Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-02-19 18:46 | Report Abuse

I meant "now" instead of "not" ahah. Typo.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-02-19 23:45 | Report Abuse

Me still in the boat. Hahaha. The US is expected to raise the interest rate twice at least this year. I have faith USD will bound back.

Posted by ongmari > 2018-02-20 09:49 | Report Abuse

housing market still bullish is US?

Posted by ongmari > 2018-02-20 09:51 | Report Abuse

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/us-housing-starts-jan-2018.html

Posted by huahtai98 > 2018-02-20 22:12 | Report Abuse

Buy on dips

Posted by geary > 2018-02-21 07:39 | Report Abuse

http://www.valuewalk.com/2018/02/charlie-munger-learn-great-investor/

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-22 10:04 | Report Abuse

冯时能冷眼方程式：反向＋成长＋时间＝财富

五项原则：

（１）不要企图去抓时机(Timing)，因为根本没有人知道何时才是最低。

（２）坚守反向策略，在所有人都悲观时，大胆买进股票。

（３）以企业的赚钱能力及资产价值，作为选股标准。

（４）只买五星级股票，作为长期投资。

（５）最好是买股息率比银行定期存款利息高一倍的股票。

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-22 17:33 | Report Abuse

8 cents special dividend

Posted by Aries > 2018-02-22 17:43 | Report Abuse

Super dividend stock.

Posted by AllWin > 2018-02-22 17:50 | Report Abuse

But the dividend is lower compare to last year... hmm.

Posted by Patrick13 > 2018-02-22 17:54 | Report Abuse

Do note that this is just the special dividend which is extra given to all shareholders.
I cannot blame them so much because Liihen is one of few counters which able to declare dividend every quarter and special dividend in Bursa Malaysia!

Posted by RocketRider > 2018-02-22 17:55 | Report Abuse

Sure throw down by investor :(

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-22 18:09 | Report Abuse

I'll consider to add a little if it drops

Posted by mywuneng > 2018-02-22 18:21 | Report Abuse

i missed the opportunity when it dropped to 3.0x, wondering if the discount sales will be back again ??

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-22 18:21 | Report Abuse

Current year prospects

The recent world economic outlook update for 2018 was positive with brighter prospects,
optimistic markets albeit challenges ahead. The tax reform in U.S. on December 2017 are
expected to have sizable effect on the investment and business activities, which in term will
boost growth, job and wages.

However, the main challenge that the Group faces is at the local front where the acceleration
of production costs and shortages of workforce will continue to affect the Group’s financial
performance. The recent weakening of USD will affect the Group’s operating results,
financial performance and liquidity. In view of that, the management will continue to focus on
the Group’s core products by diversifying its product range to strengthen the market position
and expand the customer base and simultaneously continue to adopt an effective cost
management. With better controllable cost structure and wider sales market base, the Group is
committed to deliver a favourable result for year 2018.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-02-22 18:30 | Report Abuse

For those looking quarter to quarter. Next one should be good, as we will get the insurance payout gain. And its back to full capacity production, with no overtime charges.

Fairly ok with the results. My expectations for the results is not high considering how cheap it is.

Posted by Aries > 2018-02-22 18:33 | Report Abuse

RocketRider, investor won't throw down Liihen. Only Speculator or trader will. We will add everytime when it drops below it fair price.

Posted by Slash_13 > 2018-02-22 18:36 | Report Abuse

will add more USD could be strength again

Posted by apple168 > 2018-02-22 18:43 | Report Abuse

Liihen was previously strong and excellent dividends payout. With the current disappointing quarterly report (profit drop by 20%) and unable to maintain previous glorious dividends payout, we believe something wrong brewing in Liihen. If no active restructuring from the management and exploring new profitable line up, we are seeing Liihen going into sunset company soon... nothing will grow forever if no constant improvement to adapt to ever changing business environment..

