I will be honest to all my brothers to discuss. I think the downtrend of Axiata are:
1. External sentiment from US Federal Reserve of hike interest rate this coming 4th May 2022
2. Delay in 5G issue The dispute between the Mobile Network Operators (MNO); Axiata, Digi, Maxis, Umobile with Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB) about the share sale agreement that has not been agreed upon. The friction between the MNOs and DNB still exists. The biggest 4 MNOs have yet to agree on key terms in the Reference Access Offer (RAO) published by DNB. Those agreement outlines the costs, deliverables, requirements, including terms and conditions for the 5G network usage. It also serves as a base for commercial access agreements. Supposedly, the Single Wholesale Network (SWN) through DNB will enable the people to enjoy cheaper 5G service. It is because only one company would be involved in providing infrastructure which is DNB while telecommunications companies can focus 100% on providing the service. The government already listen to noise make by MNOs by making an offer a 70% equity stake in DNB to MNOs as a goodwill gesture to the MNOs in exchange for supporting DNB’s SWN. But these degil MNOs wanted to have Dual Wholesale Network (DWN) instead of SWN with 70% stake to them. This make 5G network rollout been very slow and making the investor huge source of frustration. The MNOs Maxis, Digi, Umobile, Celcom now try to negotiate like a cartel which forcing the government to go to Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs. If the agreement was not signed by the deadline end of June 2022, the deals might be struck with the 19 MVNOs such as Altel, redONE, TuneTalk, XOX, RedTone and etc etc. This will risk the 4 biggest MNOs in terms of pricing later on. If they did not sign by the deadline, they may not receive the preferential rate.
2. Delay of Bank Negara Malaysia The Bank Negara Malaysia also could not announced in time for the 5 winners of Digital Banking License with the reason of delayed, because of pending completion of a legal process.
3. Delay of Celcom-Digi merger The MCMC has made a statement of issues (SOIs) against Celcom & Digion pertaining to preliminary concerns over market competition.The ball is now in the telecommunications courts to address back the concerns to be presented to MCMC within 30 days. (Celcom&Digi, why not just accept the 70% stake of DNB maa, the MCMC then i think will sure bypass this SOI of prelimary concerns. sigh)
4. On 22 April, Axiata made an announcement offered 3,198,800 ordinary shares to their employees. This will result a bit of dilution.
faridfet, is this article compiled by you? if it is not copied from somewhere, then you must have done a lot of research about these telco companies especially on the "delay in 5G issue" which is pretty long and very informative and it gives every investor in this counter the insights into what has happened so far about the delay of all the various factors thus contributing to the downtrend of most telco companies involved in providing the service. are you able to provide an email for easier and more personal contact? do you invest in other counters? share with us.
All the information is collected thru my reading for my personal analysis. What i shared depend by the context. Sometimes i would make my own conclusion and interpretation after in-depth research. Sometimes i just shared directly from the news with the links too but what can i confirmed that my reading source will always from legit broadsheet such as The Edge, The Star, Focus Malaysia, Malaysian Reserve, Bursa Announcement, Annual Report/Quater report. Just an ordinary person who is enthusiast for investment. We can still contact via here.
While i don't really rely on the TP provided by the IB, their analysis does provide a good insight on their outlook. Certainly their outlook doesn't look so gloom which necessitates the attack like ones recently. In fact, most of them are quite positive with the outlook of Axiata.
faridfet, you are very fast with the news. if the Celcom-Digi merger is successfully approved, what will happen to the Axiata shares and Digi shares. is there any chance for the shareholders of these two companies to hold the Mergedco.?
@Hemsley this is because the factor of 5G issue and Celcom-Digi merger is outweigh than announcement of digital banking license. Boost is their only Axiata digital business portfolio not a core business or their main revenue.
@Hemsley, if Maxis and Digi's quarterly results are of any indication, the coming quarterly results for Axiata will most likely be a disappointment. Let's see if it can buck the trend.
Buy now to accumulate, digital banking license will open more market gap and boost up the business ecosystem. Axiata technical chart already shows the bottom of long-term support, the stock price is difficult to fall below, now the stock price breakthrough upward, which is a good sign, in coming short-term will appear upward trend, there are the opportunities goreng again. Lets see. hihi
The more cheaper the price, there is people will buy more to keep ... Long term invester is look on future not the short term profit take only like speculator ... hehe
simply oversold (Pressure to sign on DNP agreement) by epf (Mar'22-12.1% vs May'22-12.1% shareholding)..price adjustment from EPF only...end game will be all telco sign still for DNP and move forward n epf will unlock their price again with BUY:) happy investing..
@faridfet what your view for the court case between Celcom and Tune Talk shareholder? How long do you think it will delay the merger between celcom-digi?
it is coming after EGM clear some big block on indonesia project:) btw overall regional perform good exclude sri langka n epf gg in EGM so no more big block on share price stress d for not..happy investing:)
If u ever study how the 5g work you will understand who have the most tower who is the front runner...see how huawei did..use most of tower to reduce costing etc..now they gaining the thousand of towers over asean country..who ever hv the bigger patient who will win big no matter in capital or superp dividend yield in 2-3 years happy investing^^
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
investortrader88
3,205 posts
Posted by investortrader88 > 2022-04-25 11:30 | Report Abuse
Managed to get some tickets from my queue at RM 3.48.good luck guys