18 | Report Abuse

yah kah

Posted by observatory > 2021-05-11 00:29 | Report Abuse

This is not the usual one to one chess. It's a multiple player simultaneous chess. That's why it's hard. One can either make a side bet or be a spectator.

Posted by Eurobeater > 2021-05-11 00:59 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/gamuda-confirms-plan-sell-four-highway-concessions-govt-denies-rm52b-speculated-value

Sale is just in talks only confirmed by Gamuda. The RM5.2 bil not quite true according to them

Posted by RainT > 2021-05-30 23:08 | Report Abuse

buy

.

.

.

Posted by observatory > 2021-06-01 19:40 | Report Abuse

Last Sat The Edge reported that IJM, PLUS and Ekovest are also interested in highway trusts.

Highway trust is like a magic bullet. There is no more toll hike for road users. Government avoids compensation due to toll freeze. Yet concessionaires can get the full value. Everyone can be happy as long as road users don't notice that toll concessions have been extended.

As of end Feb 2021, traffic volume at LDP and Sprint was at 90% and 70% of pre-MCO levels. Should expect these two months to be even worse.

Posted by cn21 > 2021-07-01 14:58 | Report Abuse

Pls advise if Gamuda set up business trust, will effect Litrak share price?

Posted by 2Invest > 2021-07-04 11:11 | Report Abuse

Dear @cn21. Setting up new trust fund won't have any impact on the share price but takeover offer does.

Posted by cn21 > 2021-07-06 21:26 | Report Abuse

thanks

Posted by investortrader88 > 2021-08-04 16:27 | Report Abuse

got some tickets at RM 3.61.will continue to.hold.good luck guys

Posted by investortrader88 > 2021-08-26 09:52 | Report Abuse

BURSA MALAYSIA TRADE STATISTICS - 25 AUG 2021

Participation / Status / Nett RM ( M )

Institutions Nett sellers - 189.1

Retail Nett sellers - 47.4

Foreign Nett buyers + 236.5



Source: theSundaily - Business

Posted by investortrader88 > 2021-08-31 13:55 | Report Abuse

Top 25 shareholders own 90.45% of Lingkaran Trans Kota Holdings Berhad


Gamuda Berhad
43.18%

Permodalan Nasional Berhad
20.82%

Public Mutual Berhad
6.97%

Employees Provident Fund of Malaysia
6.49%

Urusharta Jamaah Sdn Bhd
3.51%

Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited
3.24%

Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
1.02%

Khing Yii
1%

Bank Negara Malaysia National Trust Fund
0.73%

Chin Ann Lim
0.56%

Heng Goon
0.47%

Principal Global Investors, LLC
0.44%

Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P.
0.37%

Lion Global Investors Limited
0.36%

Hong Leong Asset Management Bhd
0.29%

UOB-OSK Asset Management Sdn. Bhd.
0.28%

Schroder Investment Management Limited
0.25%

Schroder Investment Management North America Inc.
0.14%

State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
0.097%

Irama Duta Sdn Bhd
0.062%

Norges Bank Investment Management
0.055%

Yusoff bin Daud
0.038%

Chee Low
0.028%

Sazally Bin Saidi
0.026%

Northern Trust Global Investments
0.024%

Posted by Airline Bobby > 2021-08-31 22:08 | Report Abuse

Takeover RM6 . How long ? Who knows ~

Posted by 2Invest > 2021-09-07 10:01 | Report Abuse

Hi @Airline. From what source you heard about takeover at RM6? If I am not mistaken, proposal during PH govt also about RM5.++ only if successful. Anyway, that's become history. Just enjoy the company dividend.

Take it as a FD with higher yield will do

Posted by maxx papa > 2021-09-22 11:39 | Report Abuse

Selangor moves to Phase 2 (can cross district), but why Litrak still drop? By right, this counter should fly?

Posted by makelittlemoney > 2021-09-22 22:00 | Report Abuse

people want to have higher return.. this return will be only 6-8% only

Posted by 2Invest > 2021-09-23 17:56 | Report Abuse

It's is a "FD" counter. :D

Posted by Stan Lee > 2021-09-24 16:35 | Report Abuse

hi can i ask what will happend if after 2032 all highway no income, this share will bcome no value?

Posted by makelittlemoney > 2021-09-25 08:39 | Report Abuse

treat it like company bankrupt, all the assest- liability then give back to share holder.. estimated base on current earning, it will have about RM 4. something

Posted by 2Invest > 2021-09-30 11:35 | Report Abuse

Hi @StanLee. That's very unlikely will happen. That's why the substantial shareholders are looking for an alternative by setting up trust to buy from the existing shareholders.

My personal view point, the substantial shareholders will try their best to get it done before 2023. As by 2023 the company's sukuk will be dued. By then the company dividend will be very very lumayan.

If there is no solution by 2032, infrastructure will belongs to the govt. The company will have a few options.
1. Distribute shareholder fund to all shareholders & delist from Bursa
2. Tentatively classed as PN17 company until the company manage to find a new business.