Posted by value88 > 2018-02-22 19:05 | Report Abuse

Profit down QoQ and YoY.
Q4 used to be a strong quarter for LiiHen, but this Q4's earning is the lowest if compared against Q1 to Q3 FY17..
I suppose market do not like to see this earning result, and likely to sell down LiiHen tomorrow.

Posted by Patrick13 > 2018-02-22 19:08 | Report Abuse

Insurance claim already recognised in this quarter, amounted to RM5.857mil, almost offset against assets and inventories written off totaling RM5.925mil.

Jon Choivo For those looking quarter to quarter. Next one should be good, as we will get the insurance payout gain. And its back to full capacity production, with no overtime charges.

Fairly ok with the results. My expectations for the results is not high considering how cheap it is.
22/02/2018 18:30

Posted by chiahs > 2018-02-22 19:23 | Report Abuse

Malakoff share price hold so far, where people expected big drop due to dividend payout.... similar will apply to Liihen.

Posted by Larrytrader > 2018-02-22 19:36 | Report Abuse

Gg looks like a bad result

Posted by huahtai98 > 2018-02-22 19:44 | Report Abuse

Qtr result already priced in.....maybe some initial reaction...then recovery.
Price only ard 3.20 now.

Posted by Jason Lim > 2018-02-22 19:50 | Report Abuse

Price will hold.

Posted by RainT > 2018-02-22 20:28 | Report Abuse

Reasons to sell

Core profit reducing
1. Net profit 15m
Add back 2m (stock write off) and 3.9m(property write off)
Less out insurance claim 5.8m
Core profit is around 15m
QoQ drop -21%
YoY drop -25%
(For this I just take all the items relate to fire only, forex I don't take out as it is recurring in coming qtr).
No use to depend on the insurance claim in coming qtr as its core profit already in reducing trend, its biz is not good as before anymore.

For me when analyse profitability of the company will see the core profit and from here it seem that Liihen profit is start to be on reducing trend.

2. Forex effect
Q4FY17 rate is 4.15
Next qtr (Jan 18 to Mar 18) forex should be around 4.00-3.90 something.
So do expect further forex loss and sales amount will reduce. Even sales volume high, sales value will reduce due to forex rate.

3. Management hint
From the Q4FY17 qtr report in prospect, management already hinted clearly again that it will be challenging environment in coming qtrs.
Even if US economy is good but in local front have problems, such as labour costs etc, it will be tough environment.

4. Furniture industry
For those buying into Liihen due to its low PE, and hope that its PE can go up, share price go up, please don't hope.
Check back most furniture counters, its PE is low and high DY and share price stuck there cannot move.
Again those hold more than 02 years in Liihen will know what I mean. Its like after a long roller coaster, it back to square one.

5. Lack of expansion/growth
Maybe I m not well updated, but I feel Liihen grow is quite slow compare to others counters. I should move my fund to other undervalued and have good grow prospect for its share price to grow.

6. Others
Cash balance reducing, it might be temporary and if continue will affect profit. Need wait see next qtr how its improve.

Hope to get some different opinion from other forumers.
Once we see different opinion/idea and learn, there is our improvement.

P/S: Only reason good of Liihen is high dividend only.

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-02-22 21:30 | Report Abuse

No hedging at all for its foreign currency is also a main factor reducing its profit by around 20%. Expecting further deduce of net profit by 25 to 30% for next (Jan-Mar) Q with 3.9-4.0 forex. With PE maintained around 7-8, Share price should be 2.2-2.5 theoretically. Practically has to ask Mr. Market tomorrow onwards...

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-02-22 21:31 | Report Abuse

Group to hedge its foreign currency sales are as follows: -
Forward Foreign Currency Contracts Contract Fair Changes in Fair
Value(RM’000) Value(RM’000) Value(RM’000)
US Dollar – less than l year Nil Nil Nil

Posted by mywuneng > 2018-02-22 22:30 | Report Abuse

interesting topic, as I remembered I read it somewhere article saying that LiiHen has 30% hedging, where Hevea has 50% hedging.....

