Posted by vic_amat87 > 2018-08-27 07:22 | Report Abuse

Up rm1 today

Posted by ramada > 2018-08-27 17:57 | Report Abuse

Very good result. Congrats to Tan Teng Boo.
https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=7052

Posted by tmp14680 > 2018-08-27 18:02 | Report Abuse

Great result

Posted by kokojerry > 2018-08-27 20:09 | Report Abuse

Limit up up up!!!

Posted by vic_amat87 > 2018-08-27 20:28 | Report Abuse

Rm1 limit up tomorrow. Profit surged nearly 50%

Posted by lizi > 2018-08-27 20:31 | Report Abuse

GENG

Posted by Vicky5356 > 2018-08-30 10:34 | Report Abuse

What happen today? drop so much...

Posted by vic_amat87 > 2018-08-30 15:35 | Report Abuse

Dunworry, it willcont the rally

Posted by Natasha Amin > 2018-08-30 17:24 | Report Abuse

padini is such a pain in the a**.
give me this love hate relationship

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 23:30 | Report Abuse

Padini outlets seem to be well patronised.

Posted by Hasnulhalim88 > 2018-09-25 00:14 | Report Abuse

Please be cheaper

Posted by finster > 2018-10-04 12:03 | Report Abuse

looking for a good price to in

Posted by sfy1001 > 2018-10-23 17:10 | Report Abuse

What happen with this counter? Why suddenly close with such high price?

Posted by Ben Son Sow > 2018-10-23 18:50 | Report Abuse

mostly because EPF

Posted by TraderSeeds > 2018-11-05 09:49 | Report Abuse

Tot this counter shud be benefited.

Posted by scotthong > 2018-11-11 01:57 | Report Abuse

https://hongweigiet222.wixsite.com/website/single-post/2018/11/11/PADINI-7052

Please support

Posted by Kawkaw > 2018-11-17 11:49 | Report Abuse

Can you give good price to entries in monday..
No harm for no get...

Posted by wkl1063 > 2018-11-29 17:14 | Report Abuse

wa padini not good weihh QR

Posted by abubuk200 > 2018-11-29 17:15 | Report Abuse

gg.com

Posted by wkl1063 > 2018-11-29 17:18 | Report Abuse

gross profit, revenue, net profit all drop... this time is real bear liao....

Posted by vinc3nt > 2018-11-29 17:24 | Report Abuse

nice

Posted by UnicornP > 2018-11-29 17:26 | Report Abuse

Revenue is strong but store expansion caused expenses to rise a lot..

Posted by apolloang > 2018-11-29 19:55 | Report Abuse

so lousy results,yet 5.52? ib's tipu retailers ar?

Posted by DTZW 1882 > 2018-11-30 09:23 | Report Abuse

will limit down?

Posted by magus > 2018-11-30 09:34 | Report Abuse

FY18 eps of 27 sen and at a fair PER of 15, its price should reasonably be at rm4.05, and given the latest quarterly result, and the likelihood of USD pressures on costs and margins, there is cause for caution.

Posted by bose00 > 2018-11-30 10:23 | Report Abuse

Tax holiday ... expected can profit more. What a bummer

Posted by omgimnoob > 2018-11-30 10:43 | Report Abuse

Wahhh since when USD come into picture. But if dividend yield of 3.6% price should be 2.70

Posted by lizi > 2018-11-30 10:46 | Report Abuse

both revenue and earning deteriorate a lot

Posted by magus > 2018-11-30 11:59 | Report Abuse

@ omgimnoob, USD come into picture coz their imports, even those from China, are increasingly denominated in USD. The USD has been strengthening these last 2 months and that means the costs of their purchases would have become more expensive and unless the company raises their prices, their margins will not recover that easily. And if you bought its share today at rm4.80 and held it for a year and assuming the dividend paid remained at 11.5 sen annually, your dividend yield would only be at around 2.4%. So barring any paper profits from an increase in its share price, it will be better to put your money in FD.

Posted by Parkson18 > 2018-11-30 12:44 | Report Abuse

Pity our EPF money. Buy what shares kena short kaw kaw. Why not buy Parkson? Only 28 sen if retail stocks is what you interested.

Posted by commonsense > 2018-11-30 15:59 | Report Abuse

Hi magus,

Agree with you that the USD might effect the purchasing cost of Padini. However given that most of Padini suppliers are based in China, i would expect management to renegotiate some of the purchases since the Yuan also has strongly depreciated vs USD, cotton price has come down vs 2Q18 and the effect of US tariff to China (i believed most chinese suppliers would not want to risk losing customers outside of the US given the uncertainties of the trade war).

If you look at previous quarter results, gross margins actually has always ranges between 38-43% of revenue. Given that rental and staff cost are mostly fixed (still increase year on year to reflect the higher number of outlets, higher rental etc) pat margin of the group will highly dependent on the level of revenue that the company can achieved.

Investors need to wait and see next quarter results to know if the revenue level could go back up to above RM400mil like the previous 3 quarters.

That being said, even if the company managed to record full year PAT of RM200mil (or RM50mil per quarter), valuation wise, the company is still currently trading at 15.7x fwd PE. Which is still expensive for my taste.

If revenue going forward maintain at a level as the most recent quarter and let say margin improve a bit for the company to record a PAT of RM100mil (or average of RM25mil per quarter), current share price values the company at 31.3x fwd PE. Very expensive unless management has plans to increase the profit substantially (online maybe?).

