Oct 4 (Reuters) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday after OPEC+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure from some countries for a bigger boost to production. The producer club's decision to keep increasing oil output gradually sent prices sharply higher, adding to inflationary pressures that consuming nations fear will derail an economic recovery from the pandemic. read more OPEC+ agreed in July to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts. Brent crude settled up $1.98, or 2.5%, to $81.26 a barrel. It rose 1.5% last week for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, and was back up to highs last seen in 2018.
U.S. oil settled up $1.74, or 2.3%, to $77.62 a barrel after gaining for the past six weeks, and was at its highest since 2014. "Given the demand picture and the outcome of the OPEC meeting, the overall sentiment around crude is bullish," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. Demand for coal and natural gas has exceeded pre-COVID-19 highs with oil closely trailing, according to energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency. Three-quarters of global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, with less than a fifth by non-nuclear renewables. OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, has faced pressure from some countries to add back more barrels to the market as demand has recovered faster than expected in some parts of the world.
Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters recently that producers were considering boosting output by more than had already been agreed. read more The oil price rally has also been fuelled by an even bigger increase in gas prices, which have spiked by 300%, prompting switching to fuel oil and other crude products to generate electricity and for other industrial needs.
PETALING JAYA: Interstate travel nationwide will resume starting Monday (Oct 11), says Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob. The Prime Minister said this during a special address at 3pm on Sunday (Oct 10).
"With the achievement of almost 90% of the population being fully vaccinated, therefore I would like to announce that interstate travel will be allowed. This will begin on Monday (Oct 11). “Interstate travel is only allowed for those who are fully vaccinated. “The lifting of the prohibition on interstate travel does not apply for visits to localities placed under enhanced movement control order," he added. Ismail Sabri also said fully vaccinated Malaysians can travel abroad without MyTravelPass effective Monday (Oct 11)...
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* Brent almost back to Nov levels before first Omicron reports OPEC+ decision reflects easing concern of oil surplus * U.S. State Department says Iran talks show modest progress * POLL-U.S. crude stockpiles seen lower for sixth straight week * Coming Up: Weekly API inventory data due at 2130 GMT
Jan 4 (Reuters) - Global benchmark Brent crudejumped on Tuesday to $80 a barrel, its highest since November, as OPEC+ agreed to stick with its planned increase for February based on indications that the Omicron coronavirus variant would have only a mild impact on demand.
Brent futures settled up $1.02, or 1.3%, at $80 a barrel, almost back to the level they were at on Nov. 26 when reports of the new variant first appeared, sparking a more than 10% decline in prices on that day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $76.99.
"The oil market is bullish today as a result of optimism sourced from today's monthly OPEC+ meeting, which is helping oil prices trade higher," said Rystad Energy's head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen. OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, agreed to stick to its planned increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil output in February. Its decision reflects easing concerns over a big surplus in the first quarter, as well as a wish to provide consistent guidance to the market. Crude stockpiles in the United States, the world's top consumer, were forecast to have dropped for a sixth consecutive week, analysts polled by Reuters estimated ahead of weekly industry data due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT), followed by the government's report on Wednesday. The White House welcomed the decision by OPEC+ to continue increases in production which will help facilitate economic recovery, a spokesperson said. "It appears that the market is making the bet that Omicron is the beginning of the end of COVID-19," said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at United ICAP. In Britain, people being hospitalised with COVID-19 were generally showing less severe symptoms than previously. While in France, the finance minister said some sectors were being disrupted by the surge of the fast-spreading Omicron variant, but there was no risk of it "paralysing" the economy and stuck to a forecast of 4% GDP growth in 2022. Global manufacturing activity remained strong in December, suggesting Omicron's impact on output had been subdued. However, analysts warned OPEC+ may have to change tack if tension between the West and Russia over Ukraine flares up and hits fuel supplies, or if Iran's nuclear talks with major powers make progress, which would lead to an end to oil sanctions on Tehran. "We think these two events represent major wildcards that could quickly alter the price trajectory and test OPEC's rapid response mechanism," RBC analysts said in a note. The U.S. State Department said talks with Iran have shown modest progress and that United States hopes to build on that this week. Libyan output is likely to be about 500,000-600,000 bpd lower in the coming weeks, more than offseting the planned monthly increase in OPEC+ production, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics Caroline Bain said.
Libya's state oil firm said on Saturday oil output would be reduced by 200,000 bpd for a week due to maintenance on a main pipeline, adding to disruptions two weeks ago after militia blocked operations at the Sharara and Wafa oilfields. However, Bain said Capital Economics remained of the view that as OPEC+ continues to raise production in the coming months and demand growth normalises, oil prices will come under downward pressure. Capital Economics' year end-2022 forecast for Brent crude is just $60 per barrel.
NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday, extending their new year's rally, on escalating unrest in OPEC+ oil producer Kazakhstan and supply outages in Libya. Brent crude futures rose $1.19 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $81.99 a barrel, after hitting their highest since late November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.61, or 2.1%, to $79.46. The contract touched a session high of $80.24.
Russia sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan to help quell a countrywide uprising after deadly violence spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet state. There were no indications that oil production in Kazakhstan has been affected so far. The country produces about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. Meanwhile in Libya, oil output was at 729,000 barrels per day, the National Oil Corp said, down from a high of more than 1.3 million bpd last year, owing to maintenance and oilfield shutdowns. Global benchmark Brent's six-month backwardation stood at about $4 a barrel, its widest since late November. Backwardation is a market structure where current prices trade at a premium to future prices and is usually a sign of a bullish market. Prices have rallied since the start of the year despite OPEC+ sticking to an agreed output target rise and a surge in U.S. fuel stockpiles. "OPEC production, while it did increase, disappointed the market - it is not going to be enough to keep up with demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. OPEC+, a group that includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, agreed on Tuesday to add another 400,000 bpd of supply in February, as it has done each month since August as it gradually relaxes 2020's cuts as demand recovers from the pandemic. However, the increase in OPEC's output in December has again undershot the rise planned under the OPEC+ deal, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, highlighting capacity constraints. JP Morgan forecast Brent to average at $88 a barrel in 2022, up from $70 last year. "Our reference case now assumes the alliance will fully phase out the remaining 2.96 million bpd of oil production cuts by September 2022," the bank's analysts said in a note. Government data on Wednesday showed that U.S. gasoline inventories surged by more than 10 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly build since April 2020, as supplies backed up at refineries because of reduced fuel demand. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's top consumer, have fallen for six consecutive weeks by the end of the year to 417.9 million barrels, their lowest since September, the data showed. U.S. crude futures suggest supplies will remain tight early in the new year. A barrel of oil for delivery in June is selling at a $4.10 premium to a barrel for delivery in December, the highest since Nov. 2, a signal of near-term rising demand. Meanwhile, the world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, cut the official selling price for all grades of crude it sells to Asia in February by at least $1 a barrel, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices that rallied 50% in 2021 will power further ahead this year, some analysts predict, saying a lack of production capacity and limited investment in the sector could lift crude to $90 or even above $100 a barrel. Though the Omicron coronavirus variant has pushed COVID-19 cases far above peaks hit last year, analysts say oil prices will be supported by the reluctance of many governments to restore the strict restrictions that hammered the global economy when the pandemic took hold in 2020. Brent crude futures traded near $85 on Wednesday, hitting two-month highs. "Assuming China doesn't suffer a sharp slowdown, that Omicron actually becomes Omi-gone, and with OPEC+’s ability to raise production clearly limited, I see no reason why Brent crude cannot move towards $100 in Q1, possibly sooner," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, are gradually relaxing the output cuts implemented when demand collapsed in 2020. However, many smaller producers can't raise supply and others have been wary of pumping too much oil in case of renewed COVID-19 setbacks.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude will hit $90 a barrel in the third quarter of this year. With the prospect of depleting crude inventories and low spare capacity by the second half of 2022, and limited investments in the oil and gas sector, the market will have little margin of safety, the bank said. JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Wednesday that they could see oil prices rising by up to $30 after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Bloomberg lowered OPEC capacity estimates for 2022 by 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.2 million bpd respectively.
However, the bank added that it also expects oil prices to "overshoot" to $125 a barrel this year, and $150 in 2023. Rystad Energy's senior vice-president of analysis Claudio Galimberti said if OPEC was disciplined and wanted to keep the market tight, it could boost prices to $100. However, he said he did not consider this a likely scenario and while oil could "momentarily" reach above $90 this year, downward pressure on prices would come from production increases in Canada, Norway, Brazil and Guyana. Omani Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhi also said on Tuesday that the group doesn't want to see $100 barrels of oil. "The world is not ready for that," Al Rumhi was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. High oil prices, which also drive up gasoline and diesel prices, could keep inflation uncomfortably high well into 2022 amid snarled global supply chains, slowing the economic recovery from the pandemic in many countries. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, has raised its 2022 Brent forecast by $8 to $75 a barrel and its 2023 Brent forecast by $17 to $77. In a Reuters poll in late December, 35 economists and analysts forecast Brent would average $73.57 a barrel in 2022, about 2% lower than $75.33 consensus in November. The forecast shows the average price for the year, not the peak. Brent prices have not touched $90 and $100 since 2014, when they were retreating from a high above $115 to as low as $57 by the end of the year.
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Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2021-10-02 06:58 |