Posted by RainT > 2018-02-22 22:30 | Report Abuse

Forex effect is undeniable in most of Bursa companies...when MYR strengthen, export counters benefit and vice versa

So for the core profit I do not take it the forex effect as I feel Liihen as main sales export cannot run away from forex effect

But if the core profit show improvement, still ok, but it is not

Operating costs have start to eat Liihen profit, Q1FY18 will be worse, lets wait and see

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-02-22 23:17 | Report Abuse

Hevea should have 70% hedging.

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2018-02-22 23:18 | Report Abuse

Sell TP 2

Posted by apple168 > 2018-02-23 06:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Patrick13 > 2018-02-23 08:19 | Report Abuse

Forex effect shall be included when calculating the core operating profit. This is because revenue & purchases registered with higher or lower forex rate will be subsequently addressed by realised & unrealised forex loss or gain at the certain period, which give us clearer overall picture.

People keen to find out the threats/risk, I'm looking for opportunities/strength.

Liihen registered the second highest revenue of RM185mil, slightly lower than 3Q17 of RM190mil. And inventories balance is at RM88mil, up by 11% compared to 3Q17, in line with increase in trade payables by 16% at RM79mil. That's mean Liihen's customer order on hand still growing and increasing. And Liihen did diversify its market base to avoid over-rely on US market. You may check that Malaysia and Asia market improved by 50% and 20% compared to FY2016 from the Segment Information.

And don't you think while most of the exporter companies suffered troubles for the increase in material costs and unable to pass-on cost to customers, that's only 2 main risks to Liihen eg. forex fluctuation and increase in labour cost. And btw increase in labour cost and material costs, which impact is more critical to the manufacturers?

No buy or sell call, think yourself carefully.

Posted by omgimnoob > 2018-02-23 08:26 | Report Abuse

Today drop like cempedak!

Posted by newbie911 > 2018-02-23 08:27 | Report Abuse

Run !!!

Posted by akulamatata > 2018-02-23 08:34 | Report Abuse

Abang shareinvestor88,Hevea will drop to rm0.45,Tp

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-23 09:02 | Report Abuse

Selling down has started :)

Posted by WiseVictor > 2018-02-23 09:20 | Report Abuse

Those people who said bad result and sell, they seems like buying after told sell call lol

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-23 09:22 | Report Abuse

Haha this is interesting..

Posted by Beza > 2018-02-23 09:24 | Report Abuse

Will wait at 2.2-2.5 after Exdate.

Posted by Beza > 2018-02-23 09:25 | Report Abuse

Not now!

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-23 09:37 | Report Abuse

Sien

Posted by Lanesra > 2018-02-23 09:46 | Report Abuse

there are times where i dont even bother commenting in the forums anymore, but i cannot tahan
these trolls haha. good job.
+ 1 for Patrick123 comment

Posted by apple168 > 2018-02-23 17:07 | Report Abuse

Very interesting day.. shareholders hv strong faith on Liihen..

Posted by Aries > 2018-02-23 17:08 | Report Abuse

Sure we have.

Posted by baccarat > 2018-02-23 17:22 | Report Abuse

Latest TP 4.18

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-23 17:47 | Report Abuse

We continue to like Lii Hen due to its strong balance sheet (net cash per share 29.6 sen as at 31 Dec 17), generous dividend payout (dividend yield of 7.5%) and ongoing efforts to adopt effective cost management. Moreover, we expect stable growth in the global furniture market due to growing real estate industry and increasing number of global retail stores.

Reiterate BUY with a lower TP of RM4.18 based on 10x FY18 EPS of 41.8sen.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 23 Feb 2018

Posted by mmm222 > 2018-02-23 18:00 | Report Abuse

Eps of 41.8 sen is history ,future earnings more important.

Posted by darkstar > 2018-02-23 19:35 | Report Abuse

1USD: 3.92MYR