Out of curiosity, where are you investing now magus? is it in FD?

Thanks.

Posted by TanChinku > 2018-11-30 16:56 | Report Abuse

Drastic drop!!!! when is gloves turn??

Posted by Kawkaw > 2018-11-30 17:48 | Report Abuse

What price q buy next whole weeks.

Posted by pussycats > 2018-11-30 18:25 | Report Abuse

Dead standing... Cos big dropped

Posted by lizi > 2018-11-30 21:44 | Report Abuse

no more growth...price at high side, very risky....

Posted by starfish88 > 2018-12-01 15:25 | Report Abuse

Maybe continue to drop next week... all research house cut target price.

Posted by kakasi123 > 2018-12-03 10:32 | Report Abuse

i would not value padini at 15 p/e. because it has stores, it has online, it has oversea expansion. this stock easily worth forward p/e 25, which is more than rm6

Posted by kakasi123 > 2018-12-03 10:40 | Report Abuse

too cheap, time to collect more

Posted by starfish88 > 2018-12-03 12:27 | Report Abuse

keep dropping..

Posted by starfish88 > 2018-12-03 12:29 | Report Abuse

Will it drop till RM3.00..?

Posted by ssiongloh > 2018-12-03 12:35 | Report Abuse

what Alfred Chen had mentioned to this?

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2018-12-03 12:35 | Report Abuse

Will drop to 2+ v soon given its 17+ Pe

Posted by magus > 2018-12-03 13:09 | Report Abuse

@kakasi123, forward pe at 25? what have you been smoking? the online and overseas expansion? its online sales is totally insignificant and overseas just started. These are growth avenues will take great effort and time b4 we can see any meaningful contribution to sales and more importantly profits. Right now, they are just burning money. Just check out its segment reporting, no mention at all of its online and overseas contribution, that itself indicates how irrelevant the 2 segments are. So we are still left with the domestic market which in my opinion is already saturated with their stores. Expect more difficulties in the near term. Given their large cash pile, they should raise the dividend payout so that the current share price can be more reasonably supported. A minimum of 20 sen annual dividend will at least make a 4.50 share price more palatable, and even then it is still less than the FD rate, but at least it shows the investors that the company is concerned about making its shares attractive.

Posted by commonsense > 2018-12-03 15:06 | Report Abuse

Hi kakasi123,

Based on your target price of RM6 and PE of 25x, it means that you are actually targeting a full year profit of RM160mil for FY19. This means that for the next 3 quarters, you are expecting that the company post an average of RM47mil PAT per quarter.

Assuming the margins improved to what was achieve in FY18, in order for the company to achieve that type of results it will need to post an average revenue that is above RM450mil per quarter which I am not saying it is impossible, as they had actually achieved it before. But what worries me is that, if during the tax holiday itself (products are cheaper by at least 6%) they can only achieve a sales of RM330mil, what would be the catalyst for the company to reach a sales of RM450mil? I am not sure they can reach this if they only depend on the physical outlet. Maybe they will need to focus on holiday period sales. I have my doubts but i sincerely hope they can achieve this.

On the PE target of 25x, investors will expect a PAT growth that is higher than average to commensurate paying an expensive price for Padini. Even if the price remain constant at RM6 and PAT of the company grow at a rate of 20% per annum. After 4 years at a profit of RM330mil, the company's PE would still be 12x. If you think that's logical for Padini (not impossible as well), then you need to ask yourself where will the profit growth comes from?

Higher profit margin? Not sure as looking at the company's financial it seems that margin is actually going down.

More stores opening? Most padini stores are located in shopping malls. Unless you think the numbers of mall will double in 4 years and padini stores itself will double, depending on aggressive stores opening might not deliver the growth that you expect. Like magus had highlighted, padini stores is already can be found every where.

Which brings us to export or online sales growth. This i think is possible but based on the most recent financials it would not be as soon as we hope.

That's why i think, if you are interested in Padini, it is better for you to wait for the next quarter result to see whether the sales level will increase or stay low as 1Q19.

If you are already invested in the company, i would suggest you diversified a bit of your position as given the depressing market condition at the moment, there are actually a lot of companies that are undervalue but still provide profit growth for FY 2019.

One of the companies in question is MBMR.

The company is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest. Valuation is cheap at only 5.3x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already at RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17.

Please go through analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions.

Good luck. Hope Padini's financial will improve next quarter.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-12-03 15:37 | Report Abuse

run run run… kikikikii

Posted by RainT > 2018-12-03 15:46 | Report Abuse

time for bottom fishing ?

Posted by stock_investor > 2018-12-03 17:40 | Report Abuse

Stil early to buy lar. Based on my experience , need to wait until mid of january. If look for short term, myeg then. U know i know la.

Posted by Flintstones > 2018-12-03 17:40 | Report Abuse

Some taobao and online merchants can sell cheaper than padini and brands outlet. Online merchants have disrupted women and kids fashion. It is a matter of time when padini will see increased competition in the online space.

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-12-03 20:19 | Report Abuse

Ini semua Alfred Chen punya pasal

Posted by RainT > 2018-12-03 23:13 | Report Abuse

IF see back the qtr result, usually Q1 is the most weak

coming Q2FY2019 from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018 will have Xmas , Deepavali & year end sales

next Q3FY2019 is from Jan 2019 to mar 2019 will have CNY & new year days sales

so sales is expected to go up & also profit the same (if no any shock)

so it is a good buy now ?

anyone have opinion about tis ?